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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape Week 6
In this week's edition of the Next Gen Stats Photo Essay, NFL Research's Zach Feldman dissects the numbers behind the most intriguing storylines heading into Week 6.
![T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree have both been dominant pass rushers this season for the Steelers. Watt's average get-off of 0.57 seconds when aligned as an edge rusher would be the fastest recorded since 2018 if it holds, while Dupree's 0.66 average get-off would be the third-fastest recorded since 2018 (minimum of 75 pass rushes). They've also both been turning that speed into production. Dupree ranks fourth in the NFL with 20 QB pressures off the edge and second with a 16 percent pressure rate, while Watt is tied for seventh with 15 pressures and ranks sixth with a 15.2 percent pressure rate. The two have headlined a Steelers pass rush that ranks first in the NFL with a 42.9 percent pressure rate and 12.3 percent sack rate.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/g0efrbb8qncxccapt42m.jpg)
T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree have both been dominant pass rushers this season for the Steelers. Watt's average get-off of 0.57 seconds when aligned as an edge rusher would be the fastest recorded since 2018 if it holds, while Dupree's 0.66 average get-off would be the third-fastest recorded since 2018 (minimum of 75 pass rushes). They've also both been turning that speed into production. Dupree ranks fourth in the NFL with 20 QB pressures off the edge and second with a 16 percent pressure rate, while Watt is tied for seventh with 15 pressures and ranks sixth with a 15.2 percent pressure rate. The two have headlined a Steelers pass rush that ranks first in the NFL with a 42.9 percent pressure rate and 12.3 percent sack rate.
![Andy Dalton will step in as the quarterback for the Cowboys now that Dak Prescott is out for the season with an ankle injury. The Cowboys have struggled to keep the heat off their QBs this season, allowing a 34.1 percent pressure rate (second highest in the NFL), but Dalton's quick release could help mitigate that issue. Dalton's 2.52-second average time to throw is the fastest in the NGS era (since 2016), while Prescott has the ninth-slowest time to throw in the NGS era (2.84 seconds) among QBs with at least 800 attempts over that span. Despite a stark difference in time to throw, Dalton has thrown the ball downfield at a similar rate to Prescott since 2016. Dalton has averaged 8.3 air yards per attempt with a 10+ air yards rate of 34 percent, both of which are in line with Prescott's 8.5 air yards per attempt and 32.3 percent rate of 10+ air yards. The Cowboys are going to miss Prescott, but they still have hope with Dalton at the helm.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/isakvph4vsfpkfwdemsm.jpg)
Andy Dalton will step in as the quarterback for the Cowboys now that Dak Prescott is out for the season with an ankle injury. The Cowboys have struggled to keep the heat off their QBs this season, allowing a 34.1 percent pressure rate (second highest in the NFL), but Dalton's quick release could help mitigate that issue. Dalton's 2.52-second average time to throw is the fastest in the NGS era (since 2016), while Prescott has the ninth-slowest time to throw in the NGS era (2.84 seconds) among QBs with at least 800 attempts over that span. Despite a stark difference in time to throw, Dalton has thrown the ball downfield at a similar rate to Prescott since 2016. Dalton has averaged 8.3 air yards per attempt with a 10+ air yards rate of 34 percent, both of which are in line with Prescott's 8.5 air yards per attempt and 32.3 percent rate of 10+ air yards. The Cowboys are going to miss Prescott, but they still have hope with Dalton at the helm.
![After making his first career start in Week 2, rookie Justin Herbert has been nothing short of exciting. He ranks second in the league with 4 TD passes on throws with a sub-30 percent completion probability (Russell Wilson leads the league with 6) and he ranks fourth in average air distance per pass at 22.4. Herbert has seen good results despite having the league's eighth-lowest expected completion rate (62.9%) among QBs with at least 50 attempts. His downfield accuracy has him sitting at fourth-best in the league in completion percentage over expectation at +5.9. While the Chargers have a bye in Week 6, we should expect more big plays from the 2020 first-round pick as the season goes on.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/oxw29z7g9e8falnabt90.jpg)
After making his first career start in Week 2, rookie Justin Herbert has been nothing short of exciting. He ranks second in the league with 4 TD passes on throws with a sub-30 percent completion probability (Russell Wilson leads the league with 6) and he ranks fourth in average air distance per pass at 22.4. Herbert has seen good results despite having the league's eighth-lowest expected completion rate (62.9%) among QBs with at least 50 attempts. His downfield accuracy has him sitting at fourth-best in the league in completion percentage over expectation at +5.9. While the Chargers have a bye in Week 6, we should expect more big plays from the 2020 first-round pick as the season goes on.
