Fantasy football: 10 players who'll out/underperform projections in Week 5 of 2024 NFL season

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.0

Matt: Somewhat quietly, Robinson has been the RB14 on the season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all four games and finishing no lower than RB25 in any week. With Austin Ekeler out last week (concussion), Robinson logged a season-high 24 touches and topped 20 fantasy points. He is the lead (and goal-line) back for what is suddenly one of the best offenses in football, which is why he has eight carries in goal-to-go situations, trailing only Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry and David Montgomery.

This Sunday Robinson draws a solid matchup against the Browns defense, which ranks 20th in defensive rushing efficiency, according to NFL Pro. So long as he's healthy and active, Robinson should eat in a game where the Commanders are favorites at home.

PROJECTED POINTS: 10.9

Michelle: In the two games that the Patriots kept close this season, Rhamondre Stevenson scored 21.6 and 17 fantasy points. Stevenson has played in 75 percent of the Patriots’ offensive snaps when the score is tied or they are holding. It won’t be often that we can project the Patriots will be able to keep up with an opposing offense, but the only team averaging fewer points per game than New England is its Week 5 opponent, Miami. 

If the game goes as planned, Stevenson should get a large workload in a good matchup for fantasy running backs. In each of the last three weeks, a running back has scored at least 18 fantasy points against the Dolphins.

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.7

Matt: So, Aiyuk is projected to score more points than he’s logged in any game this season, and I’m going higher? Yes. I know it’s been frustrating. In fact, Aiyuk is one of the biggest draft disappointments in fantasy so far this season, alongside a certain tight end or two. But I think the turnaround is coming. Aiyuk held out through the Niners’ offseason and has been slow out of the gate as a result, but he has a get-right matchup against the Cardinals in Week 5.

According to NFL Pro, Arizona ranks 26th in overall defensive passing efficiency, giving the 49ers (third in offensive passing efficiency) a five-star matchup advantage. This game projects as one of the highest-scoring on the week, and I believe Aiyuk will find he end zone. Keep him in your lineup.

PROJECTED POINTS: 14.0

Michelle: Since Week 10 of his 2023 rookie season, Reed has averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game. Only six wide receivers have averaged more (min. five games played) during that span: CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill. 

Despite playing with quarterback Malik Willis for two of the four games this season, Reed has the second-most scrimmage yards and third-most touchdowns among all wide receivers in 2024. He is the only WR with 400-plus scrimmage yards and three or more touchdowns. In the two games with Jordan Love, Reed scored 33.1 and 27.1 fantasy points, while putting up over 130 receiving yards and a touchdown in each game. He gets an amazing matchup against the Rams, who have already allowed three wide receivers to score 24-plus fantasy points against them this season. 

PROJECTED POINTS: 11.8

Michelle: The rookie has seen an uptick in targets, getting nine in each of the last two games. Last week against the Texans, Thomas caught a career-high six receptions and scored 21.9 fantasy points. He has caught two of Trevor Lawrence’s four passing touchdowns this season and is the co-leader on the team with three end zone targets. 

This Sunday could be another boon, going against a Colts defense that has already allowed five wide receivers to put up at least 15 fantasy points against them through their first four games, including George Pickens (16.3) and rookie Rome Odunze (23.4) over the last two weeks. No defense has allowed more deep receiving yards (20-plus air yards) than the Colts this season, while Thomas Jr. leads the Jaguars in deep targets, receptions and receiving yards in 2024.

PROJECTED POINTS: 6.8

Matt: I wouldn’t be surprised to see this projection climb over the weekend, especially if -- and when -- Christian Watson is ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Rams. Through four games, Kraft has played the vast majority of snaps and is clearly ahead of Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. With Jordan Love back last week, Kraft ran 44 routes (second on the team) and had six catches on nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown.

Kraft has assembled the trinity of tight end value -- talent, opportunity and offense -- and has as good a chance as nearly anyone at the position of hitting double-digit points. He should be started over all but six or seven names this week.

PROJECTED POINTS: 16.2

Matt: Are we really at this point with Patrick Mahomes? Projecting him to have a little more than 16 fantasy points? Unfortunately, we are. The best player in real football has missed this mark in three of four games this season, barely eclipsing it in the fourth. He’s averaging just 1.5 touchdowns per game, while also throwing at least one pick every week.

That combination is not conducive to high-end fantasy production -- which is why he’s the QB16 on the season, one point ahead of Aaron Rodgers and three ahead of Deshaun Watson. Against a Saints defense that ranks sixth in NFL Pro passing efficiency and is particularly good against the quick game, Mahomes is in for another performance in the low teens.

PROJECTED POINTS: 17.4

Michelle:  In his short career, Stroud has been a fantastic fantasy asset against AFC South divisional opponents (21.2 fantasy points per game) but has struggled outside the division (16.1 FPPG). In his two non-divisional games this season, against the Bears and Vikings, he scored just 14.3 and 9.8 points, respectively. I expect another disappointing fantasy performance from him this Sunday in a tough matchup against the Bills, who have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for 180-plus yards in a game this season.

The Bills' zone-heavy defense could make things hard on Stroud, who has been a much more effective passer against man coverage in 2024. The difference is actually quite stark, with his completion percentage against zone coverage this season 10 percentage points lower (76.2% to 66.1%) and his passer rating nearly 50 points lower (138.3 to 89.9) than when he's faced man, per Next Gen Stats.

PROJECTED POINTS: 11.3

Matt: At first glance, this might look like a decent spot. Sutton has topped this projected total in back-to-back weeks -- including against the Jets -- and draws a Raiders squad that’s been relatively soft against the position. Here’s the issue. In each of the last two games, the Broncos have been heavy underdogs in contests with higher expected scoring. They are favored against the Raiders at home this Sunday, in the game with the second-fewest expected points (behind Dolphins-Patriots).

That’s a recipe for the run game, not for Sutton to see double-digit targets. He almost certainly has to score a touchdown to top this projection, and the odds are heavily against that outcome with Bo Nix and this offense averaging 15 points per game. Count me out.

PROJECTED POINTS: 17.3

Michelle: Another negative against C.J. Stroud’s fantasy points in Week 5 is that his big-bodied playmaker could have a very difficult time against the Bills' stingy secondary. Collins has stockpiled fantasy points by destroying defenses down the field this season, but that will be hard to do in this matchup. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bills have allowed just 14 downfield receptions (20-plus air yards) on 44 opponent attempts, with their 31.8 opponent downfield completion percentage allowed ranking first in the NFL in 2024.

Buffalo's defense has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and yards per reception to the wide receiver position in 2024, while allowing just one receiver to get into the end zone. No wide receiver has hit 16 fantasy points against the Bills in a game this year.