Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2023 campaign, ordered from most to least victories, with playoff berths noted.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 4.
Ceiling: 13.2
Floor: 9.3
FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Jalen Hurts is my QB3 in fantasy football. While I’m not forecasting another season of 13 rushing touchdowns, I do project he’ll have 11, with another 26 TDs through the air. My favorite stat on the Eagles from last season was that their offensive line (best in the league based on win share; forecasted to repeat in 2023) showed the least amount of fatigue from the first to fourth quarter. I measure this by reaction time and how long blocks are effective for O-linemen.
Ceiling: 12.8
Floor: 8.7
FanDuel over/under: 10.5
As we head into this fantasy football season, I feel like some people are forgetting about how awesome a healthy Deebo Samuel is -- but not this analyst! Deebo cruises past 750 receiving yards in 59.4 percent of my models. I project he’ll nearly reach 1,000 and he’s my WR16.
Ceiling: 11.2
Floor: 8.3
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Geno Smith stunned the football world last season, winning Comeback Player of the Year and leading the league in deep TD passes (20-plus air yards). This season, my models show more of a compromise, meaning Seattle won’t be as reliant on the deep pass but will still take advantage of their explosive pieces. Rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is recovering from wrist surgery, but once he’s ready to go, he has the upside to earn postseason accolades, given his talent and surrounding skill-position players.
Ceiling: 11.1
Floor: 8.0
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
The Vikings and Lions play against each other late in the season (Weeks 16 and 18), and the margin between them is razor thin. The Minnesota secondary was inconsistent last season, but if there’s one thing I can track from a metrics standpoint about new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ track record, it’s that he will get the issue fixed.
Ceiling: 10.8
Floor: 8.1
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Heading into the season, the Lions' offensive line ranks fourth overall in my book. Much of the offensive success in the latter stretch of last season came when Ben Johnson had play-action humming. Jared Goff paced the league with 17 play-action touchdown passes, per Next Gen Stats. With a rebuilt backfield and new pass catchers -- as well Jameson Williams' six-game suspension to start the season -- my models forecast some growing/adapting pains.
Ceiling: 10.5
Floor: 7.9
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The Week 1 divisional bout between New York and Dallas goes a long way in the playoff race, as I have Brian Daboll's crew knocking off the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The offseason additions to the passing game (tight end Darren Waller and receivers Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt) should give Saquon Barkley more room to operate. The star running back blows past 1,025 rushing yards in 56.7 percent of simulations.
Ceiling: 10.6
Floor: 7.0
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
I will say it now, and it applies to the Saints and Panthers, as well. The South is kinda up for grabs, with each team having some plusses and minuses. But one thing that is historically very helpful in this kind of race is a strong ground game. With a top-eight O-line, a cavalcade of enticing backs that includes a potentially elite rookie in Bijan Robinson, a high-caliber tight end in Kyle Pitts and a proven run architect in Arthur Smith, Atlanta's ability to control the clock may be the key to the South.
Ceiling: 10.2
Floor: 6.9
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
My two favorite Micah Parsons stats: 1) His burst (speed a player reaches in first 3 yards traveled) is No. 1 among pass rushers over the past TWO seasons; and 2) his win rate when computer vision shows that a blocker is squared up on him ranks in the top 10. Parsons should once again find himself in the thick of the Defensive Player of the Year race.
Ceiling: 9.8
Floor: 6.7
FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Producing and preventing big plays were sources of success last season in New Orleans, per NGS. Dennis Allen's squad leveraged WR Chris Olave on offense (his 5.4 receptions over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards ranked eighth-best in the NFL) and allowed the third-lowest completion percentage on these same downfield passes. With Derek Carr joining the party, Olave is my WR13 in fantasy.
Ceiling: 9.6
Floor: 6.4
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The South is kind of a jumbled mess. In fact, the division has the thinnest margin between the team projected to hit the postseason and the one projected to pick highest in the 2024 NFL Draft. With good health luck, this Panthers' defense should help Bryce Young as the No. 1 overall pick gets acclimated to the NFL.
Ceiling: 9.6
Floor: 6.0
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
D.J. Moore tops 825 receiving yards in 58.2 percent of my season-long simulations. (Think of 58 percent as being quite strong.) Should the Bears' offensive line improve even to average (the unit allowed Justin Fields to be pressured at the highest rate last season), Chicago has a nice path to more wins. Injuries in that group do make it more difficult, though.
Ceiling: 9.4
Floor: 5.1
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Aaron Jones earns more than 825 rushing yards in a whopping 59.5 percent of my season-long simulations, and Jordan Love tops 3,300 passing yards in 54.2 percent.
Ceiling: 9.4
Floor: 5.2
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Put Antonio Gibson on your fantasy target list. The fourth-year pro ranks as my RB21 with a lot of upside, so factor that into your return-on-investment calculation. Eric Bieniemy has admitted to coaching the Commanders hard. Gibson says he loves Bieniemy's intensity, and the back's profile -- in terms of types of runs he excels at -- seems to fit the mold for how we've seen this play-caller operate.
Ceiling: 7.9
Floor: 5.2
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Want to know two great reasons to consider Rachaad White as a top-20 RB in fantasy this season?
- He tops 1,000 rushing yards and 250 receiving in 55.0 percent of simulations.
- New Bucs QB1 Baker Mayfield ranked top 10 in pass attempts to running backs when he was with Cleveland over the time period of 2018 to 2021.
Ceiling: 7.0
Floor: 4.5
FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Cooper Kupp tops 1,400 receiving yards in 54.1 percent of my season-long simulations, which is way more than 1,250 yards (a figure he hits in 60.2 percent of simulations). I am aware of -- and have factored in -- his hamstring strain.
Ceiling: 5.2
Floor: 3.3
FanDuel over/under: 4.5
While the projected wins total is the lowest of all teams in 2023, that absolutely does NOT mean you should overlook James Conner in fantasy drafts. He is my RB18 this season.
