Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 12 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2024 campaign, ordered from most to least victories, with playoff berths noted. Click here for the AFC rundown.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 2.
- Ceiling: 13.1
- Floor: 8.9
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
I tried to make a model to forecast how many times we'll see the "Brotherly Shove" this season, but now that Jason Kelce has taken one step closer to Canton and Saquon Barkley has been added to the run quotient, I couldn't get an estimate that had enough validity for usage as a funny note. (Math is funny, FYI.) What I did realize is that the changes in structure on offense, as well as at both coordinator positions, have created a really nice balance between continuity of players and new looks/twists to the game plan.
Furthermore, Next Gen Stats reminded me that Jalen Hurts completed 4.1 percent more of his passes than expected in 2023 (third-most among qualified passers). And on passes with a completion probability under 25 percent, Hurts connected on 10 of his 39 throws (both league highs) .
- Ceiling: 13.9
- Floor: 9.1
- FanDuel over/under: 11.5
I think it's worth saying this again before the season starts: Brock Purdy led all qualified passers in passer rating, yards per attempt, passing EPA and success rate in 2023, with those latter two measurements courtesy of Next Gen Stats.
The Niners sat atop my NFC rankings until the holdouts of LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk shaped the preseason (though Aiyuk is now back in the fold). Focusing specifically on Williams' immense impact: The first-team All-Pro left tackle allowed pressure on just 7.2 percent of his pass-blocking snaps in 2023, the fourth-best figure NGS charted among 34 left tackles with at least 300 pass-blocking snaps last season.
- Ceiling: 13.0
- Floor: 8.8
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff had the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio (31:4) and second-highest passer rating (116.3) when not pressured last season, including the playoffs. That pairs quite nicely with Detroit boasting the NFL's highest-ranked offensive line -- not just according to my win-share metric, but per PFF, too.
The Lions have finished in the top five in scoring and total offense during each of the past two seasons, and they return a large number of key components on that side of the ball. So, what's with the significant range between the ceiling and floor results? This is driven by uncertainty around this remade defense, specifically the secondary. Detroit's cornerback group has a high ceiling, but with a pair of rookies in line for snaps (Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), it's a volatile unit to project.
- Ceiling: 12.5
- Floor: 8.8
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Adding edge rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons over consecutive days in mid-August boosted Atlanta's win total by 0.2 wins in just 24 hours.
Another fun on the Falcons' D: Jessie Bates III has ranked in the top four in win share at his position during each of the past three seasons. He snagged six interceptions last year (third-most in NFL) and forecasts to be among the league leaders once again in 2024.
- Ceiling: 11.2
- Floor: 7.3
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Jordan Love was pressured in under 2.5 seconds on just 9.4 percent of his dropbacks in 2023, the second-lowest rate faced by any qualified passer. That's the kind of protection that helps a young field general gain confidence, something we definitely saw in the second half of last season from Green Bay's first-year starter. My model's biggest question for the Packers: How long will it take for the defense to get comfortable in new coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme?
- Ceiling: 10.3
- Floor: 6.9
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
How big a difference does CeeDee Lamb make? Well, during his holdout, my model had Dallas falling short of the postseason. Once he signed the four-year, $136 million extension, the Cowboys were playoff-bound! A fun NGS about him to tell your friends: Lamb was the most productive receiver against man coverage last season, leading the NFL with 70 targets, 49 receptions and 794 yards -- 132 yards more than any other receiver. He also gained a league-high 894 yards from the slot.
- Ceiling: 10.2
- Floor: 7.0
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Look, I know Aaron Donald retired in March, but I HAVE to put this here: Between 2018 and 2023, NGS credited the impending first-ballot Hall of Famer with 473 pressures -- eight more than any other player and 100(!) more than the next-closest defensive tackle. Computer vision also shows that Donald was double/triple-teamed more than anyone else during the span. What a game wrecker!
As for this season, I'm again excited to watch Matthew Stafford, the quarterback who once inspired me to create a whole new metric: next play after pressure. The 36-year-old boasts the highest passer rating in this area over the past nine seasons at a sparkling 105.4.
