Week 2 NFL picks: Bills or Dolphins on Thursday night? Can Bengals upset Chiefs at Arrowhead?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their picks for each Week 2 game below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 12 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 12

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: These upper-echelon contenders mirrored each other in Week 1, starting slow before mounting comebacks built on their respective strengths, with the Bills carried by Josh Allen and the Dolphins lifted by their otherworldly offensive speed. The separator on Thursday will probably be a big play or two. Buffalo's defense hemorrhaged points and yards to Arizona in the early going on Sunday and will be without Taron Johnson and Dawuane Smoot. Could Gregory Rousseau keep the good vibes rolling from his three-sack opener and disrupt Tua Tagovailoa enough to prevent him from finding Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? I'll pin my hopes on the Dolphins' ability to break off enough monster gains to make the difference on a short week at home, especially if De'Von Achane plays.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 15

Why Ali picked the Ravens: Look past the paltry run production, multiple turnovers, missed audible opportunities and failed stunt pickups against the Chargers, and there was a Vegas team that led at halftime and was within one score with less than four minutes remaining. Most of the Raiders' troubles on offense were self-inflicted, which means, in theory, they can solve them themselves. On defense, there were reasons for optimism -- despite what the traditional data might suggest. Per Next Gen Stats, the Raiders generated the fourth-highest pressure rate in Week 1 and had the fourth-lowest percentage of rushes over expected -- basically, save for two big plays, they were extremely effective stopping L.A.'s run game. So how does this translate in Part II of their Harbaugh double feature? Well, that depends on how much Vegas' offense can clean things up in seven days, whether Baltimore's vulnerable O-line can win consistently against Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, and whether Lamar Jackson's "day off" has him feeling refreshed after all the hits he took (and delivered) last week. If the reigning MVP is able to mitigate the Raiders' pass rush with his legs, and get involved in the ground game -- even as a decoy -- it should open up opportunities for Derrick Henry, who's made a Hall of Fame-caliber career out of wearing down defenses with 3-yard gains before breaking off soul-crushing 70-yarders. Not ruling anything out -- especially after last week's shocker in Cincinnati -- but Gardner Minshew and Co. will have to play a near-perfect game in Baltimore for Vegas to hit snake eyes on the season.

Why Gennaro picked the Chargers: One of the most underrated statistics from last season: Carolina's Derrick Brown set an NFL record for defensive tackles with 103 tackles. That's an astonishing total for a 6-foot-5, 320-pounder who plies his trade in the trenches. It's a testament not only to Brown's elite run-stuffing ability but also the rare endurance that allowed him to play a whopping 940 snaps in 2023. That's what makes his season-ending knee injury so devastating to the Panthers. This is a crushing blow to a defense that nearly yielded a 50-burger to New Orleans in Week 1, and the personnel loss feels particularly troublesome for this matchup awaiting Carolina in Week 2. With Jim Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers have a clear intent: Run. The. Football. The Panthers just gave up 180 rushing yards with Brown playing 60 snaps. What happens when the Pro Bowl DT doesn't even suit up?

Why Tom picked the Cowboys: These teams both coasted to such easy victories in Week 1 that I'm pretty much throwing those results out the window when trying to divine a winner here. New Orleans' blowout of Carolina might be slightly more instructive than Dallas' trouncing of Cleveland, because it confirms the Saints have at least enough offensive verve to make Micah Parsons and Co. work on defense. But for the sake of this prediction, we might as well dial back to last week, when I would have said the Cowboys are clearly the more talented team -- that's the same thing I'd say today. I'm not going to overthink this one. Dak Prescott helps end New Orleans' unlikely run of 40-burgers (going back to last season) at two.

Why Dan picked the Lions: With All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. sidelined by a foot injury, starting CB Zyon McCollum recovering from a concussion and backup CB Bryce Hall likely out for the season, it's already getting thin in the Tampa Bay secondary. The timing is not ideal for the Buccaneers to be charged with trying to keep Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta in check. Might the Bucs be regretting trading Carlton Davis to the Lions, at least this week? Perhaps the expected fill-in for Winfield, Christian Izien, rises to the challenge. After all, the odds were stacked against him as an undrafted rookie last season, but he still made the team and picked off a pass in each of the first two games of his career. If Todd Bowles can confuse Jared Goff enough to cause some turnovers, this game could flip in Tampa's favor. We should all be expecting Baker Mayfield and Co. to make their share of plays. I just trust the Lions' offense a lot more than a beat-up Bucs defense.

Why Ali picked the Colts: Malik Willis is 1-2 as a pro with a 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 52.2 completion percentage. He's been sacked 15 times on just 94 dropbacks, including on one of his two snaps last week in Brazil. Willis' 16 percent sack rate is the highest of any quarterback with at least 90 dropbacks since 2018, per Next Gen Stats. As good of a coach as Matt LaFleur is, three weeks is just not enough time to work magic with Malik. Expect a classic Josh Jacobs bell-cow effort on Sunday, with a healthy amount of WR sweeps/quick-hitters mixed in, as well. Ultimately, I think the Anthony Richardson roller-coaster ride provides more peaks than valleys and the Colts' D-line applies too much pressure, pinning the Packers at 0-2.

