Week 7 NFL picks: Broncos unanimously chosen to beat Saints on Thursday night; Chiefs or 49ers?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their picks for each Week 7 NFL game below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on BYE: Bears, Cowboys
2. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 17 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, OCT. 17

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: Sean Payton is returning to the Superdome on Thursday night. Drew Brees will be in the house, too. But in a cruel twist of irony, New Orleans' aerial attack has been grounded.

With Derek Carr sidelined by an oblique injury, quarterback Spencer Rattler made his NFL debut last Sunday against Tampa Bay. The fifth-round pick flashed playmaking ability in the first half, allowing the Saints to build a 27-24 lead, but it all came apart after the break. With Todd Bowles' defense ramping up the pressure, Rattler threw two bad picks and took four sacks, allowing the Buccaneers to score the game's final 27 points en route to a 51-27 win. Now the rookie draws a Denver defense that leads the NFL in blitz rate (44.9%) and ranks second in pressure rate (41.0%), per Next Gen Stats. Sure, the Broncos will be without one of the game's best cornerbacks (Pat Surtain II), but Rattler will be without his top two receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed). The Saints' catastrophic injury woes extend to the offensive line, too. Oh, and those who've dreamed of Payton falling victim to the Frankenstein monster he created appear out of luck, as Taysom Hill remains doubtful.

Long story short: In a highly anticipated homecoming, the injury bug rolled out the red carpet for Payton.

SUNDAY, OCT. 20

Why Tom picked the Jaguars: If this game were being held in any place but London, at any time other than nine days after Jacksonville arrived overseas, with a slightly more experienced opposing quarterback, I probably wouldn't have. Because the numbers suggest Drake Maye will find a fairly friendly matchup to follow his first career start against Houston: QBs taking on the Jaguars this season have logged a passer rating of 114.4 (third-highest in the NFL) and 14 passing TDs (the most) against one pick, while facing a pressure rate of 26.9 percent (tied for third-lowest). In Eastern Standard Time, I might give him a chance to squeak out a win against the 31st-ranked overall defense.

But not only is Maye about to play in his first international game -- he's also going to be dealing with a potential jet-lag imbalance. I was reminded by NFL.com fantasy writer Michael F. Florio in his Start/Sit column this week that the last time the Jags played a second straight game in the UK, they jumped out to an early lead over the Bills. I'm not saying this game will play out exactly the same way, but that wrinkle is just another obstacle for Maye to overcome -- making Trevor Lawrence's crew the (barely) safer choice here.

Why Ali picked the Falcons: After a sizzling start against subpar offenses, the shine has come off Mike Macdonald's defense. Over the past three weeks -- an 0-3 stretch for Seattle -- the 'Hawks are allowing the second-most points and yards per game (35.7 and 430.7) and the most yards per play (7.1) in the league. They've been abused on the ground and through the air, though their pass defense has been particularly suspect, allowing a league-worst 138.5 rating to opposing quarterbacks in that span. That'll happen when guys post a combined 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio and 74.1 completion percentage against you. Macdonald had extra time during the team's mini bye to problem solve Seattle's defensive regression. It's critical that he came up with something ahead of the team's cross-country early-afternoon meeting with Atlanta. While the Seahawks have been sliding, the Falcons have been soaring, with Kirk Cousins throwing for the second-most total yards of any passer (other than Geno Smith, coincidentally) during three straight Atlanta wins. The 36-year-old ranks top six in several advanced passing metrics over this stretch, too, including expected points per dropback, where he's tied with Brock Purdy -- the man who only last Thursday lit up Lumen Field with 255 yards and three TDs. The Falcons loves their one-score games, so I expect this one to be tight. But unless the Seahawks' banged-up pass rush and secondary get their acts together, I see both Atlanta's and Seattle's streaks continuing for another week.

