According to the endless string of parental experts dominating my current Instagram algorithm, toddlers don't lie to deceive. Rather, these tenderfoot fibbers innocently attempt to navigate new learning and development functions. Most rug-rat lies come unknowingly, as a wishcast, to explore new behavior or avoid negative reactions.
The deceit comes later.
Week 1 is the lying toddler of the NFL season.
It lies -- oh boy, does it lie -- unwittingly, without malice or forethought. It provides glimpses that will be undone in a week. Some lies are glaring. Others, a muddled mixture that could lead to a slippery slope.
Best not to believe everything you saw this past week. The minute sample size -- coupled with the innate randomness of the NFL -- means only slivers of what we sensed in Week 1 ultimately will prove to be even remotely true come New Year's Day.
Treat Week 1 like a lying toddler. Smile, gently correcting if necessary, knowing there is no ill will.
During the first 16 games of the 2024 campaign, narratives were born. Some are simple overactions to the Week 1 lies. Others contain nuggets of truth that could cast an ominous shadow over the rest of the season. Which are which? Let's take a look.
Passing attacks have been grounded: OVERREACTION
After the opening weekend of the 2023 season saw just 37 touchdown passes across the league, this year's Week 1 air-score tally dipped even lower to 34. The good folks over at NFL Research point out that this stands in stark contrast to the span from 2018 through 2022, when there were an average of 54.8 passing TDs in Week 1. Only two quarterbacks -- Tua Tagovailoa (338) and Matthew Stafford (317) -- threw for 300-plus yards last week, marking the first time since 2005 that fewer than three players hit the mark. Of 32 starting QBs, 17 just threw for fewer than 200 yards in the season opener.
The obvious thing to glean from the above facts is that offenses are starting slower these days. Why? Well, I think you can look at recent changes to training camp and the escalating trend of sitting starters during the preseason. For many offenses, Week 1 is the zygote stage. Teams used to get more reps in during camp and the preseason. Now, by making camps safer, and with many stars sitting out the preseason, growth doesn't happen in the petri dish -- it comes live, in real regular-season action. With that, offenses are still ramping up after the new campaign kicks off. This is particularly true of offensive lines, which take time to coalesce, something padless practices don't always provide.
The NFL has been fighting a scoring malaise for a few years, with defenses hell-bent on taking away explosive plays, but let's give it at least a month before we sound any alarm bells. After all, passing might have been down, but total scoring was at 45.8 total points per game, which is higher than last year's Week 1 average (41.0).
Deshaun Watson continues to struggle: BAD OMEN
Watson's denied a new allegation of off-field malfeasance, but I'm here to assess his on-field performance. On that front, the Browns keep waiting for Watson to recapture his magic. It's not happening. At home against Dallas, the quarterback was rattled. He airmailed pass after pass, rarely seeming in rhythm, heaving throws instead of pinpointing the ball. He lacked awareness, lacked confidence, lacked feel, lacked accuracy. It was U-G-L-Y ugly. This tidbit from Next Gen Stats encapsulates Watson's week: He registered the largest average air yards differential (AYD) of the week at -6.3. Spelling that out, he averaged 8.8 air yards per attempt (seventh) ... and just 2.5 air yards per completion (tied for second-lowest).
If this were a one-off performance from Watson, perhaps you could chalk it up to playing behind a decimated, struggling offensive line against a good Cowboys pass rush. However, this isn't new; it's the extension of most of Watson's starts in Cleveland. Plus, Watson is paid like a quarterback who can overcome O-line difficulties. Instead, he simply doesn't look like a functional signal-caller at this point. Playing in just 12 games over a three-year stretch from 2021 through 2023 has Watson looking shell-shocked in 2024. The lack of awareness -- which led to crunching hits Sunday -- might be the biggest loss Watson incurred while sitting out all those games. It might never come back.
Derrick Henry looks washed in Baltimore: OVERREACTION
If you want to put Henry's usage in the BAD OMEN category, that's fine. It probably depends on your expectations for the bulldozing back. If you thought he was still going to get 25 carries per game, you're sorely disappointed. My vision entering the campaign was closer to the expectation John Harbaugh verbalized this week: Henry will be a complementary piece in this Lamar Jackson-led offense, not the engine.
The Ravens are better when Jackson has the ball in his hands. Plain and simple. Henry's presence should help keep defenses honest, and he'll likely have a few games in which Baltimore rides him heavily. But not most weeks. The presence of Justice Hill as a pass-catching back and questions along the offensive line will cap Henry's ceiling. But he should still get the bulk of the red-zone carries as a goal-line battering ram. Henry's $8 million-per-year contract told us in the offseason how the Ravens view him: as an important piece, but not an every-down bell cow like those making $5-10 million more. Calibrating expectations is important.
