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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape Week 12
In this week's Next Gen Stats Photo Essay, NFL Research's Zach Feldman dissects the numbers behind the most intriguing storylines entering Week 12.
NOTE: All stats and rankings are current through Week 11.
![The Seahawks gave up a haul for Jamal Adams before the season started, and they clearly had a plan in mind for him as a massive part of the pass rush. Adams has rushed the passer on 23.2 percent of his defensive snaps, the highest by any DB this season (min. 75 defensive snaps). A groin injury sidelined the safety in Weeks 4-8, which had a big impact on the Seahawks' game plan. With Adams on the field, the Seahawks have blitzed on 41.6 percent of pass plays, while blitzing on just 20.2 percent of pass plays when Adams is off the field. Adams' 5.5 sacks and 14 QB pressures this season are the second- and third-most in a season by a DB in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The only DB to log a season with more sacks and pressures than Adams has in 2020 is Adams himself. He had 6.5 sacks in 2019, and Adams bested his 2020 pressures mark in 2019 and 2018 with 17 and 16, respectively. Carson Wentz should expect a lot of blitzes by Adams and the Seahawks in Week 12.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/mncbrtrcgpydkgidmg25.jpg)
The Seahawks gave up a haul for Jamal Adams before the season started, and they clearly had a plan in mind for him as a massive part of the pass rush. Adams has rushed the passer on 23.2 percent of his defensive snaps, the highest by any DB this season (min. 75 defensive snaps). A groin injury sidelined the safety in Weeks 4-8, which had a big impact on the Seahawks' game plan. With Adams on the field, the Seahawks have blitzed on 41.6 percent of pass plays, while blitzing on just 20.2 percent of pass plays when Adams is off the field. Adams' 5.5 sacks and 14 QB pressures this season are the second- and third-most in a season by a DB in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The only DB to log a season with more sacks and pressures than Adams has in 2020 is Adams himself. He had 6.5 sacks in 2019, and Adams bested his 2020 pressures mark in 2019 and 2018 with 17 and 16, respectively. Carson Wentz should expect a lot of blitzes by Adams and the Seahawks in Week 12.
![When two of the most recognizable names in football match up in Week 12, we should expect to see high-level QB play -- and two very different approaches to playing the position. Patrick Mahomes is known, among many things, for his ability to make great throws on the run and outside the pocket -- and the numbers back it up. The 25-year-old Mahomes has made 23.8 percent of his throws on the run (8-plus mph at pass forward; that's the third-highest rate in the NFL), while 19.5 percent of Mahomes' passes have been from outside the tackle box (the sixth-highest in the NFL). He ranks first in TD passes (10) and passer rating (121.4) when throwing on the run this season and first in TD passes (nine) and second in passer rating (122.3) throwing from outside the tackle box. He also has the second-fastest average speed at pass forward at 5.07 MPH (behind Drew Lock's mark of 5.25). On the other hand, Tom Brady is known for, among other things, his maneuverability within the pocket, though not as much outside of it (unfortunately, we don't have tracking data for Brady's juke on Brian Urlacher in 2006). The 43-year-old has the lowest average speed at pass forward at 2.53 MPH, which coincides with the highest percent of passes from inside the pocket (96.5) and the lowest percentage of passes on the run (2.5) this season. In a highly anticipated matchup, look for two QBs with very different styles.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/dw63kdfwx99cgdfaf5ma.jpg)
When two of the most recognizable names in football match up in Week 12, we should expect to see high-level QB play -- and two very different approaches to playing the position. Patrick Mahomes is known, among many things, for his ability to make great throws on the run and outside the pocket -- and the numbers back it up. The 25-year-old Mahomes has made 23.8 percent of his throws on the run (8-plus mph at pass forward; that's the third-highest rate in the NFL), while 19.5 percent of Mahomes' passes have been from outside the tackle box (the sixth-highest in the NFL). He ranks first in TD passes (10) and passer rating (121.4) when throwing on the run this season and first in TD passes (nine) and second in passer rating (122.3) throwing from outside the tackle box. He also has the second-fastest average speed at pass forward at 5.07 MPH (behind Drew Lock's mark of 5.25). On the other hand, Tom Brady is known for, among other things, his maneuverability within the pocket, though not as much outside of it (unfortunately, we don't have tracking data for Brady's juke on Brian Urlacher in 2006). The 43-year-old has the lowest average speed at pass forward at 2.53 MPH, which coincides with the highest percent of passes from inside the pocket (96.5) and the lowest percentage of passes on the run (2.5) this season. In a highly anticipated matchup, look for two QBs with very different styles.