Why Brooke picked the Bills: Buffalo is first in the AFC East, and Josh Allen is enjoying one of the best campaigns of his career. So good on Brandon Beane for not being content and trading for Amari Cooper before the deadline. There was uncertainty around the Bills' WR corps all offseason, and after ranking 31st in pass attempts and 25th in pass yards through six weeks, Buffalo did something about it. The trade feels like a win for the Bills and the veteran wideout. Limited in Cleveland by poor quarterback play, Cooper provides much-needed experience and big-play ability for Allen. What will Cooper's usage look like after being in Buffalo less than a week before suiting up? That is yet to be seen, but I'd like to think Joe Brady will get him involved in an attempt to keep Tennessee's top-ranked total and passing defense off balance. It will be a treat when those two units are on the field. Unfortunately, I feel the opposite about Tennessee's offense vs. Buffalo's defense. Will Levis is a frustrating watch, often doing just enough to keep it close before imploding late with an errant mistake. He leads all players with seven INTs and 10 giveaways this season. That's not going to cut it against Sean McDermott's opportunistic unit, which has forced a whopping 40 takeaways since the start of the 2023 season. Even if Levis takes a step forward and Tennessee actually does get Calvin Ridley more involved, this Titans offense (and team, as a whole) feels awfully overmatched.

Why Dan picked the Bengals: To give you an idea of how bad the Bengals' defense has been this season, check out the exclusive club Joe Burrow belongs to now. He's the only quarterback since at least 1950 to have a completion rate of 70-plus percent, a passer rating of 110-plus and a losing record over his first six starts of a season, per NFL Research. The good news for Cincinnati is the roles were reversed last week -- with the defense shutting down the Giants as Burrow and Co. struggled to get the job done -- and the Bengals still won by 10 points. If Lou Anarumo's defense can't keep the good vibes going against Cleveland, he will have a full-blown crisis on his hands. The Browns are the only team to score fewer than 20 points in each of the first six games of a season over the last decade. Kevin Stefanski is sticking with Deshaun Watson, the quarterback who has led the team to one touchdown on his last 21 drives. I'm afraid that's something not even the potential return of Nick Chubb can fix.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: This game certainly feels like it could go either way, based on how both teams are playing in mid-October. And while I could dissect every little part of the enticing matchup, I believe these three factors will determine the outcome:

1. Penalties. The Texans (32) and Packers (27) are two of four teams with at least 25 offensive penalties in 2024. Houston is also the most penalized team this season with 51 accepted flags.
2. Jordan Love against pressure. According to Next Gen Stats, the Texans have generated a league-high 43.1 percent pressure rate this season, with opposing quarterbacks generating a league-low -67.9 passing EPA against them. Houston is the only team that features multiple players with at least 25 pressures this season -- Danielle Hunter (32 pressures) and Will Anderson Jr. (28) -- while Love has completed 18 of his 45 pass attempts for 250 yards, two TDs and three INTs when facing pressure in 2024. Love's completion percentage over expected of -12.2% on such pass attempts is the lowest in the NFL.
3. Can C.J. Stroud avoid turnovers? The second-year passer, who will still be without star wideout Nico Collins, has four picks and five giveaways this season, while the Packers defense leads the NFL with 17 takeaways.

The squad that plays the cleanest game wins this battle of playoff contenders. To me, Houston is the better team. But will Green Bay make fewer mistakes? It's certainly possible. I just can't bring myself to trust Love against that Texans front.

Why Dan picked the Colts: The Colts are in a weird place. They seemed to have something pretty good going with Joe Flacco -- the 39-year-old quarterback who was sitting on his couch at this time last fall -- but now they're turning away from him because the immensely talented fourth overall pick of last year's draft is getting healthy. Anthony Richardson's expected return is making me question picking Indianapolis -- even in a matchup against the league's lowest-wattage offense -- because he threw six picks and completed less than half of his passes in the three starts he made prior to suffering an oblique injury. If Tyler Huntley, Miami's presumed starting QB for at least one more week, takes care of the ball and Richardson continues to do the opposite, this game could easily swing into the Dolphins' favor. They still have dynamos Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and might be getting the electric De’Von Achane back this week. I just can't ride with a Miami squad that has been soundly defeated by each team it has faced except for the Patriots since Tua Tagovailoa left with a concussion.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: The impact of Aidan Hutchinson's injury cannot be overstated. The NFL leader in sacks (7.5) and QB hits (17) single-handedly gave Detroit an edge rush. Now that the early front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year is likely out for the season, the lingering question of "Who can rush the passer besides Hutch?" abruptly becomes an existential issue for Aaron Glenn's unit -- and a critical factor when it comes to this week's opposing quarterback. Despite playing the best football of his career in Year 1 under Kevin O'Connell, Sam Darnold remains shaky under pressure. But the man shines in a clean pocket, boasting statistical superiority of the old-school (No. 2 passing rating in such an environment) and new-school (No. 3 EPA per dropback) variety. So, it stands to reason Darnold will put some points on the board against Detroit's Hutch-less D.