Why Brooke picked the Jaguars: History shows just how important this game is to both teams. The Jaguars have never made the playoffs in a season where they started 0-2, while the Browns have not made the playoffs after starting 0-2 since 1980. Based on what I saw in Week 1, the Jaguars look like the better team here, boasting competent QB play. If not for a goal-line fumble, they likely beat Miami and aren't facing the dreaded 0-2 start. Cleveland's defense is under a lot of pressure to keep the team in this roadie, and it'll look to fearless leader Myles Garrett to disrupt Trevor Lawrence, who was sacked three times on 24 dropbacks last week (highest rate in the NFL). That could be the Browns' saving grace because it likely won't be Deshaun Watson, who was (in his defense) hung out to dry by his Jedrick Wills/Jack Conklin-less O-line against Dallas, as he was pressured a league-high 25 times. But the thing is, Watson wasn't just bad last week. He's been bad. Look at this stat from NFL Research: Watson's 78.1 passer rating since being acquired by the Browns in 2022 ranks 43rd among 45 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts during that span, ahead of just Zach Wilson (75.4) and Bryce Young (71.5). Not great.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: The Vikings -- and dare I say, Sam Darnold -- impressed last week in a road blowout of the Giants. They were prepared, made big defensive plays (two INTs and five sacks) and executed a balanced game plan on offense. I'm curious to see if that same team shows up against a perennial contender in the 49ers, who were far from perfect in Week 1 but still routed Aaron Rodgers' Jets by two scores. I can honestly see this tilt going either way (remember, Minnesota won this matchup without Justin Jefferson in Week 7 last season), because while the 49ers have a more complete roster (even if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play) and higher ceiling, the Vikings have an improved defense and one of the league's best home-field advantages. Not to mention, Kevin O'Connell's play-calling has (again, dare I say) Darnold playing the best football of his career. Small sample size, I know, but he did complete his first 12 pass attempts against the Giants. And another thing: This game feels like it means a lot more for Minnesota. We all know where the Niners will be come January, but a win for Minnesota on Sunday could propel this group into being this season's surprise playoff contender. The Vikings pick up where they left off and make just enough plays to squeak this one out.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: It would be very NFL for the team so many had pegged as the worst in the league to start the season 2-0. I'm not ready to proclaim these Patriots as repeat agents of chaos, though. The concerning thing from their upset of the Bengals was the heat Cincinnati was able to put on the quarterback. Jacoby Brissett faced the highest pressure rate (48.3%) of any starting QB in Week 1 despite being blitzed at the seventh-lowest rate (17.2%). If Mike Macdonald is truly a defensive mastermind, he will see that opening and exploit it to Seattle's advantage. I'm buying into the New England defense being better than expected, but I'm still out on the team's offense. The Pats were the only squad that did not have a play go for 20-plus yards in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Seahawks had three such plays in Week 1, with each of them ending in a touchdown. Seattle looks like the more complete team.

Why Tom picked the Jets: Before I explain why I picked the Jets, I have to say: I'm not sure I believe in the Jets. Yes, this might be one of those blurbs that makes too convincing a case against my prediction. Neither Aaron Rodgers nor Gang Green's defense appeared to be operating at full powers last week. And while playing the Titans in Nashville at 1 p.m. ET is not as imposing an assignment as opening the season in San Francisco in prime time, the road is not usually the ideal place to work out kinks. Then again, Will Levis might be exactly the kind of quarterback to give New York's defense a chance to get right. If the Jets follow the same blueprint Chicago did in Week 1, pressuring Levis into making game-changing mistakes, Rodgers could have some breathing room to get into rhythm and secure his first win since Jan. 1, 2023.

Why Gennaro picked the Giants: Jayden Daniels was the most impressive rookie quarterback in Week 1, but it wasn't exactly a passing clinic. Daniels' most potent production in the 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay came via his legs, with the No. 2 overall pick basically looking to tuck and run whenever the opportunity presented itself. That approach didn't thrill Dan Quinn, who made it abundantly clear on Monday that most of Daniels' 16 carries (which resulted in 88 yards and two touchdowns) were NOT designed runs: "We'd love to see him remain a passer first," the coach said. This coming Sunday, though, Daniels could be forced to run -- for his life. Washington's suspect O-line held up surprisingly well against the Buccaneers, but the Giants present a much stiffer challenge up front. It begins in the middle with Dexter Lawrence, the gargantuan game-wrecker who provides unique pass-rushing ability from the nose. On the edges, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux were quiet in Week 1, so the hyped tandem should be champing at the bit to make an impact. Please protect yourself, Jayden.

