Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 12 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for AFC teams in the 2024 campaign, ordered from most to least victories, with playoff berths noted. Click here for the NFC rundown.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 2.
- Ceiling: 13.3
- Floor: 9.4
- FanDuel over/under: 11.5
The Chiefs earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 16.9 percent of my simulations, which is a wildly high percentage. Most seasons, the leader is around 10 percent -- tops -- this early on. The thing about the AFC that intrigues me: The playoffs are volatile (more games with a projected 50/50 range), so earning that bye is theoretically more valuable in this conference than it is in the NFC.
One fun Next Gen Stats note for you: Patrick Mahomes threw 44 deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards) between 2018 and 2021, which was the second-most in the league over that span. He has thrown only two such touchdowns since 2022. We all saw first-round pick Xavier Worthy break the 40-yard dash record at the NFL Scouting Combine this year (he ran 24.41 mph), so maybe this means the return of deep TD passes from Mahomes (assuming he gets at least a few single-high looks).
- Ceiling: 12.4
- Floor: 8.3
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
The Ravens' ceiling might look lower than you'd expect, but that is because the AFC North is my toughest-rated division this season (meaning more in-division games are closer to 50/50 contests) and Baltimore plays the first-place schedule, where its three unique opponents were all first-place finishers in their respective divisions last season, as opposed to cellar dwellers (this is part of why the Bengals slide ahead of the Browns and the Steelers).
And because the Ravens' quarterback is so special, we need a fun Lamar Jackson NGS note to start the season: Jackson has gained +1,768 rushing yards over expected since entering the league in 2018, +399 more RYOE than the next-closest player over that span, Browns RB Nick Chubb (+1,369).
- Ceiling: 12.6
- Floor: 8.8
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
C.J. Stroud generated +35.3 passing EPA in 2023, the seventh-most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. That is the third-most for any rookie QB since NGS started tracking data in 2016. Only Dak Prescott’s +127.5 in 2016 and Justin Herbert’s +84.4 in 2020 were higher. My model forecasts a more efficient Texans run game this season, which helps insulate their win-total floor, thanks to increased ball-control potential.
- Ceiling: 12.6
- Floor: 7.5
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
I told you earlier that Cincinnati's fourth-place schedule drove value in what I calculate to be the most challenging division in the NFL. Ahead of the preseason, the Bengals were my model’s pick to win the division. This tells you how much Ja'Marr Chase’s hold-in impacts this team.
One of my favorite notes on the Bengals is that adding DT Sheldon Rankins and safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Stone this offseason drove the win-share projection for the whole defense up three games.
- Ceiling: 13.5
- Floor: 8.6
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Next Gen Stats show that Aaron Rodgers generated +353.2 passing EPA between 2018 and 2022, second in that span to only Patrick Mahomes, who accounted for +815.4.
The Jets, Bills and Dolphins are neck and neck in my model, but Gang Green's narrowly on top in the AFC East. New York sprang up in recent days due to its increased odds of winning in Week 1 at San Francisco, thanks to the uncertainty around whether 49ers LT Trent Williams will continue his holdout into the regular season.
- Ceiling: 12.3
- Floor: 7.9
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
Changes to the defense, including losing Matt Milano to injury, create a greater need for offensive efficiency. The good news is Buffalo's O-line ranks sixth-best in my model. and the offense’s potential when using 12 personnel (two tight ends) is the highest in the NFL. This team also has Josh Allen, whose QB body control -- a metric that contextualizes a quarterback's effectiveness when out of stable throwing position -- ranks second only to Patrick Mahomes. The more the Bills can leverage pace in their favor -- whether via a run or a shorter pass that impacts the clock like a run -- the more they’ll track to the ceiling.
Their schedule is NOT easy, but one saving grace is that Buffalo faces Kansas City (Week 11) and San Francisco (Week 13) at home, two weeks apart with a bye in the middle.
- Ceiling: 12.0
- Floor: 8.7
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Injuries took a bit of a bite out of the Dolphins' win total. However, head coach Mike McDaniel's ability to scheme does take some of the sting out of that bite. For example, Tua Tagovailoa had an average time to throw of just 2.36 seconds last season, which was a tenth of a second quicker than any other quarterback. And Tua still managed to target intermediate routes (10 to 20 air yards) at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (25 percent).
