Step outside for a moment. Smell that in the air?
That's right: Football season is upon us.
The preseason is officially in the books, and teams are putting the finishing touches on their 53-man rosters after cutdown day, which means there's no better time than now to rank each NFL division.
We're a couple of years removed from the mountain of hype that followed the AFC West into the 2022 season, when three of the four teams ultimately disappointed. But that doesn't mean I don't have my favorites heading into the 2024 campaign. Hint: Follow the North Star.
8) NFC South
The Buccaneers won the division last season with a 9-8 record, thanks to the tiebreaker they held over the Saints. A year earlier, the Bucs won the NFC South with a sub-.500 record (8-9). That's the standard for a division that was once known for its parity and is now stuck in a lower-grade version of it. There is good news, though: The Falcons opened their wallets in the offseason, bringing in Kirk Cousins as an immediate under-center answer while hedging with a long-term play in the form of first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. They didn't stop there, acquiring edge rusher Matthew Judon and signing safety Justin Simmons. Atlanta's Raheem Morris, in Round 2 as a full-time head coach, seems to have a talented enough team to take the division from Tampa Bay. But will it be that simple? Can New Orleans, with a new system on offense, challenge the aforementioned two teams? And can Dave Canales carry the Panthers out of the cellar?
7) AFC West
When a team establishes itself as a dynasty, it's usually a steep climb out of the shadow for the rest of the franchises in the division. This has become the case for the AFC West, where the Chargers' 2023 implosion, the Raiders' ups and downs and the Broncos' whiff on the Russell Wilson trade have made the going rather easy for the Chiefs. Sure, Kansas City didn't just cruise to the playoffs last season, but I'd be foolish to choose anyone other than the Chiefs to win the division for the foreseeable future, which leads me to one question: Can anyone climb out of the muck of mediocrity to challenge K.C. -- or at least find a way to sneak into the playoffs via a wild-card berth? Sean Payton appears to have the Broncos on his preferred path, while Antonio Pierce is embarking on his first full season as a head coach in Las Vegas. Oh, and Jim Harbaugh is now coaching the Chargers. Perhaps this is the year we see the AFC West become more competitive.
6) NFC West
Over the past two years, the 49ers emphatically proved they owned this division. In 2022, they pushed past the pesky Rams, who were in the midst of a retooling year. In 2023, San Francisco built on that momentum by winning the division and the conference. There's no reason to believe the 49ers won't capture this division again, but it might not be so easy. The Rams bounced back in pleasantly surprising fashion last season and have bolstered their roster in 2024 with the hopes of taking the next step. Seattle regressed a bit from 2022 to 2023, prompting a change at coach; the Seahawks will hope the defensive-minded Mike Macdonald can improve that side of the ball well enough to make them into a contender. Don't overlook the Cardinals, who were forced to trudge through most of 2023 without Kyler Murray. He's back now, with a shiny new toy at receiver (first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr.). This division could be sneaky entertaining, even if the Niners ultimately end up with their third straight NFC West title.
5) AFC South
Heading into the 2023 season, this division looked like a contender for the worst in the league. Then, the Houston Texans happened. DeMeco Ryans, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, quarterback C.J. Stroud and the rest of the gang shocked the NFL world, riding a hot streak to a division title and a resounding playoff win, promptly jumping into the AFC title conversation. And if that was merely the beginning of something special, then 2024 is when the Texans could fully blossom. The offseason additions line up with that narrative: Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joined an offense that was already talented, and proven game-wrecker Danielle Hunter stepped in for free-agent departure Jonathan Greenard. They're the favorites, plain and simple, but the Jaguars will have something to say about the outcome after collapsing down the stretch in 2023 and opening the door for Houston's Cinderella run. Then there are the Colts, who found a way to compete for the South through the final week of the 2023 season despite losing their starting quarterback in Week 5. If Tennessee can improve under new coach Brian Callahan, this might be an engrossing division from top to bottom. But as of now, it's Houston's to lose.
