By Kyle Fisher
Matchups can play a big role in whom to start and whom to sit in a fantasy lineup. Throughout this season we will provide statistical-based data to give fantasy owners with the best information to make these crucial decisions easier. We try not to overstate the obvious, as we understand that there are certain must-start players every week (Tomlinson, Manning, Brady, Harrison, etc.). What we will provide is information on players whose performances should either be greatly enhanced or adversely affected due to the week's matchup. If a particular player is not mentioned, it does not mean you shouldn't start him. What it means is that there is no statistical data that indicates that his performance is either greatly enhanced or adversely affected by the matchup. In other words, he should perform at around his expected average performance. Now let's get to the matchups for Week 1.
Thursday
The Colts and Saints have two of the top three passing offenses in the NFL. The Saints led the NFL with 281.4 yards per game passing while the Colts were second with 269.3 yards per game. Some owners may be concerned that the Colts were ranked second in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 159.3 yards per game while the Saints were third with 178.4 yards per game. However, looking deeper into the statistics, the Colts were 30th in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed with 20, while the Saints were 20th in yards per completion allowed at 11.7 YPC. The passing games should be fine in this matchup. Deuce McAllister looks to have increased value against the Colt defense. The Colts played in 12 games last season against rushers who ended the year with 1,000-plus yards. The Colts allowed an average of 5.2 YPC against these backs. This does not include the 269 yards gained in two games by Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew, the 153 yards gained by Houston's Ron Dayne or the 136 yards gained by Denver's Mike Bell. The Colts' Adam Vinatieri was 18 of 18 in field goals and 27 of 27 in extra points in eight home games last season.
Sunday
The Dolphins were seventh in the NFL against the run in 2006, giving up just 101.1 yards per game, while the Redskins were fourth in rushing offense, gaining 138.5 yards per game. The Dolphins look to have the statistical advantage in this battle and should limit the production of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. The Dolphins played against four top-10 rushing teams in the NFL in 2006 and gave up and average of just 109 yards per game on 3.9 YPC. Meanwhile, the Redskins defense was 31st in the NFL against the run, giving up an average of 137.3 yards per game. Look for Ronnie Brown's value in this matchup to be increased. Last season, Brown played in six games against defenses ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL against the run. In those games, he averaged just under 97 yards per game at almost 5.0 YPC. Look for Brown to get a lot of carries against the Redskins.
2007 NFL.com fantasy football content schedule
- Monday: Monday morning quarterback, Rotowire's risers & fallers
- Tuesday: Fabiano's experts column, Rotowire's value meter and depth chart tracker
- Wednesday: Fantasy mailbag, NFL injury report analysis, Rotowire's IDP focus
- Thursday: Lineup rankings, Start 'Em & Sit 'Em, Rotowire's fantasy matchups
- Friday: NFL injury report analysis, Rotowire's game capsules
- Saturday: Gil Brandt's fantasy matchups
- Sunday: AM & PM inactives, Day-long fantasy blog, Sunday's best and worst performances
This is again a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Rams were fourth in passing offense at 247.6 yards per game, while the Panthers were fourth in the NFL in pass defense at 187.5 yards per game. Last season in Charlotte, the Panthers shut out the Rams 15-0, and quarterback Marc Bulger was held to just 142 yards passing. Don't look for this to be the case this time for two reasons. One is that Bulger may be the best quarterback in the NFL when playing at home. Last season, in eight home games, Bulger averaged almost 300 yards per game passing and threw 17 touchdowns. Second, in the six games in 2006 when the Panthers played against Top 10 passing teams, they were dreadful. In those games, the Panthers gave up an average of 258 yards per game through the air and 1.5 touchdowns per game. The Panthers offense should be able to take advantage of the Rams' poor run defense. The Rams ranked 31st in this category in 2006 and both DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster's value is increased in this matchup. The Rams' Jeff Wilkins is one of the better kickers at home in the NFL. Last season he averaged 8.9 ppg, 2.1 fgm and made 11 kicks of 40-plus yards in the Edward R. Jones Dome.
The main thing that sticks out from a team perspective in this matchup is the Patriots' ability to stop the run. The Patriots were fifth in run defense, giving up just 94.2 yards per game. While both Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison are out, the Patriots defense still should be able to control the Jets' ground game and make this a tough matchup for Thomas Jones. The Patriots held the Jets to just 76.3 yards per game and 3.5 YPC in three games last season. The Jets did not fare much better against the other five teams they played with Top 10 run defenses. The Jets averaged 101.2 yards per game on just 3.4 YPC. Where the Jets did find success was in the passing game, particularly receiver Jerricho Cotchery. In three games, Cotchery averaged 107 yards per game and caught three touchdowns. The Jets' Mike Nugent was a perfect 13 of 13 in field goals at home last season. The Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski struggled on the road, making just 6 of 10 field goals and was just 1 of 4 from beyond 30 yards.