- Ceiling: 10.5
- Floor: 5.8
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
I love all this hype around Caleb Williams; Bears fans should indeed be super excited about the No. 1 overall pick. But let's not overlook just how good DJ Moore has become. NGS shows that Chicago's WR1 caught +15.1 receptions over expected in 2023, the second-highest figure of any player (behind only CeeDee Lamb).
- Ceiling: 9.9
- Floor: 6.4
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
This one is for my pal and NFL GameDay View cohost Gregg Rosenthal, the biggest Geno Smith fan I know: Smith had a 50.1 percent success rate on pass attempts against zone coverage, per NGS. He was one of just five qualitied passers north of 50 percent in this area, alongside Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa.
- Ceiling: 10.6
- Floor: 5.9
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Attention, fantasy fiends! My models project Mike Evans to rank sixth in TDs this season. Last year, per NGS, he ranked top five in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns when running vertical routes. With Chris Godwin returning to a full-time role in the slot, the outside connection between Baker Mayfield and Evans figures to bear plenty fruit once again.
- Ceiling: 9.2
- Floor: 6.7
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
I used to be able to write about Demario Davis being underrated, but fresh off his second straight Pro Bowl bid, the veteran linebacker is finally getting the respect he deserves. According to Next Gen Stats, when offenses targeted Davis last season, they lost 18.4 EPA -- the best number among all LBs. Since joining the Saints in 2018, he's allowed just 5.5 yards per target, which leads all players who have defended at least 250 targets over that period.
- Ceiling: 8.7
- Floor: 6.4
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Since entering the NFL in 2020, Justin Jefferson has generated +1,267 receiving yards over expected. He is one of just two players to have more than 1,000 such yards in this NGS statistic during that time period. The other: His former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase, who barely makes it at +1,001 -- though he's played one fewer NFL season than Jefferson.
- Ceiling: 8.5
- Floor: 4.6
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Even though Kyler Murray -- who is an exceptional runner -- only played in eight games last season, NGS shows that the Cardinals' offense gained +224 rushing yards over expected on designed runs, which ranked fifth. Look for efficient designed runs to again be a point of strength for this team, as prized rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., whose advanced route running in college helps forecast him to be a star, creates even more space for the ground game.
- Ceiling: 7.5
- Floor: 5.2
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
Last season, PFF credited defensive tackle Jonathan Allen with 37 stops and 49 pressures, which are very good numbers. And looking at a longer horizon of three seasons, according to computer vision, Allen's burst, second reaction (ability to win after making initial contact with the offensive player), lateral speed and win rates all firmly rank in the top 10 percent of the position. Dan Quinn has a long history of fielding special defenses, and Allen is a key piece for the Commanders' new head coach.
- Ceiling: 7.1
- Floor: 4.9
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
The defensive front is the strength of this team. Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux is coming off a breakthrough season with 11.5 sacks, and the 23-year-old is one of just three players with 15-plus sacks, five-plus forced fumbles and three-plus fumble recoveries since 2022. (The other two are T.J. Watt and Haason Reddick.) Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence has 49 QB hits since 2022 -- second-most among all DTs, behind only Chris Jones. Now, offseason addition Brian Burns provides Big Blue's front with even more juice. Since entering the NFL as a first-round pick of the Panthers in 2019, Burns has piled up 148 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) -- fourth-most in NFL, per NGS, behind only Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and Watt.
- Ceiling: 6.0
- Floor: 3.8
- FanDuel over/under: 5.5
Offensive guard Robert Hunt's production was spectacular last season, his final campaign in Miami before signing a $100 million deal with Carolina in March. PFF shows that he allowed just five pressures, the second-fewest of any full-time starter at guard in the NFL, and surrendered the lowest pressure rate (1.3%). While the Dolphins' quick-strike scheme helped, there's no reason to assume this won't also be the strategy in Carolina. Furthermore, when using computer vision to look at all of the plays where Hunt had to block for 2.5 seconds or longer, he still prevented his defender from getting past him (forget allowing a pressure, just letting the defender get by him) at a top-eight rate among guards.