But will the Vikings be able to stop the league's top scoring offense?

Since arriving in Minnesota prior to last season, Brian Flores has completely rehabilitated the Vikings' defense with an all-or-nothing approach to blitzing. This controlled chaos has scrambled many a quarterback. Not Jared Goff, though. In the 2023 Lions' sweep of Minnesota, Goff posted a sparkling 110.7 passer rating by completing 73.6 percent of his throws for 577 yards and three touchdowns, with zero interceptions and just two sacks taken. Flores likes to "fight fire with fire," but Ben Johnson's offense has the firepower to make him pay.

In a marquee matchup between the top two teams from the league's best division, I'll trust the better offense to (narrowly) win the day.

Why Tom picked the Eagles: Philadelphia has been confounding from a picks perspective. Even with a potent offense and talented defense, the Eagles tend to play at the level of whomever is on the other sideline, based on their slim advantage in yards gained (+25 per game) and disadvantage in points scored (-1.2 per game). It makes sense that they are just above .500 (and my personal record in their games is just below that mark, at 2-3). So why not give the scrappy Giants, who boast similarly narrow margins (+5.3 yards and -4.2 points per game), a chance to steal one from their divisional rivals at home?

Simple: The Eagles have seduced me with their star power yet again. New York can play tough, but even if Malik Nabers returns to action, I just have faith that Philly's collection of studs will overwhelm Big Blue. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are both healthy, and Saquon Barkley will surely be motivated to rack up the counting stats in his return to MetLife Stadium, especially against the Giants' tough front.

Why Ali picked the Rams: While the Rams' 1-4 record appropriately reflects the absence of several key contributors early this season, it doesn't accurately capture the resilience this group has demonstrated thus far (let's pretend the Cardinals romp never happened). The Raiders, meanwhile, just traded away their best offensive player, have coughed up the ball near the goal line twice in as many weeks and have yet to lose a game by fewer than 12 points.

Now, I'm not trying to pretend like the Rams are world-beaters or anything -- even if Cooper Kupp is able to suit up on Sunday. They have plenty of flaws, none more glaring than their atrocious pass defense. Fueling their league-worst 9.0 yards allowed per attempt is their propensity for surrendering home-run balls. They've allowed the most TDs (five) and fifth-most total yards (324) on passes of 20-plus air yards this year, despite playing in one fewer game than the majority of the league. Raiders GM Tom Telesco really could've done Aidan O’Connell a solid by waiting another week before dealing Davante Adams. This is definitely not an "addition by subtraction" scenario. In Weeks 4 through 6, when the star receiver was sidelined with a hamstring injury, Vegas QBs ranked dead last in passer rating (28.7) and CPOE (-20.3%) on throws of 10-plus air yards.

The Raiders' inability to exploit L.A.'s biggest weakness -- as they continue to struggle with an offensive identity beyond Get the ball to Brock Bowers -- ultimately costs them on Sunday.

Why Brooke picked the Commanders: I really didn't see it coming, but Jayden Daniels is Him. The second overall pick is having a historic campaign for a rookie, ranking in the top five among qualified quarterbacks this season in completion percentage (75.3, first), pass yards per attempt (8.5, fourth), passer rating (107.1, fourth), offensive yards per game (287.7, fifth), rush yards per game (53.7, second) and giveaways (two, tied for first). He's the reason the Commanders have become one of the most exciting offenses in the league in 2024, with the 23-year-old quickly forming a great connection with Terry McLaurin -- and there's little hope Carolina will slow them down. The Panthers -- who, in their defense, have dealt with so many injuries to key players -- have allowed 33.8 points and nearly 400 yards per game and have just six sacks on the year. Carolina's offense hasn't been much better, really stalling in the last three weeks after Andy Dalton led the team to its only win. Chuba Hubbard and the run game are a bright spot (and hey, rookie Jonathon Brooks is closer to making his debut), but that won't be even close to enough. Coming off a tough loss to Baltimore in Week 6 and with tougher opponents on the horizon, this looks like a get-right game for the Commanders, whose 22nd-ranked defense must continue to improve if they want to keep their place atop the NFC East.

