Fantasy football 2024: Top 10 WR values

Projected draft position: Round 4 (WR27)

We know Pickens can stretch the field with the best of them; over the past two seasons, he's racked up 747 yards on pass attempts of 20-plus air yards, seventh-most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. And that's despite his quarterbacks in Pittsburgh combining for a 56.7 passer rating (29th in the NFL) and 3.3 EPA on such throws in that span. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, put up a 104.9 rating and 62.2 EPA on deep passes in Denver in that time, handily outpacing Steelers quarterbacks in both yards (1,727 to 1,236) and TD passes (12 to seven) on such throws. In fact, Wilson's top target with the Broncos last year, Courtland Sutton, had the highest catchable target rate of any receiver with an average depth of target of 13 yards or higher.

Presuming Wilson is Pickens' QB this season, Pickens should see more efficient deep balls, and that should unlock the best version we have seen to date of the former second-round pick. I mean, last year, the best deep-ball thrower he worked with was Mason Rudoph! Even taking into account the hype Pickens will get between now and when the season begins, the upside he brings makes him a value. 

Projected draft position: Round 6 (WR42)

Johnson remains one of the best separators in the game, and because of that, he consistently earned a ton of volume in Pittsburgh. He should have the opportunity to do the exact same thing in Carolina. People will certainly worry about the Panthers' offense, but there is reason for optimism.

The team poured offseason resources into that side of the ball, making additions to the offensive line (such as free agent Robert Hunt) and backfield (such as second-round pick Jonathon Brooks). The most significant new name might be head coach Dave Canales. He was the QB coach in Seattle for Geno Smith's breakthrough in 2022, and he was the offensive coordinator in Tampa for Baker Mayfield's resurgence in 2023. Canales coached three top-16 fantasy WRs in those seasons, coaxing a massive year out of Mike Evans last season. Johnson should continue getting open at a high clip; if Canales can work magic with Bryce Young, the Panthers QB should be able to accurately hit Johnson, marking a step up from 2023, when Johnson had the third-lowest catchable target rate among receivers (64%). Volume alone should lead to Johnson out-performing his ADP, with top-20 upside. 

Projected draft position: Round 10 (WR55)

Shakir is being slept on, as he's currently being selected as the WR55 in drafts. Take advantage of that. Last season, Shakir hauled in 87 percent of the passes that went his way, the highest rate of any NFL receiver with 40-plus targets in 2023. He was second among all receivers in fantasy points per target (2.51) and third in YAC per reception (7.2), and he led the position in yards per target (13.6). Not only did he statistically stand out, but he earned more trust -- and volume -- late in the season. He made huge plays in each playoff game for the Bills, and now he is the only returning receiver on a team that just vacated 86 percent of its wide receiver targets from 2023. Even with the addition of second-round pick Keon Coleman, Shakir has a chance to be Josh Allen's top WR -- and he can be had outside of the top 50 receivers. 

Projected draft position: Round 4 (WR28)

Regardless of which team he's playing for or who's throwing him the ball, Cooper continues to get the job done. He has been a top-20 receiver in total fantasy points scored in five of the past six seasons, and he's ranked in the top 15 in fantasy points per game three times in that span while suiting up for the Raiders, Cowboys and Browns. He is one of just three receivers with 100 targets in each of the past six seasons. Plus, he is seemingly always good for a huge blow-up game or two every year. Last year, he ranked 11th in the NFL in receiving fantasy points over expectation, per NGS. He will once again be the focal point of the Browns' passing attack.

Despite the consistent success, Cooper continues to be underrated, based on his current standing as the 28th receiver drafted. (And don't worry; concerns over Deshaun Watson, who has yet to consistently play like a top-end QB in Cleveland, are likely already baked into that ADP.)

Projected draft position: Round 5 (WR32)

The long ball is about to be back in Kansas City, thanks in part to Brown's arrival. Over the last two years, Patrick Mahomes' air yards decreased while the team became much more reliant on YAC -- but that's almost certainly due to personnel. This offseason, the Chiefs showed that adding downfield speed was a clear priority, bringing aboard Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. Injuries to both Brown and QB Kyler Murray held the receiver back a bit the last two years in Arizona. Now, Brown has a chance to bounce back as the top receiver for the Chiefs, the best deep threat Mahomes has had since Tyreek Hill.

Rashee Rice is potentially facing a suspension under the NFL's personal conduct policy and the Chiefs have a history of bringing rookies like Worthy along slowly, so Brown could begin the year as the top receiver target in town. If he stays healthy, he has a WR1 ceiling in this offense. Even if the most realistic outcome is that he finishes as a WR2, Brown should pay off, given that he can currently be selected outside the top 30 receivers in your draft.

