Week 3 NFL picks: Will Bills stay undefeated? Bengals to earn first win?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Sunday night and their picks for Monday's games below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 19 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, SEPT. 23

Why Dan picked the Bills: Jacksonville has the talent to go into Buffalo and surprise the Bills, but the Jaguars are way too sloppy for me to call that shot. They've lost Trevor Lawrence's last seven starts, with the QB turning the ball over 10 times during the losing streak (tied for most in the NFL since Week 13 of last season). He's not getting great help from his supporting cast, either. The Jaguars pass catchers have a 15.2 percent drop rate this season (highest in the league, per PFF). Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage (80.2% of plays), which Lawrence has been better against compared with man coverage, but I'm not banking on that to be enough to tip the scales in favor of a team that can't seem to get out of its own way. Meanwhile, the Bills look like one of the best teams in the league so far. In fact, they have the best regular-season record in the league (8-1) since Joe Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator in Week 11 of last year. These two squads seem to be operating on tracks heading in opposite directions, and while the Jaguars are desperate, I don't see things changing on Monday night.

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: I know I'm beating a dead horse when I tell you that Joe Burrow and the Bengals have started 0-2 in four of his five NFL seasons, and he is 1-9 in Weeks 1 and 2 over his career. Luckily, it's Week 3! And Cincinnati looked like a much better team last week than in Week 1. So did Washington, logging its first win despite failing to score a touchdown (SEE: seven field goals). Jayden Daniels looks the part as the only first-round rookie QB with at least 500 total yards and zero giveaways through his first two career starts since 1970, according to NFL Research. That said, the Bengals' defense won't make it easy for the No. 2 overall pick, who still has plenty of room for improvement in the passing game. Lou Anarumo's unit has allowed fewer than 300 total yards in both games in 2024 and currently ranks second against the pass. On offense, you can bet Burrow and Co. will take no prisoners against a porous Commanders secondary, which has allowed six receiving TDs to wide receivers in two games. You want opportunities, Ja'Marr? You're about to get 'em. I like where Washington is headed as an organization, but it's not quite ready to go toe-to-toe with Burrow's Bengals in prime time.

ALREADY COMPLETED

Why Ali picked the Falcons: Can we please put the "Kirk Cousins stinks in prime time" narrative to bed? For those of you clinging to the tired storyline even after his surgical 70-yard game-winning touchdown drive on Monday night, here's a little nugget: Of the 24 QBs who have started at least five prime-time games since 2022, the 36-year-old is the only one with a passer rating over 100 (102.1) and one of just two with a positive CPOE (+3.2%). There's no doubt he'll face a stiff test Sunday night against a Chiefs team that's no stranger to the spotlight and is coming off a last-second win of its own. But Cousins has played well against Andy Reid-led teams in the past (7:0 TD-to-INT ratio), even if it hasn't translated into wins (0-3), and he did so without a supporting cast as talented as the one he has now (at least on paper). Look for Kyle Pitts to be a focal point for the Falcons' offense this weekend, as Kansas City has struggled to contain lesser tight ends in its first two games -- a fact that surely irritates world-class D-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. If the Falcons' veteran secondary remains disciplined in the pass game and the defense as a whole shores up its tackling -- particularly against the hard-charging Carson Steele -- Atlanta earns its second upset on national TV in as many weeks.

Why Tom picked the Browns: Cleveland beat Jacksonville in Week 2 with a combination of passable offense and dominant defense, and the Giants present a chance to repeat that formula Sunday. In Week 1, the Browns sacked Dak Prescott three times. In Week 2, they got to Trevor Lawrence four times. If they can make it five against Daniel Jones, it would be Jones' second game with five-plus sacks this season (following Week 1's loss to Minnesota) and the 16th of his career -- more than any other QB since he was drafted in 2019. The Browns continue to deal with injuries, including an ongoing foot issue for Myles Garrett, and it's hard to shake the feeling that the low-ish ceiling of this offense will keep things more interesting than they need to be. But Cleveland must jump on every opportunity the schedule provides, and I don't think Kevin Stefanski will let this one go.