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Yes, I'm adorably forecasting a 25-22 final. Why torment 49er Faithful with that particular score in this particular matchup? Because my feeling before this Super Bowl rematch is exactly the same as my feeling prior to last season's actual Lombardi game: I fear picking against San Francisco's Chief tormentor. Patrick Mahomes was a slight underdog in February, too, but that obviously didn't stop him from improving to 4-0 against the 49ers. His numbers are down in 2024, eh? Asked about that on Wednesday, San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan respectfully suggested everyone should ignore the statistics before underscoring the important part: "Pat is Pat, and he's as good as it gets, and I don't see that changing at all." Neither do I.

Admittedly, though, I have changed my tune on San Francisco's signal-caller over the past couple seasons. When Brock Purdy burst on the NFL scene three years ago, I was somewhat dismissive of "Mr. Irrelevant." No longer. Purdy is a freakin' baller, running Shanahan's prolific system with aplomb and providing off-schedule artistry when the play breaks down. I will not be surprised if Purdy outduels Mahomes, but I need to see it before I predict it -- especially given the Niners' recent inability to close out games.

Why Dan picked the Steelers: New York looks like the better team on paper, especially after reuniting Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers this week, but it's hard for me to trust a squad that has such exquisite aim when it comes to shooting itself in the foot. The Jets lead the league in penalty yardage and are -1 in turnover differential. Oh, and they brought in kickers to try out this week amid Greg Zuerlein's struggles. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank in the middle of the pack in yards lost to penalties, while boasting the third-best turnover differential in the league (+7). And their kicker, Chris Boswell, has missed only one attempt all season -- from 62 yards out. I trust that Mike Tomlin wouldn't sabotage his team by setting the table for a midseason QB change, so Russell Wilson must be looking like a clear upgrade from Justin Fields in practice, and the QB1 will be going up against a New York defense that could be missing 60 percent of its starting secondary due to injuries. Give me Pittsburgh in a tight one.

MONDAY, OCT. 21

Why Ali picked the Ravens: The last time Derrick Henry faced off against Todd Bowles, in Week 10 of last season as a member of the Titans, down went the King: 11 carries, 24 yards, 0 TDs. That's tied for the sixth-lowest single-game output by the future Hall of Famer in 94 career starts. Tampa's defenders who took part in toppling the Henryarchy that day should savor those memories while they can -- because they won't mean much come Monday night. The bruising runner has a few new pals with him this time around, including the incomparable Lamar Jackson, who's not only leading the NFL's top-ranked offense but, once again, the MVP race. Were this game scheduled for Sunday afternoon, I could certainly see the Bucs -- who are actually tied for second in ppg this season (two spots ahead of Baltimore) -- snapping the Ravens' four-game win streak. Vita Vea is one of one, and Baker Mayfield has been playing lights out. But on a Monday night? With the lights on? I don't dare pick against the man who boasts the best winning percentage in prime time of any quarterback since the 1970 merger (17-5, .773).

Why Tom picked the Chargers: As much as I keep wanting Kyler Murray to go into virtuoso mode, I have learned over the past few weeks to temper my expectations for both the QB and the Cardinals' offense. Murray is currently averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, which he's never done in a season before. True, his interception rate (1.2 percent) is at a career low and his passing TD rate (4.7 percent) is near his career high (5.0), and his yards-per-rush mark this season (8.7) would be a personal best. But his performance is simply not translating into enough points for the Cardinals to make up for their 27th-ranked scoring defense.

Would-be marquee QB battles between Murray and Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff and Josh Allen all kind of fizzled. I don't have much hope that Murray vs. Justin Herbert will include more fireworks, thanks to the way the Cardinals and Chargers match up. Arizona has struggled defensively overall (27th in yards allowed) but particularly against the run (29th in rushing yards allowed). The Bolts, meanwhile, have been stout on the ground going in both directions (10th in rushing yards and sixth in rushing yards allowed). Whether or not Marvin Harrison Jr. returns from last week's concussion in time for this one, Los Angeles has a good chance to grind out another win in the desert.

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