The first frame of the campaign sits in the rear-view mirror.
You can whistle Dixie all day long about teams climbing back into the race -- "The Patriots always take a month to figure themselves out," goes the weather-worn parable -- but history tells us most clunky teams stay just that.
Coming out of Week 5, clubs with a 4-1 mark have made the postseason a whopping 76.4 percent of the time since 1990. Start 1-4 and your chances tumble to a bleak 6.6 percent, per the number bots at NFL Research.
That's just for a playoff spot. Out of the 427 teams exiting Week 5 with less than three wins, just one -- the 2001 Patriots (naturally) -- won the Super Bowl.
Why drum up all this negative energy? 'Cause there's a laundry list of struggling teams -- and coaching staffs -- that cannot afford another D- quiz result come Sunday.
For those franchises dipped in hot agua, here's who matters most in Week 5:
Mike Tomlin, angling to coach his way out of a dubious jam: It's jarring to see Pittsburgh (1-2-1) lodged in last place in the AFC North. The Steelers haven't finished bottom of the division barrel since 1988 -- the old AFC Central -- when Tomlin was in high school and Antonio Brown was five months old. This year's Steelers are frustrating. The offense still bears signs of ultra-power, even without Le'Veon Bell, but the defense has been utterly lashed by the pass dating back to last year's emotional loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier.
What bothers me most about Pittsburgh: A beeline of sloppy play that seems to carry from game to game. No team has been called for more penalties (42) and penalty yardage (401) than Pittsburgh. Its schedule looks like a beast, with a bushel of games left against the rugged AFC North and formidable NFC South. You can start to see the makings of a season heading south in a hurry unless Tomlin and crew can dig out against ...
Matt Ryan and his injury-slammed, spiraling Falcons: Not that a single human reading this would invest even a sand grain of interest, but Atlanta was my Super Bowl pick. That isn't happening, but I blame the emotionally frigid football gods for this indignity.
It's just Atlanta's luck, though, to find this happening during a season that feels all but lost due to a hyper-banged-up defense entirely gutted up the middle by the loss of linebacker Deion Jones, lineman Grady Jarrett and safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal. You can't genuinely complain unless your quarterback goes down in a crumpled mass of flesh on the turf, but Atlanta has seen a presumed team strength evaporate into dust.
Houston's ultra-troubling offensive line: Some of these sacks fall on Deshaun Watson, but when your front five allow the quarterback to absorb seven takedowns against the Colts, it's time for a long gaze into the mirror. Only Buffalo rookie Josh Allen (18) has been sacked more than Watson (17), who spent last season creatively escaping pressure and throwing on the run.
When Dallas comes to town Sunday night, NBC's broadcast will gush predictably over Texans pass rushers J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. (Rightfully so, after the duo wreaked havoc on Andrew Luck.) But the matchup I'd be equally highlighting? DeMarcus Lawrence -- the Dallas disruptor who leads the league with 5.5 sacks -- and a back-from-suspension David Irving blowing up Houston's tackles and guards en route to Watson's demise.
And now for What Should Terrify The Texans, Part 2: I needed to see the tape after colleague Chris Wesseling suggested Sunday's performance against the Lions was the finest game of Ezekiel Elliott's career. After watching the Cowboys runner double as an on-field fascination, I think Wess nailed it. Elliott remains so much more than an early-down back, essentially saving the team through the air with some of the finest catch-and-run action you'll see in today's NFL. Last Sunday was the first real excitement we've seen from this milquetoast Dallas offense, but if Elliott can stymie Watt and friends, the forgotten-about Cowboys would suddenly sit at 3-2 -- with a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs! -- in an up-for-grabs NFC East.
David Njoku, Cleveland's behemoth tight end who makes you say, "What if?": I flash back to a two-touchdown performance in the preseason where Njoku left Giants defenders in a holy daze. The massive, second-year tight end failed to top 36 yards in his first three games of 2018, but meshed well with Baker Mayfield in Sunday's colossal clash with the Raiders. Njoku also committed a killer drop that would have changed that contest had he hung on -- his third drop this season.
Mayfield is entirely promising, but has struggled over two weeks throwing to wideouts, with a score, two picks and a 56.6 passer rating when aiming at his receivers. That has Baltimore -- allowing an NFL-low 44.0 passer rating on lobs to wideouts -- licking its chops to see what Mayfield has to offer. Especially with corner Jimmy Smith on the way back from his four-week ban. It's the perfect week for Njoku to morph into a 6-foot-4, 246-pound security blanket.
Purple-clad and under the most pressure of all: The Steelers and Falcons are in a fix, but nothing beats Minnesota for a team where expectations (read: Super Bowl) and current record (read: 1-2-1) couldn't be farther apart. The schedule-makers did the Vikings no favors by sending them to Philadelphia one week after tasking the squad travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams.
I'm choosing to ignore this ugly factoid from NFL Research: In the last 10 instances where the two teams that met in the NFC Championship Game had a rematch the following season, the winner of the NFC Championship Game is 9-1.
I'm not ignoring a Vikings ground game that has plopped out 68, 14 and 54 yards over the past three weeks. Minnesota has been forced to ditch the run in back-to-back tilts where the opponent was putting up points, but the lack of creativity on offense is helping defenses zero in on yet another shaky offensive line. Kirk Cousins has been pressured 80 times this season, 23 more than any other quarterback in the league.
Meanwhile, after entering September with a defense that looked video-game powerful, the Vikings are allowing a robust 27.5 points per game. The schedule eases after Sunday with tilts against the Cardinals and Jets, but good luck spinning your hopeful narratives if Minnesota's spinning in oblivion at 1-3-1 come Sunday night.
Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @marcsesslernfl. Listen to Marc on the "Around The NFL Podcast" three times a week.