Why Dan picked the Bears: What's the best remedy for a Bears offensive line that was embarrassed by the Texans? Well, it could be this matchup. If an O-line is getting obliterated in pass protection -- and, oh, did Houston do some obliterating last Sunday night -- you might as well try running the ball ... over and over again. Fortunately for Chicago (and probably Caleb Williams' well-being), the Colts rank dead last in the league in run defense and allow 5.1 yards per carry (fifth-most in the NFL). Indianapolis knew a run-heavy offense was going to be in the cards against the Jordan Love-less Packers in Week 2 and still couldn't do anything about it, with Green Bay racking up 261 yards on the ground. That was a week after the Texans ran roughshod over Indy for 213 yards. Plus, the Colts are going to be without their best defender, DL DeForest Buckner, who was placed on injured reserve this week. That's not going to help matters. The door is wide open for Bears OC Shane Waldron to put a much better plan together for Week 3. I fear for Caleb's rookie year if Waldron can't figure out how to make hay at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: This is REVENGE GAME central! Houston's Danielle Hunter, Cam Akers and Kris Boyd all played for the Vikings in the Kevin O'Connell era, while Minnesota's Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman and Shaq Griffin were all on the Texans roster at some point in 2023 under DeMeco Ryans. But all eyes will be on Stefon Diggs in his return to U.S. Bank Stadium, the place where he delivered one of the greatest moments in franchise history: The Minneapolis Miracle. Shutting him and the Texans' offensive playmakers down will be at the forefront of Brian Flores' mission this week, and it'll be no easy task. The Bears did about all they could defensively to win in Houston this past Sunday night, but C.J. Stroud, who hasn't thrown a pick in seven straight games (longest active streak in the NFL among starting QBs), still found a way. Flores' unit just stymied the 49ers, so I have no doubt it will be prepared for this test. I believe this game will come down to whether Sam Darnold and Co. protect the football against a physical defensive front -- which wrecked Caleb Williams (seven sacks) in Week 2 -- and an opportunistic secondary. This is going to be a nail-biter, but I'm taking Minny again, assuming Darnold will have Justin Jefferson and/or Jordan Addison at his disposal. He'll need at least one of them if Minnesota is to improve to 3-0.

UPDATE: Justin Jefferson is set to play Sunday, but Jordan Addison (ankle) is out.

Why Ali picked the Saints: This could definitely be a back-to-Earth game for the Saints, who have ripped through their first two opponents with remarkable ease. At first glance, facing a traveling Eagles team coming off yet another late-game collapse, quite possibly without A.J. Brown and on a short week should equate to another NOLA win. But Philly is 6-2 when playing on short rest since 2022, while the Saints are 1-5 versus such teams under Dennis Allen's watch, per NFL Research. That said, DA didn't have Klint Kubiak's play-calling in those six contests, which ultimately makes the difference on Sunday. I don't see New Orleans blowing out the Eagles -- Philly's offense is too potent. But I do see a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara against the Eagles' suspect run defense combined with timely downfield shots by Derek Carr propelling the Saints past a motivated Jalen Hurts-led squad.

UPDATE: A.J. Brown is out for Sunday's game, the Eagles announced Friday.

Why Gennaro picked the Steelers: Of the five remaining undefeateds on the AFC side of the ledger, these two are clearly the most surprising. The Chiefs have won the past two Super Bowls, the Bills have taken four straight division titles and the Texans have captured everyone's attention as a rising team with a wunderkind quarterback, so 2-0 isn't unexpected for those teams. For the Chargers and Steelers, though? They weren't exactly beacons of ballyhoo entering this season, but perhaps we all missed something with the way the league's trending. In an NFL that seems to be cycling away from the air raid and toward the ground game, good old-fashioned complementary football is back en vogue. Pounding the rock and playing stout defense? Jim Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin are right at home.

