Thanksgiving is in the books. We're stuffed. We're filled to the brim with the holiday spirit. And some of us got a lead, or are behind, heading into the weekend after the three Thursday games. That means we need to cut out the emotion and look at the facts. Here are some numbers that can get you on the direct path to winning Week 12:
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
In Week 10, prior to the Browns bye week, Baker Mayfield completed 17 of his 20 pass attempts for 216 yards and three touchdowns, no interceptions. That led to a 151.3 passer rating. Mayfield is the only rookie quarterback in NFL history with a 150-plus passer rating on 20-plus pass attempts. Only Ryan Tannehill in Week 5 scored less than 16 fantasy points against the Bengals all year.
Over his last six games against the Browns, Andy Dalton threw 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Dalton's 10 interceptions so far this season are tied for the fourth most in the league.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Among running backs with at least 100 carries on the season, Matt Breida leads the league, averaging 5.59 yards per carry.
Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick have combined for 270.54 fantasy points this season (no bonuses). That would make them the second highest scoring quarterback, just behind Patrick Mahomes. The Buccaneers franchise drafted 25 quarterbacks over their 40-plus years of existence. None of them were ever offered a second contract.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Leonard Fournette played in Weeks 10 and 11 after sitting out due to injury since Week 4. Over the last two weeks, he has the most carries (52) in the league. Second is Saquon Barkley with 47 carries. Fournette scored three combined touchdowns in those games. This week he'll face the Bills, who have allowed six touchdowns over their last four games to opposing running backs.
Despite only playing in six games this year, Josh Allen is one of four quarterbacks in the league with 150-plus rushing yards and three-plus rushing touchdowns on the season. Allen has only thrown two touchdowns this year. Jacksonville has allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, tied for the third most in the league.
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Four tight ends have over 500 receiving yards and at least four touchdowns: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, O.J. Howard, and Jared Cook.
Lamar Jackson carried the ball 27 times in his first NFL start in Week 11 against the Bengals. His 117 rushing yards were the most among a quarterback in their first game in NFL history and he's the only quarterback to put up over 100 rushing yards in a game this season. To put the amount of carried into perspective, only five times all season has a running back carried the ball more than 27 times in a game.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks last played the Panthers in December 2016. In that game, Tyler Lockett scored a touchdown on a 75-yard run play. That's the only rushing touchdown of his career. Lockett's seven receiving touchdowns this season are tied with Adam Thielen for the seventh most in the league.
According to Pro Football Focus, from Weeks 5 through 11, D.J. Moore ranks first in yards after the catch (8.89), first in yards after contact per reception (5.50), and fourth in forced missed tackles after the catch (0.21).
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Currently, Rob Gronkowski averages 64.0 yards per game, the lowest since his rookie season. Despite the down year, only Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle average more yards per game.
Chris Herndon is the only rookie tight end with over 250 receiving yards and three touchdowns this year. From Weeks 6 through 10, Herndon was the ninth highest fantasy scoring tight end in PPR formats.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Over his last two games, Eli Manning has only averaged 18 completions for 209.5 passing yards per game. But he's also thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions. In Week 11, his 94.4 completion percentage tied for the third best of any NFL quarterback in history with at least 15 completions. When he played the Eagles in Week 6, Manning only completed 55.9 percent of his pass attempts and had his second worst fantasy outing of the year.
Alshon Jeffery has four or more catches in all but one game this year. His best game of the year came against the Giants in Week 6 when he caught eight of his 12 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Jeffery hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7, and four of his seven games ended with less than 50 yards and no score.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
David Johnson has 21 or more carries in each of the two games since the Cardinals' bye. Before the Week 9 bye, he only saw 20-plus carries in one game. Week 11 was the first time Johnson rushed for over 100 yards all year.
Melvin Gordon did miss one game this year due to injury. In his nine games played, his worse PPR scoring game was in Week 3 when he scored 16.4 fantasy points. That is the highest floor among any running back in the league. The Cardinals allow the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Danny Amendola has five or more catches in each of his last five games. In Week 10 before the Dolphins bye, Amendola caught seven passes for 72 yards. Over the Dolphins' last three games, only Brock Osweiler has been on the field more than Amendola, who's played in 93 percent of Miami's offensive snaps.
Buffalo and Oakland are in the top-ten in allowing PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs. Marlon Mack averaged 30.4 fantasy points when facing those two teams this season. Jacksonville and Tennessee are bottom-ten when allowing fantasy points to running backs, and in those two games, Mack averaged 10.9 fantasy points. This week he'll face the Dolphins who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to backs.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger came into Week 12 as the fourth highest scoring fantasy quarterback. Only Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, and Jared Goff had more fantasy points. Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill are tied for the most receiving touchdowns in the league (11). In three of his last four games against the Broncos, Roethlisberger has thrown three or more touchdowns.
As a Steeler, Emmanuel Sanders caught 161 passes for 2,030 yards and 11 touchdowns. In his last game against Pittsburgh, Sanders caught 10 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for an additional 24 yards.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Jimmy Graham has only one catch in three of his last four games. His average amount of catches per game has declined every season since 2011. He's also playing with a broken thumb.
Adam Thielen put up 100-plus yards in each of his first eight games of the season. He hasn't gone over 66 yards in his last two. However, Stefon Diggs has over 100 yards in those two games. Only once this season has a Viking rushed over 100 yards. It was in Week 6 versus Arizona. And it was Latavius Murray.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Before the Titans' Week 8 bye, Jonnu Smith never went over 12 receiving yards and had zero touchdowns on the season. From Weeks 9 to 11, Smith has double-digit PPR fantasy points in each outing. He scored a touchdown in two of the three weeks.
Demaryius Thomas played in 73 percent of the Texans' snaps in Week 11, while Keke Coutee played in 67 percent. Thomas saw one target. It wasn't a catch. Coutee led the team with 77 receiving yards. Thomas only has three catches over the two games he's played with Houston.
