Chargers, 49ers and Bengals among nine wild cards that could shape second half of 2024 NFL season

Remember all those skeptics who wondered what the Chargers were going to do once they dumped longtime stars like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler this past offseason? We’re finding out now. The Bolts found their most important star when they hired head coach Jim Harbaugh back in January. He’s won at every place he’s worked, and he has the Chargers sitting at 6-3 after Sunday’s easy win over the Titans. Harbaugh has never been a coach who’s relied solely on big names. He's about buy-in, and that’s what the Chargers have been doing since this season began. You knew Harbaugh was going to preach ball security. Guess what? Quarterback Justin Herbert hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2. You knew this team was going to run the ball and play defense. Well, the Chargers came into this weekend allowing the fewest points allowed. There are still plenty of tough tests coming for Los Angeles -- it’ll see the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs over the next month -- but it has proven a lot already. It was reasonable to expect Harbaugh to turn this team into a playoff contender by Year 2. With a 10-win season very much within reach right now, this bunch is way ahead of schedule.

We should’ve known something was going right in Arizona with the way this team fought for head coach Jonathan Gannon at the end of a four-win season in 2023. Like with Harbaugh’s Chargers, there isn’t much star power to be found in the Cardinals’ locker room. But this team does have its fair share of grit, and it’s a big factor why, at 6-4, it’s in the thick of the NFC West race. Technically, the Cardinals shouldn’t be part of this exercise because they’re leading their division by a half-game. They’re included because they feel like a real playoff team regardless of which team ends up wearing the crown in the West. Quarterback Kyler Murray has been playing some of the best football of his career. There’s more game management and fewer flashy highlights from him this season than we’ve been accustomed to seeing. This team also has a resilience to it that will come in handy in December and January. The Cardinals rallied to overcome fourth-quarter deficits at both San Francisco and Miami, and they also revealed a nasty side by thumping the Rams by 31 points in Week 2. Arizona still controls its destiny in the division race because the Cardinals will see four NFC West teams in their final seven games. But these guys are real. They aren’t fading anytime soon.

This isn’t where the 49ers expected to be when this season began, not after narrowly losing to the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl and returning most of the core from that squad. San Francisco has battled injuries and inconsistency, and it finally saw All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey play in a game this year. The good news for the 49ers is that all of their dreams are still well within their reach. They only trail Arizona by a half-game in the division. The return of McCaffrey puts their best offensive weapon back on the board, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw also should be back at some point this year after sustaining a torn Achilles in the Super Bowl. The 49ers have endured so many injuries to key players already this season -- including a season-ending knee injury to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk -- that it’s easy to forget this team has both talent and pedigree. The 49ers have played in two of the last five Super Bowls and appeared in four NFC title games during that stretch. Like the Chiefs, they’ve learned a few tricks about how to win games when it matters most. San Francisco might not take the division, given how competitive it is this year. But a lot of the key players on this team were around in 2021, when San Francisco was sitting at 6-6 and wound up reaching the NFC title game. The Niners have enough to rally once again.

Those people who've been thinking Denver is the beneficiary of a soft schedule need to re-watch this team’s 16-14 loss at Kansas City. The Broncos outplayed the Chiefs until Kansas City linebacker Leo Chenal blocked what would’ve been the game-winning field goal for Denver. The Broncos didn’t find themselves in that position because of good fortune. They did it by beating up on a team that is now riding a 15-game win streak. We can say without any hesitation now that the Denver defense is scary. That wasn’t Bryce Young or Spencer Rattler going against them on Sunday. That was Patrick Mahomes getting pressured relentlessly and taking four sacks. It’s also impressive to see how the Broncos responded after the Baltimore Ravens obliterated them, 41-10, a week earlier. There’s a lot of fight in this team. Give head coach Sean Payton ample credit for that. The Broncos will need that feisty nature at the end of the season, when they’ll see the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs in the final three weeks before the playoffs begin. They’re good enough to remain in contention until that point, but that will be the stretch that decides whether they qualify.