Packers are toast after Jordan Love's injury: OVERREACTION
Interestingly, some of the same people who cringed at Love's massive new contract also declared Green Bay's season over after he crumbled to the turf at Arena Corinthians. Doublethink is a heck of a drug. Yes, the Packers were the only NFC North team to lose Week 1, and they don't have a proven backup to lean on in Love's stead. Those are facts. They tell an incomplete story.
First of all, the Packers' optimism -- keeping Love off injured reserve -- means he should be back on the earlier side of the reported 3-to-6-week window for recovery from an MCL sprain. Secondly, the easier early-season schedule might no longer be as advantageous with Malik Willis under center, but Matt LaFleur is one of the top coaches in the NFL. He can prove it during this run. Third, Green Bay's roster isn't some slop-fest outside of the quarterback and should be able to buoy the operation until Love returns. If Jeff Hafley's new defense is what we thought it could be entering the year, the Packers should stay in ballgames. And lastly, lest we forget, Green Bay got off to a slow start last season and still found its way to the postseason.
Writing off the Pack after Week 1 because Love might miss a few games is folly. As one Packer Backer is fond of saying, lotta ballgame left.
Rookies quarterbacks can't play: OVERREACTION
It isn't a new phenomenon for young-buck quarterbacks to come out of the gate with issues. Frankly, it's more of a surprise when they don't. Reminder: Some of the best Week 1 performances by rookie signal-callers in the past decade have come from the likes of Gardner Minshew and Carson Wentz. Let's slow our roll before judging young players off one game. Caleb Williams had issues, missing throws and bailing backward behind a porous interior, but still flashed a cannon on the move. He also didn't make the boneheaded mistake like his second-year counterpart did on Sunday. Jayden Daniels was the best of the bunch, flashing dynamic ability with his legs, but he needs to trust his reads better moving forward. And, sure, Bo Nix looked closer to Nathan Peterman than Drew Brees, but what did you expect from a quarterback making his NFL debut in a road game at Seattle against a Mike Macdonald defense?
Bad days are going to happen, particularly for newbies. Have we forgotten this lesson just because C.J. Stroud authored an historic rookie campaign last year? The key for this first-round trio -- and every rookie who got off to a wobbly start -- is learning from errors and not repeating them. Mistakes can turn into a good thing if the lessons are properly digested. To steal a quote from the ever-wise Gabby's Dollhouse: "Whoopies, I made a mistake, and it's OK. Whoopsies are what it takes to get better and better every day." (Yes, I have a 2- and 4-year-old).
Kirk Cousins doesn't look healthy: BAD OMEN
Raheem Morris didn't sound worried about Cousins' health following the quarterback's lackluster Falcons debut in Atlanta's 18-10 loss to Pittsburgh. I'm going to respectfully disagree with the esteemed coach. The Falcons can insist the 36-year-old is recovered from his Achilles tear all they want, but they tell on themselves when they run zero play-action passes over an entire game and just one non-spike snap from under center. Those are staples of the Sean McVay offense. Unless Zac Robinson brought a completely foreign offense than the one he spent the past five years coaching in, what else could be the reason for those play-decision oddities other than Cousins being hindered?
It wasn't just the lack of mobility, either. At times, Cousins wasn't pushing off his back foot, leaving passes lacking zip. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is also coming off an Achilles tear from last season, but he suffered the injury about seven weeks before Cousins, inherently giving him a jump-start on rehab. Rodgers, at 40, also didn't appear as mobile as in the past in Week 1, but didn't seem to have the same trouble stepping into his throws as Cousins. Perhaps Cousins will get to that place as he gets further from the injury, but most players get more worn down as the season goes, not the other way around.
If this is Cousins healthy, as Morris said, that performance is an ominous sign to start the season. Reminder: While Tom Brady has the world's belief that QBs can age gracefully, most of history tells us they hit a cliff and fall off. That Michael Penix Jr. pick could prove more prescient than expected in Year 1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown gets paid ... and disappears: OVERREACTION
Maybe St. Brown needs Netflix to start following him around again -- kidding! The star receiver put up three catches for 13 yards in the Lions' overtime defeat of the Rams. Not a career-worst outing, but it was his least-productive game since Week 7 of 2022 -- and in that contest, he played just 10 snaps. Sunday night, he played 60. It certainly wasn't the kind of performance Detroit expected after giving him $30 million per year, but we'll likely look back at it as an outlier. The Rams did an excellent job smothering the in-breaking routes that Jared Goff loves to throw. As such, St. Brown was quieted. Detroit also struggled to extend drives for long stretches, negating chances.