So, who prevails in the kind of throwback tussle that would have made the late, great John Madden go “BOOM”? Well, following last Sunday's road win at Carolina, Harbaugh kept the Bolts in the Eastern time zone for the sake of body clocks. Not to mention, some quality bonding, Baugh style -- a conception that invokes amusing visuals. But with all due respect to “board games and snacks,” this is Pittsburgh's home opener. I'll take the Steelers in a hard-hitting, low-scoring affair, especially with Chargers QB Justin Herbert "working through" an ankle injury.

Why Ali picked the Buccaneers: Tampa's defense has not given up a passing touchdown through its first two games; Bo Nix is one of just four starting QBs who hasn't thrown for a score this year. The Bucs, with a banged-up secondary, coerced Jared Goff into two interceptions during last Sunday's upset in Detroit; Bo Nix threw two picks in a home loss to Pittsburgh, giving him four total for the campaign (tied for most in the league). Todd Bowles is a master at generating pressure and keeping QBs in a constant state of discomfort; Bo Nix has the fewest total expected points added (-38.7), fourth-worst EPA per dropback (-1.21) and second-worst success percentage (12.5%) when pressured of the 33 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks this season, per Next Gen Stats.

See where I'm headed here?

Look, it's way too soon to write off the 24-year-old as a potential franchise quarterback. But it's tough to see things suddenly getting better for the young passer (even if he has a good idea of what's gone wrong), especially on the road and without starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey. The rookie's only saving grace might be if Vita Vea's MCL sprain prognosis worsens from "day-to-day" to "week-to-week." Maybe we can just nix this one altogether and let both teams move on to Week 4.

Why Gennaro picked the Titans: Will he or won't he?

That's the question in Green Bay, where Jordan Love (sprained MCL) returned to practice on Wednesday, introducing the possibility he could start Sunday. Matt LaFleur predictably played coy with the media, answering four straight questions about Love's practice involvement with the same smirking response: “He was limited.” Thanks, coach. Given the initial reporting on the injury, it'd be surprising to see Love back under center after missing just one game, especially considering LaFleur seemingly bought some time by scheming up a win with Malik Willis at QB. But even if Love were to return in Nashville, you have to imagine the Packers would ease their $220 million investment back into action by riding bell-cow back Josh Jacobs. And that's where Green Bay could run into a 671-pound wall, with gargantuan Titans rookie T'Vondre Sweat lining up next to defensive linchpin Jeffery Simmons. Going against a Green Bay offensive line that's operating at less than 100 percent, Tennessee's disruptive DT duo could wreck the game. But speaking of Titans game-wrecking …

Will he or won't he?

That's also the question with Tennessee QB Will Levis, though in a completely different context: Will he or won't he … commit another soul-crushing turnover? The second-year pro has provided a facepalm folly in each of the first two weeks, undermining a pair of inspired performances from Dennard Wilson's defense. Head coach Brian Callahan isn't just mad at his young quarterback, he's disappointed: “He's a grown-up, and he knows better." Levis has to learn his lesson, right? At least for one week?