![The Texans had a much friendlier plan for Deshaun Watson in their first game since the firing of coach/GM Bill O'Brien. Watson used play-action on 27.8% of his dropbacks in Week 5 compared with only 16.0% in Weeks 1-4. Not coincidentally, Watson was pressured much less (11.1% pressure rate in Week 5, 27.1% in Weeks 1-4) and his production improved. Houston's QB1 had 0.44 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a +4.5 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) in Week 5, compared with 0.05 EPA per dropback and a -0.2 CPOE in Weeks 1-4. Clearly, greater use of the run fake (aka play-action) paid off.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/gxaj8kkjxpkex3qz2nxn.jpg)
The Texans had a much friendlier plan for Deshaun Watson in their first game since the firing of coach/GM Bill O'Brien. Watson used play-action on 27.8% of his dropbacks in Week 5 compared with only 16.0% in Weeks 1-4. Not coincidentally, Watson was pressured much less (11.1% pressure rate in Week 5, 27.1% in Weeks 1-4) and his production improved. Houston's QB1 had 0.44 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a +4.5 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) in Week 5, compared with 0.05 EPA per dropback and a -0.2 CPOE in Weeks 1-4. Clearly, greater use of the run fake (aka play-action) paid off.
![The Raiders' Henry Ruggs III, the first wide receiver selected in April's draft, missed a couple games this season due to injury, but he's flashed his ability to be a difference maker. Look no further than last week, when he exploded for 118 yards and a TD on two catches. Ruggs' expected points added (EPA) per play +/- (the difference in team EPA when the player is on the field compared with when he is off) is +0.21, the 15th-highest among wide receivers. As you would expect, Ruggs' presence is making a big difference for quarterback Derek Carr. Carr's EPA per dropback with Ruggs off the field is 0.14, but it jumps to 0.36 with Ruggs on the field. In addition, Carr's air yards per attempt is 7.6 with Ruggs on the field compared with 6.8 when he's not on the field. He has made just six receptions in his three games this season, but his impact is being felt in a big way when he connects with Carr.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/g0e0omgi4iqvoeabd4bm.jpg)
The Raiders' Henry Ruggs III, the first wide receiver selected in April's draft, missed a couple games this season due to injury, but he's flashed his ability to be a difference maker. Look no further than last week, when he exploded for 118 yards and a TD on two catches. Ruggs' expected points added (EPA) per play +/- (the difference in team EPA when the player is on the field compared with when he is off) is +0.21, the 15th-highest among wide receivers. As you would expect, Ruggs' presence is making a big difference for quarterback Derek Carr. Carr's EPA per dropback with Ruggs off the field is 0.14, but it jumps to 0.36 with Ruggs on the field. In addition, Carr's air yards per attempt is 7.6 with Ruggs on the field compared with 6.8 when he's not on the field. He has made just six receptions in his three games this season, but his impact is being felt in a big way when he connects with Carr.
![Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 28 QB pressures and six turnovers forced by pressure through Week 5. Since 2018, no player has had more than 6 turnovers forced by pressure in a single season. However, there might not be a QB better equipped to deal with Garrett than the one the Browns will face on Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger's 2.37 seconds average time to throw is the fastest in the NFL this season and his 16.8 pressure rate is the third lowest. Roethlisberger also ranks first in completion percentage (68.4%), yards per pass attempt (12.9), and passer rating (146.3) when under pressure in 2020 (minimum 17 attempts under pressure). Garrett will need to make quick work of the Steelers' offensive line if he wants to maintain his ultra-productive pace.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/ghsdlnlqymh6fbbzz4wc.jpg)
Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 28 QB pressures and six turnovers forced by pressure through Week 5. Since 2018, no player has had more than 6 turnovers forced by pressure in a single season. However, there might not be a QB better equipped to deal with Garrett than the one the Browns will face on Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger's 2.37 seconds average time to throw is the fastest in the NFL this season and his 16.8 pressure rate is the third lowest. Roethlisberger also ranks first in completion percentage (68.4%), yards per pass attempt (12.9), and passer rating (146.3) when under pressure in 2020 (minimum 17 attempts under pressure). Garrett will need to make quick work of the Steelers' offensive line if he wants to maintain his ultra-productive pace.