Fantasy sleepers, Week 10: Pair of Giants, 49ers with favorable matchups

Believe it or not, Purdy is a top 10 fantasy quarterback heading into Week 10. It feels improbable because the Niners have dealt with many key injuries while sputtering offensively. It helps that Purdy has already set a career high with three rushing touchdowns through the first half of the season. 

That part of his game might not be needed so much moving forward. The 49ers are hoping to have a healthy Christian McCaffrey back this week, which will lessen the need for Purdy’s rushing prowess. But Kyle Shanahan will still need his QB’s arm, especially against a Buccaneers secondary that has been suspect all season long. Only the Jaguars are allowing more fantasy points per game to QBs than Tampa. Even if CMC gets a big workload in his return, Purdy should be asked to do plenty as the Niners try to keep pace in a tight NFC West race. 

Darnold hit a midseason lull after a blistering start to the season. He’s recently started to pick up the pace, thanks to some good matchups and high-scoring contests. Last week against the Colts, Darnold posted 19 fantasy points in a game where he turned the ball over three times. Without those giveaways, he would have had a top-three finish.  

The good news is that Darnold gets another choice matchup this week. The Jaguars have been consistently awful against quarterbacks this season, allowing a league-high 19 touchdown passes while nabbing just two interceptions. They’ve also given up a top 12 signal-caller in every game but one -- and that was largely because Jordan Love got hurt and Malik Willis took over for him mid-game. If starting your QBs against the Jags isn’t an official rule, it at least is good common sense.  

First off, congratulations to Daniel Jones! He threw a touchdown pass. In his home stadium, no less. For most NFL starting quarterbacks, that’s not a big deal. Most NFL starting quarterbacks aren’t Daniel Jones.  

In the end, Mr. Dimes had his best fantasy day of the season last week despite posting his second-lowest passing yardage total of the year. It’s amazing what some rushing production can do.  

This week, Jones and the G-Men take a trip to Germany to face a Panthers team riding high after its second win of the season. That doesn’t mean this isn’t still a good matchup. Carolina’s numbers against fantasy quarterbacks have improved slightly as the season has progressed. That means it's gone from awful to merely ungood. The Panthers rank 27th against the pass with 18 touchdowns surrendered and just three interceptions. Four quarterbacks posted top 12 weekly finishes against this defense in the past six weeks. Jones won’t have a ton of appeal in single-QB leagues but is almost a must-start in two-QB formats. 

Tracy is treading the line of sleeper at this point. He’s heavily rostered and has nearly completed his takeover of the Giants backfield. But even if you have him, you might not yet be convinced to start him after an underwhelming Week 9. While last week’s fantasy output wasn’t great, he out-snapped Devin Singletary 41-18. It was the third straight week Tracy dominated the on-field time.  

This week, Tracy can put all of that on-field time to productive use against the Panthers. Carolina continues to be ungood against opposing -- well, offenses -- but especially against running backs. It ranks dead last against the run this season and has conceded a league-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Tracy’s role in New York’s passing game is minimal and a tough asset to count on. Fortunately for fantasy managers, it’s a trait that might not be needed this week.  

Very quietly, Swift is having a nice fantasy season. He’s taken full control of the Bears backfield and used it to become a top 20 running back. Even in an offense that is having its weekly ups and downs, Swift has become a picture of consistency. He’s had double-digit fantasy points in five straight games with 80-plus scrimmage yards and four scores. With Caleb Williams scuffling lately, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron might look to establish the run. 

The Patriots are the perfect opponent for that mentality. New England’s run defense ranks in the NFL's bottom six. The Pats have allowed 110 or more rushing yards in seven games this season. They’ve also surrendered at least 80 rushing yards to five backs in 2024. A New England offense that struggles to score shouldn’t force the Bears into a pass-heavy game script. Swift could see a lot of productive touches in Week 10. 

With Christian Kirk on injured reserve with a broken collarbone, Washington has been asked to take up part of his role. It seems Washington has taken to it rather well. In the past two games, he’s second only to Evan Engram in targets while picking up a team-high 87 receiving yards. Washington has done most of his work in the intermediate part of the field with 10 of his 15 targets coming between 10 and 19 air yards. 

For as much as the Vikings defense has been praised, it’s been a boon for fantasy receivers. There is no better matchup for the position than the Minnesota defense. It’s especially advantageous for wideouts who tend to work at medium depths. Only the Ravens have allowed more yards on such throws. Washington's ceiling will undoubtedly take a hit with Mac Jones at quarterback, but with a pass-heavy game script likely, he could see enough work to warrant a flex spot.

Jennings had a pair of monster games earlier in the season before crashing back to Earth in Weeks 5 and 6 before missing the following two weeks with an injury. But this week, he’s part of an offensive cavalry riding to the rescue of the Niners offense. Just in time, too, with Brandon Aiyuk gone for the year and leaving a void in the slot. 

That could be good enough this week against the Bucs. Jennings has run more than half of his routes from the slot. Meanwhile, no team has allowed more yards on slot targets than Tampa Bay. Despite being shorthanded on offense, Bucs OC Liam Coen still generates points with his offense. That could force San Francisco to keep throwing the ball. Jennings has proven to be a playmaker before. This week’s matchup could make him a nice fantasy flex play as well.  

It’s been a struggle for Dolphins pass catchers in fantasy. Losing Tua Tagovailoa for four games felt like losing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as well. While Tua’s return has helped Hill, Waddle is still missing in action. Through it all, Smith seemed immune to the quarterback shuffling.  

Smith’s target share held steady over the past month. He’s gone four straight games with at least six targets. He’s posted at least four receptions in all those games. This week, Smith and the Dolphins visit a young Rams defense that is improving but still struggles against athletic tight ends. Brock Bowers, Tucker Kraft and Trey McBride all had top five weekly outings against the Rams defense. Smith has a strong shot to end up in the TE1 range this week. 

Don’t let all the talk about Sam LaPorta’s disappointing season distract you from the fact that Kincaid has also severely underperformed. He clocks in as the TE10, but it belies a season that has offered a heapin’ helpin’ of meh. Kincaid has just two touchdowns, spaced five weeks apart. He doesn’t have more than 52 yards in a game. And while he leads the team in targets, he’s a distant third in overall receiving yards.  

Here come the Colts to the rescue. Indy is the third-best matchup for fantasy tight ends this year, allowing the most receptions to the position. The five touchdowns surrendered is second only to the Carolina Panthers. The upside to Kincaid’s season has been his steady weekly target share -- averaging around seven per game since Week 4. Versus such a forgiving defense, Kincaid should be able to post one of his better stat lines of the season. 

I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention, but the Chargers defense is good. Very good. It ranks first in scoring and fifth in total defense. The Bolts are in the top 10 in takeaways and sacks. Only one opponent has scored 20 points against them. They’ve held the opposition to 10 points or fewer four times this season.  

That’s bad news for an offense that ranks 30th in scoring and 31st in total yards. It’s not just that the Titans can’t move the ball, they can’t hold onto it, either. Only the Raiders have given it away more this season. We could see Will Levis’ return this week, which might be even better news for the Chargers. Levis was sacked 15 times in his five starts with 10 total turnovers. Whoever is under center for Brian Callahan’s offense this week, expect the Bolts to strike.