4) NFC East
Speaking of collapses, we might never truly know exactly what was at the root of Philadelphia's sudden decline last season. The good news: The Eagles seem to be back on track (after Nick Sirianni hung on to his job as head coach) and are stocked with enough talent to immediately vault to the top of the division again. Now might be the perfect time for them to do so, especially after the Cowboys essentially hibernated through the offseason and waited until this week to sign CeeDee Lamb to an extension. From afar, the vibes around the Cowboys don't seem encouraging, with Jerry Jones setting Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott up for a prove-it season. Both figures can earn a future in Dallas if they deliver. But for a franchise like the Cowboys (you know, the club that still seems to be chasing the ghosts of its most recent Super Bowl-winning season in 1995), additional pressure isn't needed, and there's no telling whether this group can handle it. New York, meanwhile, is entering its own high-stakes campaign, and given the unconvincing track record of Daniel Jones, the outlook isn't very promising. Keep an eye on the unknown team in the division: Washington is rolling out a new quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and coach (Dan Quinn), who just might be exactly what this franchise needed. As of now, the NFC East looks like a two-horse race, but intrigue exists with the Commanders -- and if you're a fan of drama, the Giants should meet your needs.
3) AFC East
My, how times have changed. We spent two decades penciling the Patriots in as annual division winners, and all we can seemingly bank on now is that the Patriots won't win this division. Depending on who you ask, the AFC East either belongs to the Dolphins ... or the Jets ... or the Bills. Yes, it's that divided. On paper, the Jets have the tools and talent necessary to seize first place, but as we learned in 2023, they need health on their side. Miami has managed to make the playoffs in each of the last two seasons but finished behind Buffalo both times -- and hasn't won a division title since 2008. The Bills might present the most uncertainty of the three, especially after they said goodbye to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde this offseason (then lost Matt Milano to another injury). This is setting up as a legitimate three-team race with no clear favorite, and it could become one of the more fascinating battles as the season progresses. Look at that: I made it this far without even mentioning Aaron Rodgers. He could generate plenty of excitement with the Jets on his own.
2) NFC North
Detroit roared to the top of the NFC North last season, the rare example of a team riding an offseason hype train to legitimate results. That was fine and dandy, especially for a franchise that was so starved for postseason success that Lions fans were in tears upon beating the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend. Now, though, a new standard has been set. Following a heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship Game, there is only one goal: get to the Super Bowl. This team has never done it, but it's also never really been better positioned to break that ground than it is in 2024, with every key contributor -- including OC Ben Johnson -- returning. The path won't exactly be a cakewalk, though -- not after the Packers stunned the NFL with a red-hot second half that carried them to a blowout playoff win over the Cowboys in Arlington. Jordan Love is the real deal, and Green Bay is a serious contender. The Bears seem to have a lot of good energy right now, too, after investing in veteran talent (like Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift) and selecting a new franchise quarterback (Caleb Williams) with the first pick of the draft. They have to show they can turn the strong vibes into on-field success. The Vikings already had some of their positive energy sapped by a meniscus injury that ended QB J.J. McCarthy's rookie year after one preseason game. But don't forget about them entirely. If anything, watch them to see if Sam Darnold can resurrect his career. If Chicago delivers, this will be a gauntlet of a division.
1) AFC North
There's a reason NFL Films and HBO chose this division to document via Hard Knocks: In Season -- it's loaded. Last year, the AFC North became the first division since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 in which each team posted a winning record. If Joe Burrow hadn't been hurt, Cincinnati might have found a way to join Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Even though it is home to the Ravens, the top seed in the AFC last season, the North is the toughest division to project right now. There's a world in which each team -- yes, even the Steelers, if Russell Wilson can stabilize the quarterback position -- can emerge as champion. What if Deshaun Watson finally figures it out in Cleveland? What if the Ravens don't take a single step back despite an offseason exodus on the defensive coaching staff (Baltimore lost Macdonald to Seattle and Anthony Weaver to Miami, among others), building instead on what they accomplished a year ago? What if Burrow puts together the best season of his career, and the Bengals provide a no-doubt reminder of their own ability to contend? Simply put, this will be an 18-week war. Saddle up.
