Fantasy sleepers, Week 11: Time to start Nick Chubb, Mike Williams?

Multiple things can be true at once. Jared Goff has played very good football for the Detroit Lions. Jared Goff has played underwhelming football for fantasy managers. The Lions starter enters Week 11 averaging a ho-hum 15.41 fantasy points per game. Sometimes it feels like Ben Johnson is trying to ratchet up the difficulty level for his offense.  

“How many points can we score if we only throw the ball 15 times?”  

“Can we win a game if Jared repeatedly throws it to the other team?” 

“How many points can we score if Jared throws left-handed?” 

OK, maybe I made that last one up. Either way, Detroit might get a bit of a reprieve this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville made life tough for Sam Darnold last week, not allowing a touchdown pass and grabbing three interceptions. But that feels like more of a Sam Darnold thing than a Jaguars defense thing. Eight quarterbacks -- including such fantasy luminaries like Deshaun Watson and Joe Flacco -- have had top 12 finishes this season. Don’t be surprised if Goff becomes the ninth. 

Remember when people were up in arms over the Steelers benching Justin Fields in favor of Wilson? Seems crazy now. But since he took over as the starter, Pittsburgh has gone 3-0, gaining more than 300 yards and scoring at least 26 points in every contest. Moreover, he’s fully unlocked George Pickens and could do the same for the newly acquired Mike Williams.  

The Steelers will need every bit of Wilson’s savvy in a huge AFC North showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. As lethal as Baltimore’s offense has been, its defense has been just as forgiving. Only the Buccaneers have been a better matchup for fantasy quarterbacks in 2024. Five times this season, the Ravens have allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Russ is cooking and the Ravens defense could be on the menu in Week 11.  

Chubb’s return to the field has been a nice story after last season’s gruesome knee injury. But it hasn’t translated to big fantasy production through three games. That shouldn’t be a major surprise. Besides the general lag it takes for players to return to full strength after injuries, the Browns just aren’t a very good offense. Cleveland ranks 31st in total offense and 28th in rushing offense. The good news is that Chubb has locked in a consistent role. 

If there’s a week for the veteran back to look more like his old self, it’s against the New Orleans Saints. Just four teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Saints this season, and only three have given up more rushing scores. With Miami’s offense being decidedly lackluster this season, game script shouldn’t be an issue. Look for Chubb to do the most with the 15 or so touches he’s getting. And if things go well, maybe he will get even more. Bonus Chubb for the win!

Just when we thought it was safe to stash Kimani Vidal, the Gus Bus comes rolling back into town. Not only did Edwards make his return last week, but he had one of his better games this season with 55 yards on 10 carries. Looks like the two-headed monster has been resurrected in the Chargers backfield. Good news for Edwards managers. Not so much for J.K. Dobbins managers. 

But what if I told you both players could eat this week? The Bengals are coming to town and bringing the NFL’s 17th-ranked run defense with them. Teams are running often – and effectively – versus Cincinnati this season. More than 46 percent of plays against the Bengals defense have been on the ground. That’s in the top half of the league. Teams are also averaging more than 4 yards per attempt against Cincy. Expect Edwards to see more than the 14 snaps he had last week. Also expect Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to get back to their run-heavy ways. The Gus Bus could ride you to victory in Week 11. 

It took nine snaps and one target for fantasy managers to remember why they were interested in Williams in the middle rounds: a vertical threat playing with a quarterback who could get him the ball. The answer was always Russell Wilson. Pairing Williams up with George Pickens gives the Steelers a potent vertical element. 

That’s bad news for a Baltimore defense that has been tattered and torn by opposing passing games all season. The Ravens have given up the third-most receiving yards and the most receiving touchdowns (seven) on throws of more than 20 air yards, per Next Gen Stats. Williams should see more than the nine snaps he had last week. Just how many more remains to be seen. Still, the prospect of a couple of connected deep shots makes Williams attractive as a deeper league flex option.  

Valdes-Scantling’s story is of a player who lands in cushy situations ... and does nothing with them. He’s played with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. His best positional finish in that span was WR44. Why should we believe Derek Carr is the player to unlock his potential? Carr doesn’t have any special magic. This is a case of the Saints having no one else to throw the ball to. New Orleans’ top receivers are all injured. Mason Tipton was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing in the way of targets. The offense can’t live on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill alone. 

That should make MVS an intriguing option by itself. A matchup against the Browns only adds to the appeal. Only five teams have allowed more receiving TDs to wideouts this year. This could be a lower-scoring game --- and it would be much better if Valdes-Scantling had more than three targets – but when the Saints take to the air, their journeyman receiver could be the downfield threat that has fantasy flex appeal. 

Trying to find tight end sleepers this week means either stretching the limits of the word “sleeper” or choosing a player whose prospects are so slim that it strains credulity to promote them here. Thankfully, Dissly threads that needle. The veteran has stepped into Gerald Everett’s vacated role and quietly had a career year. He’s second on the team in targets and scored eight or more PPR points in three of his last four games. 

That production coincides with Greg Roman’s offense rediscovering the forward pass. Over the past five weeks, Justin Herbert is averaging 30 passing attempts per game compared with 20 over the first four games. Now the Chargers take on a Bengals defense that has been the fourth-best matchup for tight ends this season. With Cincy’s ability to score on offense, Dissly could see some action in an up-tempo, high passing volume contest. In a week with two notable tight ends (Trey McBride and Cade Otton) on byes, Dissly is a good streaming option. 

Back before a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary short-circuited the 2024 Chicago Bears’ Era of Good Feeling, there was optimism that Shane Waldron’s offense was finding itself. It may or may not be a coincidence that it’s also when Kmet was his most productive. From Weeks 4 to 6, Kmet had a 16 percent target share. Chicago averaged nearly 32 points in those contests. Since Week 6, he’s been almost invisible with a 6 percent target share. 

Waldron is out. Thomas Brown is in. Brown is no stranger to getting the tight end involved in his offense, like he did last season in Carolina. The Panthers trio of Tommy Tremble, Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas combined for a 12.5 percent target share. Activating Kmet alone won’t be what saves this offense. But it wouldn’t hurt, either. Kmet is a risk-reward streamer in Week 11.

Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins have a top 12 defense. Not that you’d know it from scanning fantasy stats, where they sit 29th. The issue has been a lack of sacks and turnovers. Miami has the third-fewest sacks and the fifth-fewest takeaways. Maybe that started to turn around last week. The Dolphins got to Matthew Stafford four times and scored a season-high nine fantasy points. 

This is a great time to face the Raiders, who have allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. Twenty-three of them belong to newly re-minted starter Gardner Minshew II. For good measure, Minshew has turned the ball over 12 times in eight games. It’s a chance for an improving defense to get fat statistically against an aspirational offense. 

I thought that the Cowboys offense would still be functional with Cooper Rush at quarterback. I thought wrong. Things got so bad for Dallas on Sunday that Rush was benched for Trey Lance. They managed a whopping 146 net yards and turned the ball over five times. They were already an abysmal running team. Now it looks like they can’t throw the ball either. Bad times in the Metroplex.  

Next up, the ‘Boys host a Texans team with designs on a division title. Houston has been a middle-of-the-road defense statistically, but the unit has been very good at forcing turnovers (18) and getting sacks (29). Now they’ll face an unproven quarterback who can be prone to giveaways. Will it be Rush, or will we see Lance? Will it matter? Not likely.