Week 10 NFL game picks: Raiders defeat struggling Chiefs; Packers outstrip Seahawks

• WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Jets +12 | O/U: 47.5

The Colts' and Patriots' powerful offensive lines were able to expose Robert Saleh's overaggressive run defense in a way the Bills aren't built for. If the Dolphins' and Jaguars' defenses can compete against the Bills, why not Saleh's group? I'm still not convinced New York can score enough to pull off the upset. Facing the Bills' defense could be the toughest test for a young quarterback to pass, and it's telling the Jets seem to believe more in Mike White's ability to achieve that feat than they do in Zach Wilson's. I'm starting to believe in White, too, at least enough to keep this game competitive. 

• WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• SPREAD: Bucs -9.5 | O/U: 51.5

Ron Rivera rallied his team from a 2-7 record last year to an unlikely NFC East championship. Crawling to seven wins again for this WFT squad feels like a stretch, even in a 17-game season -- and the only reward for seven wins would be a lower 2022 first-round pick. Tampa's secondary is getting healthier, and the Week 9 bye presumably served this veteran team well. The Bucs are my pick to win the Super Bowl, in part because their offense doesn't take weeks off against defenses like Washington's.

• WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• SPREAD: Cowboys -9 | O/U: 54.5

Last week was ugly enough for the Cowboys to start questioning all the goodwill their defense built up over the first half of the season. It will take many more no-shows, however, for there to be reason to truly doubt this juggernaut offense. Tyron Smith's absence was felt, but the mismatches Dallas presents against the lightweight Falcons at nearly every position can't be overstated.

• WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Titans -3 | O/U: 44.5

The Titans being favored by only three points is a reflection of the fact that folks miss Derrick Henry, and that the Saints' defense has earned the benefit of the doubt. It still feels disrespectful after Tennessee dispatched the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams in succession. Trevor Siemian played well enough a week ago, but the mammoth Titans front will create a lot more problems than the Falcons ever could, even if the Saints do have Alvin Kamara. Tennessee's offense can still be operational without Henry, as long as Julio Jones looks as healthy as he did this past Sunday night. 

UPDATE: The Saints ruled out Alvin Kamara (knee), and the Titans placed Julio Jones on injured reserve.

• WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Colts -10.5 | O/U: 47.5

We haven't seen the Colts' best for four quarters against a quality opponent, and there's no guarantee that will happen. We have seen the Colts' offense and defense alternately drop hammers against the AFC's afterthoughts, like the Dolphins, Texans and Jets. The Jaguars' defense has shown too much to believe in a rebirth, and Trevor Lawrence has made fewer big plays -- and fewer mistakes -- since their Week 7 bye. A win here would bring the Colts' record since Week 4 to 5-2, with the the losses coming in overtime to the Ravens and Titans. 

• WHERE: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
• SPREAD: Lions +8 | O/U: 42.5

The Steelers are one of the most consistent teams in football. Their offense strains like a long Ben Roethlisberger pass to arrive, but it usually gets there against poor opponents. T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward are the best at what they do, but the defense isn't what it was in previous years under Mike Tomlin, at least not yet. The Lions are mostly an every-other-week operation. They get a lot of love for moral victories in games where they should be blown out, and they look like the Lions in the other weeks. This sets up as a moral victory week. 

UPDATE: The Steelers announced Saturday that Ben Roethlisberger will be placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and will miss Sunday's game against the Lions.

• WHERE: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Browns +2.5 | O/U: 45

Both teams spoke all week about expecting a physical battle. Bill Belichick is coaching like he coached the 1994 Browns, a style of football that the 2021 Browns are also happy to play. The running game matters more for both of these teams than it does for most, and there's no question which team is better at it. These Patriots will find a way to win plenty of strange, ugly games with their rookie quarterback this season, but I believe the Browns are better built for it, with or without Nick Chubb.

UPDATE: Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said Friday that Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton (COVID-19) won't play Sunday against the Patriots.

• WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
• SPREAD: Chargers -3 | O/U: 53

The Vikings' defense was already going to be in trouble without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson against this Chargers attack. Even if Mike Zimmer can scheme up coverage looks to slow Justin Herbert, Minnesota's coach knows his defense is overworked. Five Vikings starters played 96-98 snaps last week, a preposterous number for a unit without depth. After fighting so hard in so many close losses, this erratic Minnesota squad is overdue to simply get beaten.

• WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
• WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
• SPREAD: Cardinals -10.5 | O/U: 44

P.J. was known as Phillip back when he was a rookie trying to stick with the Jacoby Brissett/Frank Gore era Colts. Five seasons into a career given a big boost by the XFL, Walker will get his second NFL start on Sunday and then should head back to the bench in favor of Cam Newton: The Return. Walker's intriguing preseason snaps have not translated during mop-up duty this year, but Matt Rhule should introduce some offensive wrinkles and Walker can't play worse than Darnold did lately. Unfortunately, Walker's first start this season will come against a team that is second in defensive DVOA. Arizona has repeatedly found the weak spots in offensive lines better than Carolina's and pushed them around without mercy. I only like the Panthers to cover if Kyler Murray is out again.

UPDATE: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both inactive for the Cardinals vs. the Panthers.

• WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Broncos -2.5 | O/U: 45.5

You could tell me literally any outcome will happen in a 2021 Eagles-Broncos game and I would believe it. Denver's sudden defensive resurgence sticks despite injuries and Teddy adots passes all over the field in a Broncos romp? Sure. Philadelphia's sudden run-game resurgence grinds the Broncos' third-string linebackers to dirt in an Eagles romp? Bring it. The only certainty here is that the winning quarterback will get less shine for his role in the outcome than the losing quarterback gets blame.

• WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
• WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
• SPREAD: Packers -3 | O/U: 49.5

The assumption in the point spread above is that Aaron Rodgers plays. The two weeks of practice that Rodgers missed could be a factor Sunday, but the extra bye week may also help his body in the long run. Rodgers' Pat McAfee Show appearances have guaranteed that Russell Wilson's return to the lineup is nothing more than the B story entering the game. But what will drive the narrative exiting the game? That's an open question. Pete Carroll figured out how to cover up some of his team's defensive shortcomings before the bye. The Seahawks rank a few spots ahead of the Packers in DVOA, and the underlying statistical profiles of these teams are quite similar. Nothing has come easily for the Packers on either side of the ball. When in doubt, go with the tandem that is 19-3 at Lambeau Field since starting to work together.

UPDATE: Aaron Rodgers was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday and will return for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.

• WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
• SPREAD: Raiders +2.5 | O/U: 51.5

The Chiefs are 4-16 against the spread in the last 20 games, an excellent numerical representation of being overrated. Their status as a heavy favorite against decent teams has finally evaporated, a few weeks after their offense entered a slump that is unlike anything I've seen in the Andy Reid era. Any Andy Reid era. There are so many reasons to believe Kansas City's offensive slide will end at some point, but guessing whether that's this week, this month or this season is impossible. The Raiders have the better pass rush and the quarterback playing at a higher level than a year ago, when Derek Carr helped the Raiders average 35.5 points against the Chiefs.

• WHERE: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
• WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN2
• SPREAD: 49ers +4 | O/U: 49

Shanahan's four-game winning streak over the Rams is one of the best bullet points on his increasingly scrutinized résumé. The San Francisco coach knows that time is running shorter on this season and he can't play Jimmy Garoppolo if the losing continues. Jimmy G's improved play over the last two weeks -- in addition to the return of George Kittle and the uptick in Brandon Aiyuk's performance -- should give the 49ers reason to believe this game is winnable. Matthew Stafford only needs a C+ game from his offensive line, however, to have enough time to find mismatches throughout San Francisco's depleted secondary. If Shanahan's recent mastery of Sean McVay is gone, too, what will be left for the Niners?

UPDATE: The Rams will be without starting receiver Robert Woods, who will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in practice on Friday.

• WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL Network, Amazon
• SPREAD: Dolphins +7.5 | O/U: 46.5

Conventional wisdom says not to play man coverage against Lamar Jackson, because he'll run all over you. That reduces the amount he's blitzed, but the Dolphins have the personnel to challenge that playbook. Only Tampa Bay blitzes more frequently than Miami, and Lamar is eating against zone coverages in clean pockets. His Pro Football Focus grade against the blitz, however, is 31st out of 36 qualifiers. The old game plan doesn't work against Lamar -- nothing truly will -- but Brian Flores may take the trade-off of Lamar running for 150 yards rather than passing for 350. Miami's station-to-station offense figures to struggle even more against Baltimore's blitzes, but I've seen enough from the Fins in recent weeks to believe they can cover this spread, forcing Jackson to keep making big plays in the fourth quarter.