This matchup is full of surprises and changes. The Falcons have a new coach and a new quarterback while the Vikings lost their defensive coordinator, who went on to become the head coach of the Steelers. The Vikings were the top-ranked run defense in the NFL last season, allowing only 61.6 yards per game on 2.8 YPC. Values for either Warrick Dunn or Jerious Norwood are downgraded in this matchup. While Atlanta led the league in rushing yards last season, its offense has changed due to the suspension of Michael Vick and the new offensive scheme from new head coach Bobby Petrino. Joey Harrington's value could be increased in this game. The Vikings were last in the NFL in pass defense and Harrington could have some success in Petrino's offense. Tight end Alge Crumpler could also have a nice day. The Vikings averaged giving up 6.4 catches per game and just under 90 yards per game last season to the opponents' No. 1 targeted receiver. Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson's value is increased in this matchup. Although he has not developed into a top-level NFL passer yet, Jackson faces a Falcons defense that was just 29th in the league against the pass last season.
This game features two teams that rely heavily on the run to move the ball. The Titans were fifth in the NFL in rushing last season, while the Jaguars ranked third. Both teams have work to do in the passing game, as the Titans ranked 30th, while the Jaguars ranked 24th. The difference is that the Jaguars are a much better defensive team at this point than the Titans. The Jaguars were fourth in the NFL against the run last season and shut down the Titans in two contests last season to the tune of just 74.5 yards per game on 3.1 YPC. The value for Vince Young is downgraded in this matchup. In addition to being stymied in the running game, Young averaged just 124 yards passing and threw three interceptions against the Jaguars last season. Jaguars quarterback David Garrard's value is on the rise after averaging 205 yards passing per game and two touchdowns per game. Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big effort, as he averaged 115 total yards per game against the Titans last season. Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee was the leading home scoring kicker in the NFL last season with 74 points and he averaged 2.1 fgm at home last season.
Both teams come into this game with new starting quarterbacks. The Chiefs rely on the ground game, as they ranked ninth in the NFL in rushing. They should meet little resistance, as the Texans were 20th in the NFL against the run, giving up 122.3 yards per game on 4.4 YPC. The Texans passing game should be much improved with quarterback Matt Schaub. The upgrade at quarterback should be good news for Andre Johnson, who averaged just 11.1 YPC last season. Look for these numbers to go up in this matchup significantly. The Texans may also have the opportunity to get Ahman Green going, as the Chiefs ranked 18th in the league against the run giving up 120.5 yards per game on 4.2 YPC. Texans' kicker Kris Brown is downgraded, as he was just 27th in the league in home scoring last season scoring just 41 points on one field goal made per game.
Offenses should rule this matchup. Both teams ranked in the Top 10 in passing last season. Look for Reggie Brown to be a big recipient of those yards from quarterback Donovan McNabb. McNabb was outstanding on the road last season. In his four starts he averaged almost 290 yards per game and 2.5 touchdowns per game. The Eagles ranked just 26th in the league against the run last season. If healthy, rookie running back Brandon Jackson's value is upgraded in this matchup. The Eagles were just 26th in the league against the run averaging 136.4 yards per game on 4.5 YPC. Quarterback Brett Favre was much less statistically relevant at home last season averaging just 213 yards per game and .75 touchdowns per game as compared to his road stats of almost 275 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns per game.
The Steelers offense has the opportunity to put up big numbers in this matchup. The Browns ranked 29th in the NFL against the run last season, and Steelers running back Willie Parker lit them up for 223 yards in their second meeting last season. In Parker's other matchup, he scored a couple of touchdowns. Ben Roethlisberger's value is increased against the Browns after throwing for almost 250 yards per game and three touchdowns. Look for Santonio Holmes' value to also increase as a result of Roethlisberger's success. Holmes averaged almost 80 yards per game as a rookie against the Browns. The Cleveland running game, specifically Jamal Lewis, should be downgraded against a Steeler defense than gave up 88.3 yards per game on 3.5 YPC. However, all is not doom-and-gloom for the Browns offense. Receiver Braylon Edwards' value is upgraded against the Steelers 20th-rated pass defense. Last season he averaged 111.5 yards per game and caught a touchdown against the Steelers. Downgrade Browns kicker Phil Dawson, as he scored just 29 points in eight home games last season.
The Bills' 28th-ranked defense against the run should get tested early and often by Broncos running back Travis Henry. Broncos receiver Javon Walker also has the potential to have a big day. While the Bills ranked seventh in the NFL in pass defense, the team struggled against 1,000-plus yard receivers last season. In five games, those receivers averaged more than six catches per game for almost 80 yards and almost a touchdown per game. The Bills had one of the worst offenses in the NFL last season, finishing 27th in rushing offense and 28th in passing offense. If anyone for the Bills is going to have a big day, it will probably be receiver Lee Evans. The Broncos ranked 21st in the league against the pass and against 1,000-plus yard receivers, gave up an average of 6.3 catches for just under 75 yards per game and .58 touchdowns per game. Bills kicker Rian Lindell is upgraded, as he was 13-of-14 in field goal attempts at home last season.
