While scrolling through the various shopping apps on my phone, hunting for everything from cars to ankle socks for kids, I asked myself this question: "Self, what is value? Well, the dictionary defines value as ..."
OK, I can't in good conscience continue with that bit. But since we're here, let's talk about values when it comes to fantasy football drafting. It's the thing we're all seeking. Even in the first round of drafts, fantasy managers are looking for players who can return equal or greater value to the spot in which they were selected. That said, we mostly know what to expect from first-round talents like Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. Where the concept of value really comes into play is in the middle to later rounds. Will that up-and-coming young player make the leap? Is there one last big push in an aging veteran? Or can an elite player somehow level up and be even, uh, elite-er?
Great value is most pronounced at the quarterback spot. In most leagues, you only start one. Even with depth at the position, being right -- and, more importantly, first -- could give you a leg up on the rest of your league-mates. Being able to build a strong roster without having to pay a high price for a week-winning starting quarterback is foundational to crafting a championship fantasy team.
To that end, I've put together my list of the 10 signal-callers who could give you an advantage in drafts in 2024. Happy drafting, folks!
NOTE: Projected draft position is based on a 12-team league format.
Projected draft position: 12th round or later
If you're living in the dynasty streets, it's hard to argue against Caleb Williams being the top rookie signal-caller. If you're looking for the first-year Pick to Click in redraft leagues, it's Daniels.
Why? Rushing upside. It's the reason fantasy folks were so high on Anthony Richardson last year. It's the reason people are still taking late-round dart throws at Justin Fields this year -- y'know, just in case. Daniels rushed for more than 2,700 yards over his final three college seasons, including more than 1,100 in his final year at LSU. He's a more polished passer than those other two quarterbacks were when entering the league. Plus, he'll have Terry McLaurin getting downfield in Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense. That's enough to believe he can far outperform his QB20 average draft position (ADP).
Projected draft position: 10th round
I get it. Everything the Chargers have done this offseason suggests they're going in a less-pass-friendly direction with their offensive philosophy. Hiring Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Saying goodbye to receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and tight end Gerald Everett. Saying hello to running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Drafting tackle Joe Alt and RB Kimani Vidal. The Bolts are taking it back to 2006.
But what if they're not -- or at least not as much as people might be thinking? This club still has a lot tied up financially in Herbert as its franchise quarterback. Roman has talked about how it is important "to tailor things for success." In other words, don't expect the Chargers to abandon the passing game. They did also spend a second-round pick on receiver Ladd McConkey. The upside? There might be a few designed runs in the offense for Herbert, which would boost his value. The fantasy draft hate has to stop. But if it doesn't, you could have a massive value on your hands.
Projected draft position: Round 9
Maybe we all have Kyler fatigue. Or maybe we just forgot how potent he can be as a fantasy quarterback. After all, 2020 is getting further in the rearview mirror. And if we're being honest, it's not a year many of us care to remember, for other reasons. But that was peak Kyler Murray. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards, ran for 800 more and finished as the fantasy QB3. In 2022, he was seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game before a knee injury ended his season in Week 14.
His raw numbers in eight 2023 starts were unremarkable, but the Cardinals' offense improved upon his return from the injury. Now more than 18 months removed from the ACL tear, there is optimism in the desert. The offseason headline move was Arizona's selection of receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick. If the Cardinals can get some improvement from the offensive line, a top-10 finish isn't unthinkable for Murray -- at a much nicer draft price.
Projected draft position: Round 7
Richardson appeared in this column last year. Even though we didn't get a long look at him before his season ended due to injury, I felt confident enough in what I saw to double down. This year's price isn't as favorable, but it still feels like Richardson is being drafted at his floor.
If his performance early in 2023 were stretched across a full season, Richardson would have been in the top four among quarterbacks in rushing yards. He also led the Colts in goal-line carries during the four games he played. Having to share the ground game with Jonathan Taylor will put a dent in Richardson's opportunities, but he will still be a focal point of the rushing attack. If he can just be competent as a passer, a top-five season is very much in play.
Projected draft position: Round 12
Cousins’ arrival in Atlanta was heralded by fantasy enthusiasts for its potential impact on the Falcons’ skill-position players. Some said Kyle Pitts and Drake London would finally benefit from good quarterback play. But drafters didn’t seem as excited about Cousins himself. I believe there’s a simple explanation for the lack of enthusiasm. Cousins isn’t exciting. You don’t target Kirk Cousins in drafts; you end up with Kirk Cousins. But sometimes the best destinations are the ones you end up in by accident.