Meanwhile, Daniels' quarterbacking counterpart in this contest, Daniel Jones, is fresh off a terrible, tabloid-titillating performance. But is there a better get-right opportunity than facing this porous Commanders defense?

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: Kyren Williams absolutely obliterated the Cardinals in last season's series sweep. Spearheading a pair of easy wins over Arizona, the Rams running back racked up 301 yards rushing (at 8.4 a pop), 61 yards receiving and three total touchdowns. So, after encountering some tough sledding last week in Detroit, Williams is poised to bounce back with a big day in Arizona, right? Well, Los Angeles' offensive line is already in disarray due to injuries and suspension. On the plus side, the Cardinals' defensive front is one of the league's more underwhelming units, so I still trust Sean McVay to scheme his way around the O-line challenges. And even with Puka Nacua on injured reserve, I still trust Matthew Stafford to do damage against a secondary that really leaves something to be desired beyond Budda Baker. With a healthy Kyler Murray flanked by enticing young weaponry, the Cardinals are the team of your heart. But the Rams, with a healthy Stafford troubleshooting alongside McVay, are the team of your head. In a toss-up game, back the brain.

Why Dan picked the Steelers: A rookie quarterback going against a Mike Tomlin-coached team is usually not a fair fight. Consider: Rookie QBs are 6-24 versus the Steelers in the Tomlin era (since 2007), which means Tomlin has the third-highest winning percentage in such games of any head coach since 1950. History is not on your side, Bo Nix! The 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft had a rough welcome to the NFL, averaging 3.3 pass yards per attempt in Week 1 (lowest by a QB with 40-plus attempts in a game since 2021). Now he has to try to bounce back with T.J. Watt breathing down his neck? What did Nix do to deserve this misfortune? Of course, if likely Steelers starter Justin Fields falls on his face, Sean Payton might be able to scheme up enough plays for his newbie passer to sneak out of Week 2 with a victory. If Fields takes care of the ball, it's hard to imagine Pittsburgh leaving town with an L.

Why Ali picked the Chiefs: Being on the wrong side of the biggest upset of opening weekend has to be gnawing at Joe Burrow, who's simply too good to be a head-scratching 1-8 (soon to be 1-9) during Weeks 1 and 2 for his career. Although Cincinnati's offense course-corrected to a degree in the second-half last Sunday (10 points > 0 points, three 3-and-outs and a fumble), the unit showed little overall to suggest one week's time -- against a better defense in a less friendly environment -- will lead to a markedly better performance. Perhaps if Ja’Marr Chase is more involved, and Tee Higgins (hamstring) is available. Even then, I have my doubts. The Bengals' early-season woes continue in Kansas City, where the Chiefs prove all three phases are already in championship form.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: C.J. Stroud just authored one of the most impressive rookie seasons ever, deftly managing the game's preeminent position behind an injury-riddled offensive line to lift the Texans from worst to first in the AFC South and post a rollicking playoff win. Truly extraordinary stuff. But in today's microwave culture, our search for The Next Big Thing never ends! So, when long-ballyhooed prospect Caleb Williams landed on a solid Chicago roster, we naturally wondered if the rookie could be "this year's Stroud." The initial returns? Not great. Yeah, the Bears won their home opener, but they did so without scoring an offensive touchdown. Williams, who famously scoffed at the concept of nervousness, looked far from composed, with 29 scattershot passing attempts producing a meager 93 yards. So, what should we expect when the 22-year-old travels to Houston for a prime-time tilt against Stroud himself? Oddly, I kind of like this spot for Caleb. After the opening dud in Chicago -- a city so starved for good quarterback play that the No. 1 overall pick would be forgiven for feeling the collective hunger pangs in Soldier Field -- Williams hits the road as a significant underdog with nowhere to go but up. I don't have the chutzpah to pick the upset, but I do have a feeling Chicago keeps it close behind a more inspiring effort from the would-be franchise savior.

MONDAY, SEPT. 16

Why Brooke picked the Eagles: The Eagles offense had an up-and-down outing in the Brazil win. They had five plays of 20-plus yards, yet Jalen Hurts had three turnovers. Despite the fact that Hurts has been careless with the ball at times -- he has at least one giveaway in his last six games -- the man knows how to score. He has the second-most offensive TDs since the start of the 2023 season, behind only Josh Allen. Like Hurts, Kirk Cousins knows all too well about the turnover struggles; he had two bad picks in his debut with Atlanta. But unlike Hurts, I don't trust Cousins to regularly put up points, especially in a new offense and coming off the Achilles injury. Both teams have no shortage of offensive playmakers, and I give the Falcons the edge on defense, as they held the Steelers out of the end zone in Week 1 while the Eagles allowed seven plays of 20-plus yards and nearly 30 points to Green Bay. But I'm taking Hurts over Cousins any day, and twice on a Sunday when this matchup is played at The Linc.

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