Count this writer among those who pronounced the Rams as dead men walking when they were 1-4. This team was so lost at one point that there was real talk about trading wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That’s all in the rearview today. Los Angeles has won three straight games, and it’s about to see the Dolphins (on Monday night) and Patriots next. The health situation is much improved now that Kupp and fellow wideout Puka Nacua have recovered from injuries. What’s also exciting about the Rams is their youth movement on defense. General manager Les Snead found a couple gems in last year’s draft (defensive tackle Kobie Turner and edge rusher Byron Young) and added two more this year (defensive tackle Braden Fiske and edge rusher Jared Verse). Those additions are a big reason why Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than 20 points to any opponent during this win streak. The Rams were 3-6 last season, and head coach Sean McVay led them out of that hole to the playoffs. It will be even more impressive if he repeats a similar feat with this bunch. 

EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Los Angeles Rams fell to the Miami Dolphins, 23-15, at home on Monday night. With the loss, the Rams fell to 4-5 and are currently third in the NFC West.

The Bengals remain a realistic wild-card team no matter how many ways they find to frustrate their fan base. Only a certified skeptic could’ve watched this team lose to Baltimore on Thursday -- in a 35-34 result that was decided by Cincinnati’s failed two-point conversion try in the final minute -- and think the Bengals don’t have enough talent to reach the postseason. Hell, quarterback Joe Burrow would be a leading MVP candidate if this team was on the right side of .500 (and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase would be in the running for Offensive Player of the Year). Offense clearly isn’t a problem for a team that currently sits at 4-6. The Bengals are averaging 27 points per game. The question is whether they can play decent enough defense in the final seven games to take some pressure off the offense. Cincinnati must play at a pretty high level to reach the postseason, but the path is definitely there. After facing the Chargers and Steelers over the next two games, the Bengals will see a slew of easier opponents in the Cowboys, Titans and Browns. As inconsistent as Cincinnati has been this season, it also helps that the AFC isn’t as deep as once thought. If the playoffs started today, the Broncos would be the seventh seed in the AFC. The Bengals are only one game behind them at this stage and the teams meet in Week 17. If Cincinnati can handle business, that matchup will play a critical role in deciding which of these squads keeps playing deeper into January.

The Colts find themselves in a precarious spot. They were hoping quarterback Joe Flacco could keep their playoff hopes alive when they benched Anthony Richardson, but that simply hasn’t happened. Indianapolis has dropped two straight games since making that switch, and Flacco had four turnovers -- including three interceptions, with a pick-six on his team’s first offensive play -- in a 30-20 loss to Buffalo. This team is now 1-3 in games he’s started this season, and the scary thing is he’s still a better option than Richardson at this stage. Head coach Shane Steichen even told reporters that after the Buffalo defeat. The Colts also have one of the most favorable schedules of any wild-card contender in the final month of the season. Indianapolis will see the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars, and also have a bye in Week 14. This team can rally late in the year if things break right. The big question, of course, is whether the Colts can make that happen.

The Seahawks are here because the NFC West is wide open. They have more than enough time to gain ground on their division rivals, as only 1.5 games currently separate Seattle from first place. The challenge for the Seahawks is to find a way to create some momentum. This is a team that has lost five of its last six games. That’s not because Seattle doesn’t have talent. Its offense has an assortment of weapons for quarterback Geno Smith to utilize, while the defense can be disruptive when it’s focused (ask the Atlanta Falcons). The key is for the Seahawks to improve in the areas that have usually defined good football teams: running the football and keeping opponents from running it effectively. The 'Hawks are bottom six in the league in both rush offense and rush defense. That needs to change. There is still hope because nobody is running away with the NFC West. But it’s also hard to see four teams from one division qualifying for the postseason.

Yes, the Buccaneers have lost four straight games. That doesn’t mean they won’t have something to say about how this second half shakes out in the NFC. This team has too much feistiness to it to completely count it out this early. The Bucs lost on a last-second field goal to San Francisco on Sunday. A touchdown run by Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt beat them in overtime last Monday night. The Bucs aren’t wilting even though they’ve taken some brutal injuries; a hamstring injury has sidelined star wide receiver Mike Evans over the last three games, and another star receiver, Chris Godwin, is out for the season. Evans is slated to return after the team’s Week 11 bye, but there should be a lot of optimism in Tampa because of the schedule. The Chargers are the only team it’ll face in the final weeks of the season that has a winning record. Aside from that Week 15 matchup, the Bucs will see the Giants, Panthers (twice), Raiders, Cowboys and Saints. That makes it feel like a different kind of streak could be starting in Tampa if this roster can heal up fast.