Before tearing his Achilles in Week 8, Cousins was averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game -- same as the more coveted Jordan Love. The injury concerns are understandable for a quarterback who will enter the season at 36 years old. But that risk is baked into his standing as the 19th quarterback off the board. If Kirk Cousins goes full Kirk Cousins, you’ll be glad you ended up with him.
Projected draft position: Round 11
Speaking of aging quarterbacks coming off an Achilles injury ...
The excitement for Rodgers in the Big Apple lasted for all of four plays last season before his 2023 campaign came to an end, as the Jets went on to miss the playoffs for the 13th straight year. That doesn’t seem to have muted Gang Green fans' hopes for Rodgers in 2024. The response among the fantasy community, however, has been tempered.
There is the age concern. There is the injury concern, especially for a quarterback whose mobility was already diminished. The last time we saw Rodgers over a full season (2022), he posted a QB13 finish. He also didn’t have a weapon like Garrett Wilson, who had 95 catches and 1,042 yards despite poor quarterback play in 2023. With Rodgers and Wilson forming like Voltron (along with Breece Hall and, when healthy, Mike Williams), it wouldn’t be unthinkable for No. 8 to return to form as a fantasy QB1.
Projected draft position: Round 8
Tua was hotter than a Miami summer at the start of last season. He threw three or more touchdown passes in four of the Dolphins’ first eight games, was the QB5 and looked like one of fantasy football’s best bargains. The second half wasn’t so great. Tagovailoa tossed one or fewer scoring strikes in six of the final nine contests and was the QB19 in that stretch.
That late-season fade was real. Miami’s offense seemed to hit a wall. This year, the schedule over the final six weeks does the team no favors, but with such a talented supporting cast, drafting Tua as the QB12 feels like a floor play. If he can avoid a major slump late in the season, he should beat 2023’s QB9 finish and perform well above his ADP.
Projected draft position: Round 11
I didn’t have Williams as my top rookie QB value, but that doesn’t mean he should be ignored. The expectations for the top overall pick are sky-high. He lands in an offense that is setting him up to be successful as soon as possible.
Full disclosure: I'm not sold that Williams immediately breaks through the 4,000-yard ceiling that has proven elusive to all other Bears quarterbacks. But with a top-tier trio of receivers, I believe 3,500-3,700 yards with 20 or more touchdowns is possible. Williams isn't a true “running" quarterback, but he flashes enough mobility to offer the hidden yards fantasy managers love. The former USC star has a QB2 price with the talent and upside of a QB1.
Projected draft position: Round 7
Goff has gone from being viewed as a bridge quarterback to the Lions’ bona fide field general in two years. He's had consecutive seasons with more than 4,400 passing yards with a combined 59 touchdown passes. Since the start of 2022, only four quarterbacks have a higher EPA (expected points added) and only Patrick Mahomes has more passing yards. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider Detroit has been in the bottom half of the NFL in pass play percentage over those two seasons.
There's little reason to think this trend can't continue in 2024. Ben Johnson's offense remains intact with elite options at wide receiver and tight end. There are also a pair of upper-echelon running backs who can contribute in the passing game. The wild card is Jameson Williams. The talented wideout has had anything but a typical start to his career, but reports from Detroit suggest he could be headed for a breakout in 2024. If Williams can be a consistent deep threat, Goff's big-play potential gets a boost, and the QB can more than pay off his middle-round ADP.
Projected draft position: Round 4
The reigning MVP -- with a fourth-round ADP -- is undervalued? On its face, it’s a wild statement. Jackson is coming off a season in which he set a career high in passing yards while again leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards. Do I really see room for him to go up from there? Yes. Yes, I do. It’s Year 2 in Todd Monken’s offense, an attack that ranked fourth in points scored and sixth in total yards in 2023. With more familiarity in the scheme, tight end Mark Andrews believes things will look “really well polished.”
Speaking of Andrews, Jackson threw for more than 3,600 yards while missing his star tight end for seven games. A full complement of weapons -- along with anticipated development from Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely -- only raises the ceiling on Jackson’s passing potential. And don’t worry about Derrick Henry. Tractorcito will handle the production vacated by Gus Edwards. Since Jackson has never been utilized much as a rusher in goal-line situations, there’s no reason to fear his rushing touchdown numbers could take a big hit. Jackson would need to have a top-three finish to outperform his ADP. Doubt his ability to do so at your own risk.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who is going to have at least one screen on the Olympics among all his training camp viewing. Send him your tales of sports gluttony or fantasy football questions on X at @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.