Projected draft position: Round 5 (WR35)

I named Ridley one of the better values at the receiver position heading into last season, and, well, the opportunity was there for him to produce at a high level. He led the NFL in end-zone targets, but he only barely cracked the top 20 among receivers (WR18) in total fantasy points scored. Fantasy managers might have been expecting more, but it's worth pointing out he had the seventh-lowest catchable target rate and the most targets in the league with a less than 50 percent completion probability.

Now, if it can be argued that QB play held him back last year, when he was working with Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, why would I be excited for him this year, when he'll be working with Titans QB Will Levis? Well, as a rookie in 2023, Levis led the NFL with an average depth of target of 11.1 yards, according to PFF. That means he is not afraid to air it out. Plus, expect them to throw more with new play-caller and head coach Brian Callahan, who already said Ridley could take on the role Ja'Marr Chase played in a Bengals offense Callahan helped orchestrate as coordinator in Cincinnati. The best part? Last year, you had to pay a WR1-tier price to get Ridley. This year, he is barely being drafted as a WR3 in the middle rounds of drafts. 

Projected draft position: Round 5 (WR36)

Godwin is coming off of a down season by his standards. He finished as the WR28 by total fantasy points after two straight seasons in the top 20, but I am guessing many did not realize he had just six fewer targets (130) than Mike Evans (136) last year. In each of the past three seasons, Godwin has cleared 80 catches and 1,000 receiving yards, with bad touchdown luck (he finished with two in 2023) holding him back in fantasy last season. But that high floor is not the only thing that makes Godwin one of the better values at the position. Last year, Godwin was asked to play out wide much more than he was in the past, recording 75 such targets, per Next Gen Stats -- nearly as many as he had in 2021 and '22 combined. And on those plays, Godwin posted just 535 receiving yards and zero TDs. Meanwhile, he saw just 48 slot targets, which was about a third as many as he had in 2021 and '22 (168), and he turned those into 448 yards, scoring both of his TDs. In other words, Godwin was just OK out wide but elite in the slot. New OC Liam Coen, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, has already stated he plans on using Godwin much more often in the slot, even suggesting Godwin could fill the role Cooper Kupp plays with the Rams, and the early camp returns are promising. We can expect a bounce-back year from Godwin -- and he can be drafted at a discount, as a borderline WR3. 

Projected draft position: Round 3 (WR21)

Thanks to a hamstring injury that cost Kupp the first four games, plus an ankle injury he had to play through, 2023 was more or less a lost year for the veteran, who finished as the WR40 in total fantasy points scored. Puka Nacua, meanwhile, put up a rookie receiving season for the ages. But did you know that in regular-season games where Kupp, Nacua and QB Matthew Stafford all played together (Weeks 5-8 and 11-17), Nacua only totaled seven more targets (95) than Kupp (88)? Nacua did a lot more damage, yardage-wise, but Kupp was right with him in those games in terms of opportunity, also nearly matching Nacua in catches (Nacua had 59; Kupp had 57) and even scoring more touchdowns (five to four).

Kupp was the WR11 in fantasy PPG from Week 13 on and saw a lot of consistent volume late in the season, including in the playoffs. Kupp might be 31 years old, but he still has head coach Sean McVay's play-calling acumen working in his favor, and he's still on a team that threw the most combined passes to WRs. Plus, he has great rapport with his QB -- and it's been a while since he was so affordable in fantasy.

Projected draft position: Round 4 (WR29)

Higgins is being drafted barely inside the top 30 wide receivers right now. I know there is a big clump of WR2s, and at that point, drafting becomes about personal preference, but do not forget about how good Higgins was before his down year in 2023. In the first month of last season, Joe Burrow was playing through injury, and Higgins' performance really took a hit. Then, when Burrow broke out, Higgins was injured. There was only one game where both Burrow and Higgins appeared to be fully healthy at the same time, and in that contest, Higgins went for 110 yards. In 2021 and '22, Higgins was the WR13 and WR20 in fantasy PPG. He has averaged 15.6 fantasy PPG in games where he plays at least 60 percent of the Bengals' offensive snaps since 2022. And now, with receiver Tyler Boyd and running back Joe Mixon having departed this offseason, we could see Burrow lean even more heavily on Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Take the discount you are getting and run. 

Projected draft position: Round 4 (WR30)

Kirk had a weird Week 1 last year, logging one catch for nine yards on three targets; it almost seemed like he was getting eased into things. And a core muscle injury in Week 13 wiped out the end of his year. But from Week 2 through Week 12, Kirk was outstanding, averaging 8.1 targets, 5.5 catches and 75.2 receiving yards per game, with three TDs -- translated to 17 games, that pace would equate to 138 targets, 94 catches and 1,278 yards, with five TDs. That would equate to about 14.8 fantasy PPG, which would have been more than Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith averaged. This year, you can get a multi-round discount on Kirk compared to those guys, and the Jaguars' passing attack will once again run through Kirk.