It’s not always pretty -- that much is clear. However, it’s hard to argue with Mike Tomlin’s decision to make Wilson his starting quarterback four weeks ago. The Steelers haven’t lost since that time, and they just earned a 28-27 win over the Washington Commanders, one of the hottest teams in football. Pittsburgh is averaging 30.3 points per game with Wilson under center -- compared to 20.6 with Justin Fields in the lineup -- and the passing game has been far more viable. That’s what the Steelers need most from Wilson.

McCaffrey makes this list for one reason alone: He finally played in a game this season. Nobody knew for certain if that would happen, as the reigning Offensive Player of the Year dealt with lingering Achilles problems, but he was out there for San Francisco’s win over Tampa Bay. McCaffrey didn’t dominate -- he had 39 yards on 13 carries and 68 receiving yards on six catches -- but a total of 19 touches is pretty good for a player who had missed his team’s previous eight games. The 49ers have dealt with a ton of injuries in a disappointing start. Having CMC back is huge.

The Lions cornerback intercepted two passes in a Sunday night win over Houston, and they were vital to that victory. One prevented a touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver while another came at the start of the second half, when the Lions were trailing 23-7 and looking for any boost to their confidence. Davis basically was delivering exactly what the Lions hoped he would provide when trading for him this offseason. Pass coverage was a major weakness for this team in 2023. Davis proved in front of a nationally televised audience that there shouldn’t be the same concerns about Detroit's secondary.

The Bears can’t be happy about the direction Williams is heading right now. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his last three games, and he’s only completed 50.5 percent of his attempts in those contests. There are clearly other issues affecting him -- the Bears have an assortment of injuries along their offensive line, which was a major factor in Williams being sacked nine times in Sunday’s loss to New England -- but this regression is real. Williams has accuracy issues, a penchant for holding the ball too long and two losses to the quarterbacks drafted behind him (Washington’s Jayden Daniels and New England’s Drake Maye). It shouldn’t be this bad.

Not everything that has gone wrong in Dallas is McCarthy’s fault, but he can’t feel good about his job security these days. He’s dealt with injuries to star players (most notably, quarterback Dak Prescott is likely out for the season). He’s plagued by a defense that either doesn’t have the right talent or schemes to stop anybody. And McCarthy also just lost to the Eagles by a score of 34-6. That’s the second time this season Dallas has lost by at least 28 points. For all the good things McCarthy has done with this franchise -- including three straight 12-win seasons -- the Cowboys look like a team that is lost.

This Falcons have one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history, which is why it’s so astounding that Koo has suddenly turned unreliable. He missed three out of four field goals (one was blocked) in a 20-17 loss to New Orleans, and he’s only made two of his last seven attempts overall. Koo has nailed 86.4 percent of his career field goal tries. He’s at 70.8 percent this season.

The Chiefs are off to a 9-0 start and riding a 15-game win streak dating back to last season. The Bills have won five straight games, with quarterback Josh Allen establishing himself as a strong candidate for league MVP. Kansas City has thrived behind a strong defense. Buffalo has scored at least 30 in its last four wins. It’s also worth noting that the victor in this matchup gains a huge tiebreaker advantage in the race for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. You’ll be kicking yourself if you miss this.

• DraftKings odds: +125
• Weeks in top five: 8
• Next game: at Steelers | Sunday, Nov. 17

• DraftKings odds: +350
• Weeks in top five: 10
• Next game: vs. Chiefs | Sunday, Nov. 17

• DraftKings odds: +1400
• Weeks in top five: 7
• Next game: at Eagles | Thursday, Nov. 14

• DraftKings odds: +1500
• Weeks in top five: 2
• Next game: at Seahawks | Sunday, Nov. 24

• DraftKings odds: +1300
• Weeks in top five: 4
• Next game: vs. Jaguars | Sunday, Nov. 17