Why Tom picked the Raiders: I don't know whether benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton was the right move in the long term, but in the extremely short term -- as in, three days from now -- I think it could improve Carolina's chances at success. At the very least, Dave Canales should have some idea of what he'll get out of the veteran, who threw for 361 yards and two scores in his last start (Week 3 of last season). Unfortunately for the Panthers, they're at risk of becoming the latest bit players in the Gardner Minshew Story. Maybe Carolina gets a little extra buzz from a steadier hand at QB; it can't match the positive vibes generated by the Raiders' comeback win last week in Baltimore. A Vegas defense that bottled up Lamar Jackson will provide a good litmus test for whether Dalton can make Canales' offense function better.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: Nothing about this is ideal for the Dolphins. They have to make a cross-country trip the week after losing their $212 million starting quarterback to a concussion in a frightening moment during a potentially season-defining blowout loss at home. Oh, and their opponent is a 2-0 team that saw its passing game awaken last Sunday against a defense that shut down Joe Burrow a week earlier. Mike McDaniel is going to need some magic as he turns the offense over to QB Skylar Thompson. Miami has gone 1-4 while averaging 19.2 points per game with a 5:7 TD-to-INT ratio in the five contests Tua Tagovailoa has missed since 2022 (including the playoffs). Three of those games were Thompson starts. Now, Seattle did have trouble against the run in Week 2, allowing Antonio Gibson to break off a 45-yarder. Maybe De’Von Achane and Co. can wreak enough havoc to put the Seahawks on their heels. I haven't seen enough from Thompson or the Dolphins' defense to predict an upset, though.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: So much of this outcome depends on which version of the Cardinals shows up Sunday afternoon -- a reality that caused me to go back and forth on this pick numerous times. I do know there should be no shortage of explosive plays in this matchup, as both the Lions and Cardinals rank in the top five in the NFL in deep passing (20-plus yards) metrics. Last week alone, Kyler Murray completed all five of his deep passes, connecting with Marvin Harrison Jr. on three on them (two for scores). Murray and the rookie are just heating up and very well could be the most electric duo on the field Sunday -- though Arizona's dynamic rushing tandem of Murray and James Conner could give it a run for its money. The reality is that, while Murray will dazzle and likely keep this one close, the Lions have more weaponry: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit also has a defense that features Aidan Hutchinson, the league leader with 5.5 sacks to go along with nine QB hits, and ranks fourth against the run, allowing just 76.5 rush yards per game through two weeks.

Why Tom picked the Cowboys: Last week, I breezily dismissed the Saints' chances of winning in Dallas -- much too breezily, it turned out. There's nothing airy about this week's matchup between two teams who (like me) are surely desperate to shake the stink of disastrous Week 2 losses. Which scuffling would-be Super Bowl contender will pull itself together first? As Tom Brady pointed out in the game broadcast last Sunday, New Orleans countered the potency of Mike Zimmer's defense by staying out of obvious passing downs. Can the Ravens follow a similar strategy? They actually got into too many third-and-longs against the Raiders, thanks in part to Derrick Henry's early struggles running the ball, and John Harbaugh is having to answer the wrong kinds of questions about his offensive line. Even if Henry has a smoother time against the worst-graded run defense in the league (per Pro Football Focus), Baltimore as a whole does not look ready to match the Saints' pace. Then again, Dallas' offense isn't exactly a powerhouse at the moment, either, and Baltimore's D figures to have something to say about the outcome. It feels like this one will be close, and maybe ugly, so I will (with more reluctance than last week) hitch my wagon to the home team.

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: Coming into the season, this looked like a must-see divisional bout between the NFC's most recent Super Bowl winner and the conference's reigning champ.

Then the injury bug hit both locker rooms like a plague of locusts.

The Rams' offensive line is a MASH unit, while star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp suffered leg injuries in back-to-back Sundays. Not to be outdone on the OUT front, the 49ers are missing RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel, two of the most unique and dynamic weapons in the entire league. So, with these two offenses lacking a number of key cogs …

Whatcha got, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan?!

The two celebrated coaches, who both took their respective posts in 2017, have faced off 15 times, with Shanahan coming out on top in 10. Given that, and the fact San Francisco's in much better shape in the trenches, I like the Niners to prevail in a disjointed struggle between two attacks lacking their usual punch.

Why Brooke picked the Jets: I'm not convinced the Jets are just going to flip a switch and be great -- at least not this early in this season. I do think they will build off last week's outing, in which they funneled the offense through running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. It's a winning approach for New York, as the team is 8-1 when Hall has 100-plus scrimmage yards (5-12 in games he plays and does not). The Patriots have a simple formula under Jerod Mayo, combining a dominant Rhamondre Stevenson-led ground attack with sound D to keep games close. I expect both defenses to force the opponent to win through the air. And though Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this season, do I really believe Jacoby Brissett and Hunter Henry (New England's best pass catcher right now) will go into MetLife and fuel a win? No. Will I regret this pick, knowing the Jets have lost six straight Week 3 games and nine of their last 10? Again, no.

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