![The Packers' pass rush, which dominated in 2019, has really picked it up after a slow first half of the season. The Packers led the NFL in 2019 with a QB pressure rate of 33.0 percent but ranked last in the NFL over Weeks 1-8 in 2020 with a mere 19.1 percent QB pressure rate -- and they were generating a QB pressure on just 16.9 percent of dropbacks when not blitzing in that span. However, since Week 9, the pass rush is looking like it did in 2019. The Packers' pressure percentage is up to 29.7 over Weeks 9-11, good for eighth-highest during that span. They've also been generating this pressure without needing to blitz more often; Green Bay has gone from blitzing 23.0 percent of the time in Weeks 1-8 to 23.4 percent in Weeks 9-11. The difference is coming from the front four. When rushing four or fewer in Weeks 9-11, they're pressuring the QB 32.9 percent of the time -- fifth-highest during that span, and a tick higher than their 2019 mark of 32.1. In Week 12, the Packers get to face their rivals from Chicago, whose QBs have been pressured 27.4 percent of the time, 10th-highest in the NFL.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/frezkfgu1dtc4vh4ejeg.jpg)
The Packers' pass rush, which dominated in 2019, has really picked it up after a slow first half of the season. The Packers led the NFL in 2019 with a QB pressure rate of 33.0 percent but ranked last in the NFL over Weeks 1-8 in 2020 with a mere 19.1 percent QB pressure rate -- and they were generating a QB pressure on just 16.9 percent of dropbacks when not blitzing in that span. However, since Week 9, the pass rush is looking like it did in 2019. The Packers' pressure percentage is up to 29.7 over Weeks 9-11, good for eighth-highest during that span. They've also been generating this pressure without needing to blitz more often; Green Bay has gone from blitzing 23.0 percent of the time in Weeks 1-8 to 23.4 percent in Weeks 9-11. The difference is coming from the front four. When rushing four or fewer in Weeks 9-11, they're pressuring the QB 32.9 percent of the time -- fifth-highest during that span, and a tick higher than their 2019 mark of 32.1. In Week 12, the Packers get to face their rivals from Chicago, whose QBs have been pressured 27.4 percent of the time, 10th-highest in the NFL.
![A matchup of the two teams that blitz most often in the NFL doesn't need any extra hype, but a Ravens-Steelers game will always take things to another level. The Ravens (46.1 percent) and the Steelers (41.4 percent) hold the two highest blitz rates in the NFL, but the numbers suggest they'll take very different offensive tacks in response. Ben Roethlisberger has been using quick passes to neutralize blitzes. His average time to throw of 2.29 seconds against the blitz is second-fastest in the NFL and has helped him put up 8.1 yards per attempt, 10 TDs and just one INT vs. the blitz. Lamar Jackson will not be playing after testing positive for COVID-19, but his replacement, Robert Griffin III, has dealt with the blitz similarly to Jackson in the past few seasons. Against the blitz in his three-year career, Jackson has spent 92.6 percent of his time inside the box and has been moving 4.65 mph at pass forward, eighth-fastest in the NFL since 2018 (minimum of 100 pass attempts against the blitz). Griffin's sample size is small (46 total pass attempts in Baltimore since 2018), but his tendencies against the blitz in that span resemble Jackson's (93.9% of his time spent inside the box; 4.55 mph at pass forward). Jackson has been broadly successful against the blitz in the long run (111.1 passer rating, fifth-best in the NFL since 2018), though he's taken a step back in 2020 (5.8 yards per attempt, four TD passes, -6.2 percent completion rate over expected against the blitz) after leading the league with 24 TD passes vs. the blitz in 2019. Griffin, meanwhile, has had considerably less success (52.1 passer rating, 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio). If the Ravens want to avoid a season sweep from the Steelers, they'll have to find a way to survive against a defense that will definitely be bringing the house.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/j5tmnjazwjoka9n5ptth.jpg)
