Who is the first pick in fantasy football this year? That question is easy to answer -- at least I hope it is. No need to overthink Christian McCaffrey, people. But beyond the no-brainer at No. 1 overall, what do we do when things get unpredictable? What happens when somebody swipes the player you were counting on being there for your draft slot? Well, we have a plan!
The best way to prepare for your fantasy drafts is to break up your rankings into tiers. That way, you're ready if/when there is a run on quarterbacks. Or when somebody steals Dalton Kincaid from you. Which is something that just happened to me. And to answer the inevitable questions: Yes, some people draft this early; and yes, some leagues place a real premium on the tight end position. But I digress. Let's get back to the task at hand ...
I'm going through the four cornerstones of fantasy football -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end -- and providing tiered rankings for each position heading into the 2024 NFL season. It's an easy and efficient way to organize your draft thoughts. Savvy? Let's take a look at today's subject matter: WRs.
Tier 1
- CeeDee Lamb was the top receiver in fantasy football last year. Assuming he and the Cowboys work out their differences regarding his contract, he’ll eventually report to an offense where he has no pass catchers ready to take significant targets away from him. Keep in mind Dak Prescott is playing for a new deal. I expect Lamb to have even better numbers this year.
- Tyreek Hill spent a good portion of last season on pace to reach 2,000 receiving yards. He scored 12 of his 13 touchdowns in the first 13 weeks of the season. Yes, an ankle injury slowed him in the fantasy playoffs, but you can’t draft scared.
- If you watched Receiver on Netflix, you probably came away even more impressed with Amon-Ra St. Brown. He played through injury and still managed to have nine games with at least 100 receiving yards.
- I might have to bump Ja’Marr Chase up in my rankings now that Joe Burrow showed up to camp looking like Cody Rhodes. Keeping both players healthy -- and happy -- would be huge for the Bengals.
- People looked at Justin Jefferson as the safe option in fantasy drafts last year. And well, it didn’t exactly work out, with Jefferson missing seven games due to injury. There’s some uncertainty at the quarterback position in Minnesota, but I’d still be willing to take him in the first round.
Tier 2
- Garrett Wilson had the second-highest end zone target share in 2023, which is great. But his three receiving touchdowns were tied for 82nd in the league, which is not so great. The production will improve with a healthy Aaron Rodgers on the field in 2024.
- The one thing about Puka Nacua is that you can’t have a great year like he did without people trying to figure out ways to fade you the next season. The 177th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft clearly overachieved in his rookie year. But the Rams offense can support more than one star receiver, which is why Nacua and Cooper Kupp are both in my top 20.
- A.J. Brown was the WR39 in the second half of last season, which might scare off some people in fantasy drafts this year. Look, as bad a second half as it was for the Eagles, I’m willing to take advantage of drafters’ anxiety and lock in on Brown.
Tier 3
- Davante Adams was clearly frustrated last season. There wasn’t a lack of targets. There was a lack of good targets. We’ll see who wins the Raiders’ quarterback battle, but Michael Pittman Jr. had 100-plus receptions and 1,000-plus yards last year with Gardner Minshew getting most of the starts for the Colts before he signed with Las Vegas this offseason. I feel great about Adams heading into 2024.
- I wanted to put DJ Moore in a higher tier based on how good he’s been and how good he’ll be in Shane Waldron’s offense. The arrival of Keenan Allen in Chicago is a huge reason why I didn’t push Moore higher on my list, and eventually rookie Rome Odunze will be getting up to speed and seeing more targets, as well. The Bears will run the ball a lot, too. Put those things together, and it limits Moore’s ceiling a bit.
- People love Drake London this season, and for good reason. Kirk Cousins will unlock his potential.
- Slotting the Texans receivers is becoming more challenging. Now, they are all great players. I have Nico Collins in Tier 3, but I’m not 100 percent confident in that spot for him. Will he build on a great 2023? He had some big games when Tank Dell was sidelined late last season. Dell is healthy again, and now you have Stefon Diggs in the mix, too.
Tier 4
- I moved Michael Pittman Jr. down a tier because I like Josh Downs a lot this season. Plus, Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson are healthy, which could mean more rushing yards for the Colts. Pittman will be good. I mean, I still have him in the top 20.
- Christian Kirk didn’t have a great fantasy season in 2023 as he missed five games due to injury. Use that to your advantage in drafts this year. The Jaguars offense should open things up a bit more with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. now on the roster, but I still expect a healthy Kirk to get 100-plus targets.
- George Pickens could end up being one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts. I firmly believe the Steelers will unlock his potential. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should play to Russell Wilson’s strengths by featuring plenty of play-action throws, and Wilson -- assuming he’s healthy come the regular season -- could thrive with a field-stretcher like Pickens.
Tier 5
- I have a fantasy team with DJ Moore and Nico Collins as my receivers. I can totally see a scenario where I end up wishing I had Keenan Allen and Tank Dell instead.
- Marquise Brown could be a great find in fantasy drafts if he’s able to stay healthy. He hasn’t played a full season since 2020.
- We know they will establish the run under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, but the one pass catcher I want from the Chargers this year is Ladd McConkey. Greg Roman’s offense is actually pretty favorable to slot receivers as long as the quarterback can get that player the ball, which Justin Herbert will be able to do.
Tier 6
- Rashid Shaheed is one of those industry darlings. A lot of fantasy analysts seem to love him. There are stats to back up the adoration. Shaheed averaged 14.5 air yards per target in 2023, which was fourth most in the league (min. 60 targets). Fifty-seven percent of his fantasy points came via vertical routes last year, including all five of his touchdowns. You might be better off with A.T. Perry in 2024, but I’m a Shaheed mark and I’m rostering him in a lot of my leagues.
Tier 7
- I’m down on Xavier Worthy right now. I have questions about his frame and hands heading into the season. And let’s be honest, nobody gets funneled targets in the Chiefs offense, outside of Travis Kelce. Patrick Mahomes has been great about spreading out the production to his wideouts, especially since Tyreek Hill was traded two years ago. Great for the Chiefs, who won back-to-back Super Bowls. Not so good for fantasy managers who roster Kansas City wide receivers.
Tier 8
- Ricky Pearsall becomes a lot more interesting in fantasy circles if Brandon Aiyuk is traded before the season starts. I don’t see that happening (go ahead and screenshot this to roast me later if it does happen), but it’s something to keep an eye on.
- Bucs rookie Jalen McMillan is getting some great reviews for his polished route running. I think it’s fair to say Washington had some legitimate receivers during its run to the national championship game last season.
Tier 9
- You’ve officially reached the “I’ve at least heard of these guys” tier. They are familiar names, but you might prefer the volatility of lesser-known players because by the time you would be drafting someone from Tier 9, you’re probably seeking a higher ceiling than what they can offer.