NFL Pro: Top four fantasy mismatches of 2025 Championship Sunday

Jayden Daniels is at the doorstep of Super Bowl LIX -- and history. No rookie quarterback starter has ever advanced to a Super Bowl, as each of the previous five rookie QBs to start a conference championship game failed to advance. So how does Daniels become the first?

Well, the Commanders QB simply needs to do what he has all season. Daniels excels as a dual threat and a blitz beater. During the regular season, Daniels recorded a passer rating of 114.7 against the blitz, the highest mark by a rookie since 2016, per Next Gen Stats. Blitzed on 54.1% of his dropbacks in the Divisional Round against the Lions, Daniels registered 191 passing yards in such situations, the second-most by a rookie QB against the blitz in a game (regular or postseason) since 2016. 

Philadelphia is all too familiar with Detroit’s struggles. In a Week 16 meeting, the Eagles dialed up the heat on Daniels by sending their second-highest blitz rate this season (35.6%). While Philadelphia has gotten pressure on 52.4% of its blitzes against Daniels, the NFC East champion has sacked him just once. What’s more is Daniels has taken advantage of less coverage defenders and tossed for 193 yards along with three touchdowns against the Eagles’ blitz.

Daniels stays cool under pressure. In Week 16, the rookie phenom generated a +11.2 EPA under pressure, the fourth-highest by a rookie in the Next Gen Stats era, while converting more first downs (4) with his legs than the rest of his team combined (3). Daniels’ league-high scramble rate of 13% translated to 600 rushing yards on scrambles, the second-most by any QB since 2016, and a league-leading 22 first downs on third and fourth-down scrambles. Similarly, he’s made defenses pay on the ground with a league-high five rushing TDs via designed runs.

Washington clearly trusts Daniels against Vic Fangio’s defense as it deployed empty formation (leaving Daniels alone in the backfield) on a season-high 22.2% of offensive snaps in Week 16. Daniels responded with 339 scrimmage yards, five touchdowns and the win. The legend of Jayden Daniels could potentially grow in the City of Brotherly Love. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Daniels beating the Eagles’ blitz in Week 16.)

Daily Fantasy Sports Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)

DraftKings Price: $7,000

The Eagles have been tough to crack this season, allowing just three QBs to hit 20 fantasy points in a game. But those three QBs did combine for 170 rushing yards and one rushing TD, which means the road to success might come on the ground. And the best of those performances? That would be Jayden Daniels, a month ago, when he dropped 34.4 points on Philly with 81 rushing yards and five TD passes. Daniels has been playing MVP-level ball since the start of December, averaging 27.5 fantasy points and 66 rushing yards across six full games, with 17 passing TDs and just four interceptions. He’s a stud.

Not much remains to be said about Saquon Barkley’s impact on the Eagles’ offense this season. Philadelphia’s crown jewel has produced five explosive runs (run of 12-plus yards) across the Eagles’ two playoff games and just ran wild for 205 yards and two TDs in the Divisional Round. Washington, meanwhile, has allowed the NFL’s second-highest explosive run rate (13.2%) and the most yards before contact per carry (1.9) to running backs this season, per Next Gen Stats. In two regular season meetings, the Commanders surrendered 197 yards before contact to Barkley and six explosive runs.

If those trends continue, it won’t end well for Washington. Barkley’s 829 rushing yards before contact this season is the most by any player in a season since at least 2017. To get a sense of how effective Barkley has been behind the Eagles’ offensive line, consider that Barkley’s previous career high in this metric was 489 as a Giant in 2022. Barkley has done most of his damage rushing outside the tackles, but the Commanders could look to slow him down by loading the box. When doing so and utilizing more defenders than blockers, Washington has held opposing rushers to just 45 yards through two postseason games.

But if Barkley breaks loose, there’s no slowing him down. His 13 runs where he reached a top speed of 20+ MPH this season more than double any other RB and are five more than any player has had since 2016. If Philadelphia wins the rubber match against Washington, Barkley will likely be the reason why. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Barkley’s carries against the Commanders in their last matchup.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $8,600

It’s not often we have a two-game sample size for a player-opponent matchup heading into a third game. And it’s even less often that said player totaled more than 60 fantasy points in the first two games. But here we are. Saquon Barkley has posted an absurd 348 total yards and four TDs in two meetings with Washington and there’s little reason to expect a change heading into the rubber match. He’s the highest-priced player on the entire slate for good reason. If you can save elsewhere, Barkley is a rock-solid centerpiece.