The Seahawks offense appears to be healthy this season, which means it should easily outperform last year's pedestrian statistics of 14th in rushing offense and 20th in passing offense. With the Buccaneers mediocre defense (17th against the run, 19th against the pass), we see nice matchups for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, running back Shaun Alexander and receiver D.J. Hackett. The Seahawks should get plenty of possessions, as the Buccaneers were 27th in road offense last season, averaging 291.2 yards per game. While the Buccaneers do have new quarterback Jeff Garcia, he doesn't have the talent he had in Philadelphia. His best weapon, receiver Joey Galloway, had a nice matchup against the Seahawks last season, catching eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. We upgrade Galloway's value, as he is the best option for the Buccaneers offense in this matchup. Buccaneers kicker Matt Bryant is downgraded was 29th in road scoring last season with just 37 points.
This is one of the marquee matchups of the weekend. The Chargers ranked second in the NFL in rushing, while the Bears had the sixth-best run defense. While the Bears have been a trendy pick as the top-rated fantasy defense, this may be one of the few cases where you might consider sitting them. Against top-10 offenses last season, the Bears averaged almost 20 ppg, which includes a shutout over the Packers in Week 1, and 376 yards per game. The latter total would have ranked them last, below the lowly Titans, in total defense. On the flip side, the Chargers ranked seventh in the league in run defense and this could spell trouble for Cedric Benson. Last season in four games against Top-10 run defenses, the Bears averaged just 97.5 yards per game on 3.5 YPC. Both kickers' value is on the rise in this matchup. Chargers kicker Nate Keading ranked second in home scoring last season while Bears kicker Robbie Gould was the No.1 ranked road scorer and was 17-of-20 on field goal attempts.
This matchup features the worst rushing offense in the league last season (Lions) against one of the worst offenses in the history of the NFL (Raiders). Detroit moves the ball through the air as it was seventh in the league in passing at 238.8 yards per game. However, the Raiders ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the pass last season, giving up just 150.8 yards per game. While this is an impressive total, upon further inspection, the stats are a little misleading. The Raiders ranked fourth in yards-per-completion allowed at 10.7, but were 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. Furthermore, the Raiders were usually behind because of their offense, and teams controlled the clock by running the ball. Lions quarterback John Kitna's value is on the rise in this matchup, as he was very productive against Top-10 pass defenses last season. In three games, Kitna averaged 270 yards per game and 1.3 touchdowns. The one negative was that he averaged 1.3 interceptions, as well. Kitna's favorite deep threat, Roy Williams was great against these same defenses. In his three games, Williams averaged 142 yards per game with one touchdown. This game also pits the two teams that were sacked the most by opposing defenses last season. The Raiders led the league giving up 72 sacks while the Lions were second giving up 63 sacks.
This matchup pits two of the better rushing offenses against two of the worst passing defenses in the league. The Giants ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing offense, however with Tiki Barber retired, Brandon Jacobs' value is downgraded against a Cowboys defense that allowed just 103.7 yards per game on less than 4.0 YPC. In the two matchups against the Cowboys last season, quarterback Eli Manning was very effective. He averaged 229.5 yards per game and two touchdowns per game. Against a Cowboys defense that ranked just fourth against the pass, the Giants should be able to move the ball in the air. The Giants have their own problems against the pass. Last season, they ranked 28th against the pass. However, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo was unable to take advantage of these opportunities. In his two games, Romo averaged 242 yards per game but was hurt by throwing just two touchdowns and having five passes intercepted. However, with the yards Romo averaged, this will affect Romo's value more than the Cowboys receiving corps.
Monday
The first of two Monday night games features one of the top passing offenses against one of the top overall defenses in the NFL. The Bengals were sixth in the NFL in passing at 239.6 yards per game while the Ravens ranked second in the NFL against the run and sixth against the pass. Carson Palmer had decent numbers against the Ravens, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh was outstanding, but look for Rudi Johnson's value to be diminished against the Raven defense. In two games last season, Johnson averaged just 62.5 yards per game on 3.7 YPC. Ravens quarterback Steve McNair took advantage of the Bengals' 31st-ranked pass defense by averaging 236 yards per game. With the struggles of the Bengal pass defense, look for the values of Todd Heap and Mark Clayton, if healthy, to also be increased in this matchup.
The final contest of the week pits two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Cardinals ranked 30th in the league in pass defense, while the 49ers ranked 26th. Look for both Alex Smith and Matt Leinart's value to be increased in this matchup. Even though the 49ers ranked 29th in passing last season, Smith averaged 239 yards per game passing in two contests against the Cardinals. Because of these numbers, increase 49ers tight end Vernon Davis' value as he could be on the verge of a breakout season. Leinart averaged an even more impressive 284 yards per game. While the 49ers signed Nate Clements to upgrade their secondary, he cannot cover both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.