A matchup of the two teams that blitz most often in the NFL doesn't need any extra hype, but a Ravens-Steelers game will always take things to another level. The Ravens (46.1 percent) and the Steelers (41.4 percent) hold the two highest blitz rates in the NFL, but the numbers suggest they'll take very different offensive tacks in response. Ben Roethlisberger has been using quick passes to neutralize blitzes. His average time to throw of 2.29 seconds against the blitz is second-fastest in the NFL and has helped him put up 8.1 yards per attempt, 10 TDs and just one INT vs. the blitz. Lamar Jackson will not be playing after testing positive for COVID-19, but his replacement, Robert Griffin III, has dealt with the blitz similarly to Jackson in the past few seasons. Against the blitz in his three-year career, Jackson has spent 92.6 percent of his time inside the box and has been moving 4.65 mph at pass forward, eighth-fastest in the NFL since 2018 (minimum of 100 pass attempts against the blitz). Griffin's sample size is small (46 total pass attempts in Baltimore since 2018), but his tendencies against the blitz in that span resemble Jackson's (93.9% of his time spent inside the box; 4.55 mph at pass forward). Jackson has been broadly successful against the blitz in the long run (111.1 passer rating, fifth-best in the NFL since 2018), though he's taken a step back in 2020 (5.8 yards per attempt, four TD passes, -6.2 percent completion rate over expected against the blitz) after leading the league with 24 TD passes vs. the blitz in 2019. Griffin, meanwhile, has had considerably less success (52.1 passer rating, 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio). If the Ravens want to avoid a season sweep from the Steelers, they'll have to find a way to survive against a defense that will definitely be bringing the house.
![When Andrew Whitworth landed on injured reserve with a knee injury suffered in Week 10 (eligible to return starting Week 14), the Rams faced a big challenge. However, to no one's surprise, Sean McVay and the Rams have done their best to change their scheme to adapt to the loss of Whitworth. With Whitworth on the field this season, Jared Goff has an average time to throw of 2.75 seconds and throws for 7.1 air yards per attempt. Without Whitworth, Goff's average time to throw has dropped to 2.55 seconds, and his air yards per attempt is down to 5.8. The short, quick throws have helped lower Goff's pressure and sack numbers without Whitworth. Goff has been pressured on 16.2 percent and sacked on 1.5 percent of dropbacks with Whitworth off the field, compared to a 24.3 pressure and 3.8 sack percentage with Whitworth on the field. The shorter and quicker passes have also made for easier throws as Goff's expected completion percentage has risen 2.1 percentage points, from 66.8 to 68.9, with Whitworth off the field. However, when Goff has thrown downfield (10-plus air yards), his passer rating has fallen from 106.2 to 83.9 with Whitworth off the field. It's still a small sample size, but the Rams have once again shown their ability to adapt their offense to their current situation.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/kx60yqj2yqjj5betezh8.jpg)
When Andrew Whitworth landed on injured reserve with a knee injury suffered in Week 10 (eligible to return starting Week 14), the Rams faced a big challenge. However, to no one's surprise, Sean McVay and the Rams have done their best to change their scheme to adapt to the loss of Whitworth. With Whitworth on the field this season, Jared Goff has an average time to throw of 2.75 seconds and throws for 7.1 air yards per attempt. Without Whitworth, Goff's average time to throw has dropped to 2.55 seconds, and his air yards per attempt is down to 5.8. The short, quick throws have helped lower Goff's pressure and sack numbers without Whitworth. Goff has been pressured on 16.2 percent and sacked on 1.5 percent of dropbacks with Whitworth off the field, compared to a 24.3 pressure and 3.8 sack percentage with Whitworth on the field. The shorter and quicker passes have also made for easier throws as Goff's expected completion percentage has risen 2.1 percentage points, from 66.8 to 68.9, with Whitworth off the field. However, when Goff has thrown downfield (10-plus air yards), his passer rating has fallen from 106.2 to 83.9 with Whitworth off the field. It's still a small sample size, but the Rams have once again shown their ability to adapt their offense to their current situation.