Josh Allen is preparing for the biggest game of his career on Sunday: a date with Patrick Mahomes’ back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. So how should Allen, who is 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs, attack Kansas City on Sunday? It could boil down to Allen relying on the quick passing game and his legs.

In the Divisional Round, Allen averaged the third-quickest time to throw of his career (2.43 seconds), per Next Gen Stats. Usually known for making unfathomable throws after extending plays, Allen instead completed 9 of his 10 quick passes. He also scored two TDs via designed runs and QB sneaks, pointing toward a career-wide trend of Allen seeing an uptick in designed runs during the playoffs (3.8 per game in the postseason compared to 2.1 in the regular season). That strategy has been effective as Allen’s 69.6% success rate on designed runs in the playoffs is the NFL’s highest among QBs since 2019. Similarly, Allen has rushed on scrambles on 10.4% of his career dropbacks against the Chiefs versus 7.0% against all other opponents since 2020 (including playoffs). And how did Allen put away Kansas City late in a Week 11 win? A 26-yard TD run on fourth down.

Allen’s running ability has given Steve Spagnulo’s defense fits. Sacked just 1.3 times per game in eight matchups against Spagnuolo’s unit, Allen has been the least-sacked quarterback of any of the 24 QBs who have started four-plus games against Spagnuolo. The Chiefs have opted for split-safety coverage on 52.3% of opposing dropbacks this season and have ranked in the top five of split-safety usage in all but one season with Spagnuolo helming the defense. Kansas City used such coverage on 38.9% of its blitzes this season, more than twice the NFL average (16.6%). Yet, Allen should be unfazed. Allen was the only qualified QB who did not throw an interception against split-safety coverage this season.

Allen-Mahomes playoff matchups have averaged 63.7 combined points per game, but look for Allen to slow the game down with his legs to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. Perhaps that will be Buffalo’s recipe for success. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Allen’s rushes against the Chiefs in Week 11.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $7,500

Josh Allen scored 24 fantasy points and handed Patrick Mahomes his only loss of the 2024 season the last time these teams met, back in Week 11. The following week, Buffalo had its bye. Since that bye, Allen has averaged 28.6 fantasy points per game with an astronomical 21 total touchdowns (12 passing, nine rushing) and just one turnover in seven full games. And in eight career contests with Kansas City, Allen has averaged 27.2 fantasy PPG, scoring 20-plus in seven straight and totaling 94.9 points in their three playoff meetings. He’s the top QB on the slate … and arguably the top QB in the league.

No player flips a switch in the postseason quite like Travis Kelce. Kelce has 26 receptions, 289 receiving yards and five TDs against the Bills in the playoffs. Only Tyreek Hill has more receptions against one opponent in the postseason all time, and only Jerry Rice is tied with Kelce for the most postseason receiving TDs by a player against one opponent, per Next Gen Stats.

Kelce had a quiet night in Buffalo in Week 11, but has dominated the Bills outside of that loss. Across his first seven matchups against the Bills in the Patrick Mahomes era, Kelce recorded 51 receptions for 602 yards and eight TDs. On the flip side, Sean McDermott-led defenses have given up 35.7 points per game and 450.7 yards per game to Kansas City in the postseason. That’s significantly worse than his unit’s playoff performances against all other teams (18.3 and 331.4, respectively).

But Kelce’s playoff excellence is not restricted to Buffalo. Since 2018, the Chiefs TE leads the NFL in targets (181), receptions (149), receiving yards (1,726) and touchdowns (19) during the postseason. Kelce is coming off a vintage 117-yard performance in the Divisional Round and has strong momentum -- and history -- on his side this Sunday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Kelce’s performance against the Bills in last season’s Divisional Round.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $6,000

In his illustrious, future-Hall-of-Famer career, Travis Kelce has averaged 15.3 fantasy points per regular season game, more than any other tight end outside of Brock Bowers, who's played just one season. Pretty solid. But he becomes a different beast in the postseason, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. Across 23 playoff contests, Kelce has averaged 7.5 catches and 88 yards per game while snagging 20 receiving touchdowns. No matter what the Bills do on defense, Patrick Mahomes will look to Kelce when it matters most (i.e. the entirety of this AFC Championship Game). Expect him to outscore every tight end and most of the FLEX plays on this slate.