- Ceiling: 11.0
- Floor: 6.5
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
I know I say this for every AFC North team, but let me mention once again that the division forecasts to be the league's most competitive.
One cool NGS note from last season is that Amari Cooper earned 629 receiving yards on vertical patterns, which include post, corner, go and wheel routes. That tied him with CeeDee Lamb for the second-most yards on such routes. Only Tyreek Hill had more with 1,129.
- Ceiling: 10.4
- Floor: 5.9
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
In the NFL's most stacked division, questions about the Steelers' offensive line get magnified in the win projection. However, the offense gained +216 rushing yards over expected on designed runs in 2023 (sixth-most in the league, per NGS). The arrival of new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, who has shown creative and effective run strategies, could help mitigate some of the O-line concerns.
- Ceiling: 10.9
- Floor: 7.2
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
New DC Ryan Nielsen’s scheme is well suited for Jaguars edge rusher Joshua Hines-Allen, and that should mean good things for Jacksonville's defense. Hines-Allen notched 96 pressures in 2023, the second-most in the NFL behind only Micah Parsons (99), per Next Gen Stats.
- Ceiling: 10.5
- Floor: 6.6
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
In 2023 the Colts recorded the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (51) and had four players with eight or more sacks (most in the NFL): Samson Ebukam (9.5), Kwity Paye (8.5), DeForest Buckner (8.0) and Dayo Odeyingbo (8.0). GM Chris Ballard says Ebukam is "a longshot" to play this season as he recovers from an Achilles tear, but the other three players return in 2024. Plus, Indianapolis picked edge rusher Laiatu Latu 15th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was the first defensive player selected after posting 63 pressures (fifth in FBS, per PFF), 13 sacks and an FBS-high 21.5 tackles for loss in 12 games at UCLA last season.
- Ceiling: 9.5
- Floor: 6.5
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Can we take a minute to appreciate Khalil Mack? Last season, he led the Chargers with a career-high 17 sacks, 22 QB hits, 21 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles. Mack is the only player in the NFL with 25-plus sacks and 10-plus passes defensed since 2022. He has eight or more sacks in eight of his last nine seasons and boasts 101.5 career sacks, second-most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2014.
- Ceiling: 9.2
- Floor: 5.0
- FanDuel over/under: 5.5
Rookie Bo Nix won the Broncos' QB competition in camp and projects to throw for at least 3,015 yards -- just over 177 yards per game -- in 59 percent of my season simulations.
Also, the Denver defense ranked 30th against the run last year, but the unit forecasts to rebound to around average (16th) in this area in 2024.
- Ceiling: 8.9
- Floor: 4.9
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Titans passers faced pressure less than 2.5 seconds after the snap on 19.7 percent of their dropbacks in 2023, the third-highest rate in the league, per NGS. I do know one thing: I have a lot of faith in new offensive line coach Bill Callahan getting the absolute most out of the O-line, something he has done at every stop along his illustrious career (most recently with the Browns). My model ranked last season’s Tennessee O-line 31st in the league. Big improvements here will help Brian Callahan (son of Bill) in his first season as head coach.
- Ceiling: 8.8
- Floor: 4.6
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Pro Bowl defensive end Maxx Crosby is a total nightmare for offenses, racking up a pressure on 12.7 percent of his pass rushes last season. With the Raiders paying big bucks to sign defensive tackle Christian Wilkins this offseason, it becomes even less attractive to line up against Las Vegas' front in 2024. PFF ranks Wilkins as the fourth-best interior defender against the run over the past two seasons and NGS credited him with 62 QB pressures in 2023, which was a career-high.
- Ceiling: 6.0
- Floor: 3.3
- FanDuel over/under: 4.5
I spent a lot of time evaluating off-ball linebackers this offseason, and we really don’t talk about the Patriots' Ja’Whaun Bentley enough. He tied for second on the team with 4.5 sacks and led New England in tackles with 114 last season. He calls the signals on the field for the defense and plays all three downs. My models like him because of his burst (speed reached in first 3 yards traveled) and ability to square his hips to his target without losing speed.
