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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures for top NFC teams
In Week 17's Next Gen Stats Photo Essay, NFL Research's Matt Reinhart dissects the numbers behind the seven NFC teams with the best chance to make the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers' 2020 campaign could be remembered as his best, with the Packers in position to claim the No. 1 seed and coveted first-round bye in the NFC. Rodgers has been nearly flawless this season, using play-action at his highest rate in the last five seasons (28.4% of dropbacks) and leading the NFL with 19 TDs and a 134.9 passer rating on play-action passes. In fact, Rodgers' 19 play-action touchdowns are two more than he threw in the 2016-19 seasons combined and the most by any player in a season since 2016. Rodgers' supporting cast -- all-world WR Davante Adams and the three-headed backfield monster of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon -- should be recognized, as well. Adams has shown why he is viewed as one of the best route runners in football this season, catching a TD pass on seven different routes -- the most by any player in the NFL. If the Green Bay defense can continue to perform, the Packers are looking tough to beat in the NFC.

Since returning from a rib injury in Week 15, Drew Brees has looked like a different QB than in his first 10 games of the season. Through Week 10, Brees averaged 5.8 air yards per attempt (second-fewest in the NFL). But in his two games back from injury, he's averaged 8.6 air yards per attempt. Brees has attempted a deep pass on 13.3 percent of his throws over the last two weeks, after going deep on just 3.0 percent of passes in Weeks 1-10. While Brees' deep-ball production since the return hasn't exactly been eye-popping (2 for 8, 68 yards, TD), he has dominated the intermediate area of the field (10-19 air yards). Brees' 252 yards on intermediate passes in Week 16 vs. Minnesota was the most by any QB on intermediate passes in a game in the last two seasons. Coming off his record-tying, six-touchdown game, Alvin Kamara is happy to see Brees back in the lineup, too. After leading the NFL with a 36.9 percent target rate through Week 10, Kamara was targeted on just 23.5 percent of his routes with Taysom Hill at QB. But he's been more involved in the passing game in the last two weeks. The Saints have experience at QB, but will that be enough in the NFC this season?

Russell Wilson's 2020 season has been filled with ups and downs, but which Russ will show up for the Seahawks' playoff push? Wilson leads the NFL in numerous passing categories: some good, some bad. For starters, Wilson paces the league with eight passing touchdowns when under pressure, but he has 11 interceptions when NOT under pressure, also most in the league. Russell's 13 deep passing TDs top all NFL quarterbacks, but his five INTs on short passes rank near the top, as well (tied for sixth-most). Always adept at passing on the run, Wilson boasts 11 scoring strikes in this area (ranking second in the NFL), but his five picks while on the run lead the league. Outside of Wilson's inconsistency, the lack of a pass rush is the other major worry for Seahawks fans. Jamal Adams is the premier pass-rushing defensive back in the NFL (24 pressures, most by any DB in last five seasons), but that's been the lone bright spot for the Seattle pass rush. Pete Carroll and company will be looking for some special plays from Wilson and Adams to fuel Seattle's first Super Bowl run since the 2014 campaign.

Tom Brady has adapted to his new surroundings in 2020, fitting into Bruce Arians' deep-passing offense despite some speed bumps along the way. Brady is averaging 9.2 air yards per attempt (second-most in the NFL) and goes deep on 14.1 percent of his passes (third-highest in the NFL), both the highest marks for Brady in the last five seasons. Since Week 12, Brady has been the best deep passer in the NFL, posting 14 completions, 493 pass yards and five scores (all most in the NFL) on throws of 20-plus air yards. This comes after a brutal stretch where Brady missed on 19 straight deep passes from Weeks 8-11 (the Buccaneers went 2-2). And despite using play-action at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL, Brady's 13 TDs and 126.5 passer rating on play-action passes both rank in the top three. In fact, Brady has completed six of his last seven deep passes when using play-action. Look for Brady and the Bucs to continue stretching the field in their push to host Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.

After a wild couple of weeks (years?) for the Washington Football Team, coach Ron Rivera hopes to have veteran QB Alex Smith back from injury to guide the team to its first playoff berth since 2015. Smith leads a Washington QB group with the lowest passer rating on deep passes this season (46.4), which is in large part due to just-released Dwayne Haskins' NFL-worst 1.9 rating on deep attempts. Smith's 42.7 passer rating on deep passes isn't much better, but Smith sets himself apart in the intermediate passing game. Smith's 69.2 percent completion rate, 15.2 yards per attempt and +12.9 percent completion rate above expectation all rank first in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks on passes of 10-19 air yards. Combine Smith's leadership with presumptive NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young's explosive pass rush (four turnovers forced on QB pressures, tied for fourth-most in NFL), and the Football Team has a good chance of sneaking into the playoffs as 7-9 division champions.

Despite Jared Goff's struggles this season (most INTs on short passes with eight), the loss of Los Angeles' QB1 should have a dramatic impact on the Rams' offense in a win-and-you're-in Week 17 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Sean McVay hopes that his defensive stars can lead the team back to the playoffs for the third time in his four seasons as head coach. Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Co. should be up to the task, and their stats from this season back that up. Donald once again ranks in the top three in the NFL in total QB pressures this season (65, second-most behind T.J. Watt's 71), just as he has in each season since 2016. Combine Donald's pressure with the Rams having the stingiest deep passing defense in the NFL (26.1 passer rating allowed, 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio -- both best in NFL), and L.A. has more than a fighting chance to take down the Cardinals and advance to the playoffs.

The decision to return to Mitch Trubisky as the starting QB has paid off for the Chicago Bears, as they are still in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC after winning three in a row. The Bears have averaged 33 points per game in Trubisky's five starts since Week 12, and have schemed up a more QB-friendly offense than the one Trubisky ran in Weeks 1-3. Trubisky is averaging nearly 3 air yards per attempt less in Weeks 12-16 (7.4) than in Weeks 1-3 (10.2) and is targeting open receivers (3+ yards of separation) on 47.3 percent of his passes over the last three weeks, compared to 30.2 percent in Weeks 1-3. Matt Nagy has used play-action to scheme up open throws for Trubisky, who leads the NFL with a 34.9 percent play-action rate this season. Trubisky's receivers average 4.0 yards of separation on play-action passes, and only 2.9 on non-play-action dropbacks. Trubisky has taken advantage of this separation and is the only qualified QB to complete 90-plus percent of his passes to open receivers this season. If the Bears' receivers continue to get open and Trubisky plays mistake-free football, the Monsters of the Midway could do some damage in January.