Who is the first pick in fantasy football this year? That question is easy to answer -- at least I hope it is. No need to overthink Christian McCaffrey, people. But beyond the no-brainer at No. 1 overall, what do we do when things get unpredictable? What happens when somebody swipes the player you were counting on being there for your draft slot? Well, we have a plan!
The best way to prepare for your fantasy drafts is to break up your rankings into tiers. That way, you're ready if/when there is a run on quarterbacks. Or when somebody steals Dalton Kincaid from you. Which is something that just happened to me. And to answer the inevitable questions: Yes, some people draft this early; and yes, some leagues place a real premium on the tight end position. But I digress. Let's get back to the task at hand ...
I'm going through the four cornerstones of fantasy football -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end -- and providing tiered rankings for each position heading into the 2024 NFL season. It's an easy and efficient way to organize your draft thoughts. Savvy? Let's take a look at today's subject matter: QBs.
Tier 1
- A lot of this comes down to your scoring. If your league awards a whole six points for passing touchdowns, bonuses for 300-plus passing yards and things of that nature, Patrick Mahomes is the No. 1 QB to target. But if your league favors running quarterbacks, Josh Allen is the top dog. With question marks across Buffalo's overhauled receiving corps, the Bills quarterback is going to use his legs. That makes me favor him in the formats that reward dual-threat quarterbacking. The most basic rule of fantasy football: Study your league settings before you start drafting. It's not strategy, y'all -- just common sense.
Tier 2
- In this file one year ago, I caught flak for my placement of Jalen Hurts in the middle of this tier (No. 6 overall). At that time, the Eagles quarterback was fresh off a transcendent, MVP runner-up campaign. I just thought there was no way he was going to pile up 13 rushing touchdowns again. And I was right: He had 15. Now, going into the 2024 season, I again seriously question whether he'll be able to replicate last year's rushing production, partly because center Jason Kelce's retirement is a hit to the "Brotherly Shove," and partly because Philadelphia just gave running back Saquon Barkley a three-year, $37.75 million deal. That being said, Hurts does have a nice floor, even without an excess of rushing touchdowns.
- Anthony Richardson at No. 5 might shock some folks, considering he logged just four starts as a rookie last year. But those four starts were quite enticing. He showed the promise that you'd want from your young quarterback. Drafting AR's definitely a risky proposal -- after all, he only played 173 snaps last season due to multiple injuries, the last of which ended his season in Week 5. But the upside is impossible to ignore. And the good news -- especially in leagues where you only start one quarterback -- is that there are plenty of viable quarterbacks in the third and fourth tiers who could save your Richardson-led team from complete oblivion in the event of health issues.
- Healthy Joe Burrow might be one of the better values in fantasy, especially in pass-based leagues.
- I know a lot of you continue to doubt Brock Purdy, but he finished as the QB7 in standard scoring with 18.5 fantasy points per game last year. Yes, it will be preferable if Brandon Aiyuk is indeed on the roster when the season kicks off, but it's not a deal-breaker for me if he isn't.
Tier 3
- Jordan Love caught fire down the stretch last season against some bad defenses. But the Bears, Lions and Vikings -- Green Bay's NFC North adversaries -- all got better in the secondary.
- Trevor Lawrence could end up being a steal, with first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. poised to stretch the field on deep routes. I'm not mad if I miss out on an early quarterback run and end up with the naturally gifted signal-caller in Jacksonville.
- I have veteran quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff ahead of the two exciting rookie quarterbacks in this tier. If possible, I'd like to take one from each bucket, old and young, not unlike the way you'd stack a real football depth chart. For instance, I snagged Jayden Daniels in a recent draft as my QB1, which I really liked. But given that he's a thinly framed rookie quarterback who runs a lot and is unproven at the NFL level, I backed him up with Goff, just in case.
- Caleb Williams is looking like a great option this year, too, partially because he's a better runner than many people realize. He's not going to run like Justin Fields -- who can? -- but I see him providing a nice floor of about 30 rushing yards per game.
Tier 4
- This is officially the "I grabbed this guy at the end of my draft and he ended up starting for me at the end of the season" tier. Hell, you'll likely find most of these guys on the waiver wire in single-quarterback leagues.
- Kirk Cousins really intrigues me, especially if you scoop up one of the risker quarterbacks earlier in the draft. Before suffering his season-ending Achilles tear, Cousins averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game last year in standard scoring -- more than the aforementioned Purdy. He's surrounded by some explosive weaponry in Atlanta. And Zac Robinson is an intriguing offensive coordinator for Captain Kirk, coming from the same coaching tree as Minnesota's Kevin O'Connell.
- In a vacuum, I love the idea of Sam Darnold in Minnesota. He'd be one of my top sleeper quarterbacks ... if not for the presence of No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy. Now, KOC just said Darnold will take the majority of first-team reps in camp. But what happens if the Vikings fall out of postseason contention? I could see the rookie getting starts when the fantasy season's hitting the stretch run/playoffs.
- According to Next Gen Stats, Gardner Minshew leads the NFL with a 111.3 passer rating out of 12 personnel since 2019 (min. 150 pass attempts). That's the personnel grouping that includes one running back, two tight ends and two receivers. This is actionable intel because Las Vegas figures to run plenty of 12, maximizing the TE duo of Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers.
- No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers figures to be the most talented receiver Daniel Jones has ever played with, but I'm still not exactly feeling the $160 million man's fantasy upside.
Tier 5
- I mean, Bryce Young could be much better this season with an improved supporting cast that's highlighted by WR Diontae Johnson. The Panthers are just missing a DJ Moore-type receiver. I'm kidding. That was mean. But still.
- Justin Fields offers the most intrigue of all the backup quarterbacks on this list. You assume he's going to see the field at some point. At the very least, the Steelers will presumably design a package of plays for him, given his electric running ability. I'm just curious how long it'll take before fantasy enthusiasts demand additional position eligibility for Fields because he's lining up all over the place. I know you kids are too young to remember, but before Taysom Hill or Tim Tebow, there was Kordell "Slash" Stewart in Pittsburgh. And yes, I know those Steelers were led by Bill Cowher -- not Mike Tomlin -- but I'm still curious to see what's in store for Fields in 2024.