Week 10 marks the official start of the back half of the season and there are plenty of matchups worth tuning into. It also features the final International Series game of 2024 with a Giants-Panthers matchup in Munich. That game is available exclusively on NFL Network.
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Sunday, Week 10 -- Top 5 games to watch
- WHERE: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
- WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
There is a rookie versus veteran showdown on Sunday in Maryland. Jayden Daniels and Russell Wilson have each exceeded expectations this season and, in doing so, have led their teams to the top of their divisions.
The Commanders offense is the top-ranked team in overall rushing efficiency and second in overall passing efficiency. However, they will have arguably their toughest defensive test so far this season, as they face a Steelers defense ranked in the top five in 10 defensive categories on NFL Pro. Both teams are sure to have their work cut out for them and a win for either squad will be a huge statement.
NFL Pro Insight for Steelers-Commanders
The Steelers defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards over expected (-82) and third-fewest EPA per carry (-0.22) when facing designed runs this season. They have a 19.5% missed tackle rate on designed runs, the second lowest in the league.
The Commanders have generated +0.04 EPA per carry on designed runs this season, one of only four teams to generate positive EPA per carry on such carries. Additionally, the Commanders have gained more rushing yards than expected on 37.1% of carries on designed runs, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
- WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
The 49ers had a Week 9 bye after their win over the Cowboys in Week 8. The bye might have come at the perfect time, as Christian McCaffrey’s practice window opened for return at the beginning of this week. No team in the league has been bit harder by the injury bug than the 49ers, but they have found a way to win three of their last five games despite that, which is a testament to how good this team is
The Bucs lost on Monday to the Chiefs in overtime, but there were a lot of things done very well. The loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is noticeable on offense, but not dismantling, thanks to offensive coordinator Liam Coen and Baker Mayfield’s unwillingness to go down without a fight. The Bucs' defense sacked Patrick Mahomes four times (most by an opponent this year) and recovered a fumble. It ultimately ended in their third straight loss, adding to a now 4-5 record that doesn’t accurately depict how good this team is.
NFL Pro Insight for 49ers-Buccaneers
Mayfield has scrambled a league-high 14 times on third down this season, gaining 106 yards and six first downs. He has generated six explosive gains (10+ yards) on his third down scrambles this season, the most in the NFL. On early downs, Mayfield has scrambled 10 times for 83 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers defense has faced just eight scramble attempts all season, tied for the second fewest in the NFL. Across their eight scrambles faced, they have allowed 96 yards and a touchdown (12.0 YPC).
- WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
- WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets beat the Texans in a big way in Week 9 to keep their season alive. The defense made some significant strides, and the offense had a big second half. However, across the board, they are still figuring out their identity. They need a win here to prove that beating Houston wasn’t a one-off.
Arizona is starting to turn heads. Not only do the Cardinals now lead the NFC West, but they’ve won four of their last five games and just put a beat down a solid Bears team. The defense has improved every game, especially the run defense, which has allowed just an average of 92.7 yards over the last three games (fifth), compared to 132.9 yards on the year (22nd).
NFL Pro Insight for Jets-Cardinals
Kyler Murray has been effective passing outside the pocket this season with the third-most yards per attempt (9.3) and the second-highest passing EPA (+16.8) and success rate (54.8%). He has also avoided negative plays, with zero interceptions and the fourth-lowest sack rate outside the pocket (7.1%).
The Jets defense has allowed the fourth-lowest success rate (20.3%) and the seventh-lowest completion percentage over expected (-4.6%) on passes outside the pocket.
- WHERE: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
The Chiefs continue to win games despite some holes in their roster. This scrappiness earned them another win in Week 9 -- leave it to Patrick Mahomes to lead a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime. This is just a team you cannot count out. It doesn’t matter if parts of their team aren’t elite on paper because they’ve paved their own way of doing things and it seems to be working so far.
Despite the discrepancy in records, this looks to be a competitive game between a pair of division rivals. The Broncos have been a pleasant surprise, winning five of their last seven games, but they struggle to step up to the plate against elite teams. Last year, they had a similar tendency with an objectively worse team and held the Chiefs to no touchdowns in their upset win over them.
NFL Pro Insight for Broncos-Chiefs
Despite completing a league-high 72 passes to tight ends this season, Patrick Mahomes has generated only +3.9 EPA on such passes (23rd in the NFL).
The Broncos have allowed -16.6 EPA on throws targeting tight ends this season (third fewest in the NFL), recording a league-high three interceptions on such passes. Mahomes has thrown a league-leading five interceptions on targets towards tight ends this season.
- WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
The Bills are well-positioned to run away with the AFC East title again this year. On both sides of the ball, they are dominant, backed by their second-ranked point differential (+87). However, they also tend to allow middle-of-the-pack teams (like the Colts) to stay in games.
The Colts have suffered the highs and lows of a season as much as any other team. Joe Flacco has been entrusted to take the team in a better direction and is 2-2 as a starter with seven touchdowns. Depending on his performance here, might we see Anthony Richardson take back over?
NFL Pro Insight for Bills-Colts
Josh Allen has produced the fourth-most total EPA against the blitz (+31.8) among qualified quarterbacks this season. Against man blitzes, Allen has completed 27 of his 50 pass attempts for a league-high 448 yards and 11 touchdowns.
While the Colts defense has blitzed on only 22.7% of opponents' dropbacks (seventh lowest), they have generated the fourth-highest rate (49.3%) when blitzing.