More importantly for the Lions, all that attention on the Sun God opened up one-on-one matchups for Jameson Williams, who exploded with five catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. That's precisely the type of complementary role Brad Holmes envisioned when drafting Jamo. The WR duo can be lethal together. Some weeks, it will be St. Brown feasting over the middle. Others: bombs to Williams. Pick your elixir.
And St. Brown wasn't the only member of the Lions' offense to struggle on Sunday. The entire operation looked off. Chalk it up to zero preseason action and presume Ben Johnson's unit will get back on track. That the Lions came out with a victory despite less-than-stellar play is a turnabout. It used to be the other way around in Detroit.
Justin Herbert's a handoff machine: BAD OMEN (if you were hoping for stats!)
Anyone looking for fantasy numbers need not have applied. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to run the ball. It's in their DNA. We knew this. Couple that with the fact that Herbert's top targets from past years are all gone, and you get a passing operation that will take time to get up to speed and probably will always sit below the aerial attack from Herbert's first few campaigns, statistically.
In four seasons in San Francisco, Harbaugh never had a passer hit the 3,500-yard mark, and his teams finished 29th or worse in pass attempts each campaign. Sure, that was 10-plus years ago, and neither Alex Smith nor Colin Kaepernick was a Herbert clone, but we shouldn't be surprised with how Harbaugh clubs operate. He managed the game the same at Michigan.
The key for Herbert is making plays on third downs and in the red zone. He didn't in Sunday's 22-10 win over Las Vegas. The Chargers were 4-of-15 on third downs and 2-of-4 in the red zone. No bueno. Two of the third-down conversions were runs. (In fairness, though, one of the non-conversions was the end-of-game kneel.) Maybe a good sign: His final third-down went for a game-sealing TD to Ladd McConkey. With a green WR crew, we shouldn't expect the big-armed QB to stack massive numbers. But the Chargers do need him to be better on key downs.
The reality for Chargers fans: You've seen the stats piled up before. The W is all that matters.
Jets' defense has issues: BAD OMEN
Defenses aren't as reliably consistent year to year as offenses, so perhaps a nose-dive from Robert Saleh's crew could be predictable.
Monday night's result wasn't a bad omen because the Jets couldn't get off the field on the road against a Kyle Shanahan offense that had months to prepare. No. With that setup, the 49ers can torch most defenses. My concern is how New York got tortured in the 32-19 loss to San Francisco. The run D was sloppy, with guys missing or overrunning lanes. The pass rush was absent for most of the contest. Two of the Jets' three sacks came from DBs. Gang Green still has studs in Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, Sauce Gardner and Quincy Williams, but the depth is missing. Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV must make leaps, but they didn't show much in Week 1. Haason Reddick certainly gained some leverage in his contract squabble Monday night.
I'm not going to overact about the Jets. The sky isn't falling on the franchise (yet). New York's next four games will tell us much more about its season than one prime-time opener on the road against the reigning NFC Champs. But if there is a regression from the defense, Saleh's crew could be one that beats up the downtrodden and gets nailed by the big boys.
Will Levis melts down: BAD OMEN
I was prepared to leave Levis off my list until I saw this quote from first-year Titans coach Brian Callahan on Monday: "We were playing so good on defense. It was almost as if we'd just punted it on first-and-10 every time, we might have won the game, the way we gave it away."
Ummmmm. Oof.
Callahan was attempting to complement his defense following the 24-17 loss in Chicago, but gee golly is that difficult to read as anything other than tossing Levis and the offense under the bus. Levis was scattershot all game on Sunday, missing deep shots he should hit and making a few poor reads. Then there was that self-proclaimed boneheaded play that gave Chicago the game-winning score.
Levis was under siege by a Bears defense with big question marks at pass rusher opposite Montez Sweat. Chicago pressured him on 47.4 percent of dropbacks, per NGS. That is not good for the revamped O-line. Worse, Levis went 5-of-13 for 61 yards and two INTs under pressure.
Callahan's offense requires timing routes buoyed by the occasional big plays. The QB must be in rhythm, know his reads and get the ball out quickly. At times, Levis displays that ability. But some snaps, he fails miserably.
It's not a good omen for the quarterback in charge when the head coach is quipping about punting on first down. A few more boneheaded plays from the QB and Callahan could see if Mason Rudolph is a better fit for the style he wants to run. The coach can't keep wasting excellent efforts from his defense without recourse.
