Last season, the two most rostered players on championship teams were running back Kyren Williams and wide receiver Puka Nacua (shoutout #RamsHouse), making them arguably the two most valuable players in fantasy. Why? Because while Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb were also in the top 10 on that list, they were drafted to be there. Williams and Nacua were waiver wire stars who broke out to finish among the best of the best.
It's hard to win your league with your first pick -- in fact, it's much easier to lose it -- but securing future elites through the rest of the draft, along with a diamond in the middle rounds, is a surefire shortcut to the fantasy playoffs and beyond.
With that in mind, here are 11 fantasy football breakout candidates for the 2024 season.
QUARTERBACK
All of Anthony Richardson’s snaps last season (173) came in two full games and two partial appearances. It’s an incredibly small sample size that gives us little to go on, but there’s one bit of math we do know. Richardson averaged 0.45 fantasy points per snap, the most at the position, ahead of Josh Allen’s 0.35.
Obviously, scoring four rushing touchdowns in less than four full games doesn’t hurt. Richardson likely won’t maintain that pace in 2024, but he’s a front-runner to lead QBs in rushing and has flashed the arm talent to do well in the passing game. Richardson has the breakout upside of MVP Lamar Jackson or early-career Cam Newton.
RUNNING BACKS
Gus Edwards seems to exist in most fantasy managers’ minds as an unexciting plodder. On the contrary, he has averaged more career yards per carry (4.86) than Christian McCaffrey and Adrian Peterson and a higher rate of 10-yard rushes (11.6 percent) than Derrick Henry and Todd Gurley.
Now, he’s in line for his first crack at a true starting role under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman in Los Angeles. This coaching duo ranked in the top eight in rushing yards in four straight years together in San Francisco -- including three top-four finishes. The Chargers are going to run the ball, and with J.K. Dobbins coming off an Achilles injury, Edwards is going to be the best bet for 250-plus carries.
Alongside players like Kyler Murray, Kyle Pitts and George Pickens, Isiah Pacheco is one of my favorite values and the guy I’m targeting most often at his position in fantasy drafts this season. He was a respectable RB15 in 2023, despite missing three games and ceding 32 targets to Jerick McKinnon (who’s currently a free agent).
Head coach Andy Reid recently spoke glowingly of Pacheco when asked about the open receiving back role, so I fully expect him to challenge for 300 opportunities in this backfield. The Chiefs offense should also experience a slight bounceback after a “down” 2023 campaign, which means more scoring opportunities for its lead back. In his third season, Pacheco has a clear path to a true RB1 breakout with 250-fantasy-point upside.
A sixth player from the AFC West?! Honestly, I’m not sure how this happened, but ... fantasy country, we ride. Like with Anthony Richardson, evaluating Zamir White involves projecting a small but potent sample size. When he became the Raiders’ starter in Josh Jacobs’ absence last season, he recorded four straight games with 20-plus touches and 13-plus fantasy points. His 60.7 total fantasy points over that stretch were ninth-most at the position, despite White finding the end zone only once.
The Raiders offense probably won’t be winning any awards with Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell under center in 2024, but I’ll take 300-plus carries in a bad offense any day -- the last 13 backs to hit that threshold in a season scored at least 250 fantasy points, which is stud RB1 territory.
After splitting work with Melvin Gordon as a rookie, tearing his ACL and LCL in Year 2, and then struggling to be efficient in his first season back from injury in 2023, Javonte Williams is nearly an afterthought in many fantasy drafts. It's a bad idea to overlook him. Even with his hampered play last season, Williams out-touched Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin by a Denver mile, finishing in the top 15 at the position league-wide with 217 carries and 47 catches.
He projects as the backfield leader again in 2024, and I expect his efficiency to skyrocket two years removed from the knee injury -- a conclusion supported by the expert in sports injury research that I trust the most. While his scoring upside might be capped in the Broncos offense, Williams is one of few RBs with 225-carry and 50-catch upside.
WIDE RECEIVERS
With career highs of 769 receiving yards, four touchdowns and 169.3 fantasy points (WR36) in a season, the breakout bar for Josh Palmer isn’t all that high. That said, his per-game numbers have nearly doubled with Keenan Allen absent, averaging 7.6 targets and nearly 60 yards per game without the veteran on the field. With Allen now in Chicago (and Mike Williams in New York), Palmer will be competing with rookie Ladd McConkey and no one else, really, for those valuable Justin Herbert targets.
When we last saw a Harbaugh-Roman offense (2014 Niners), a 34-year-old Anquan Boldin led the team’s WR corps with 219.6 fantasy points (WR18 overall) catching passes from Colin Kaepernick. Palmer has breakout upside in that realm, despite his current ADP of WR59.
Last season, George Pickens led all qualified receivers in yards per reception (18.1) but caught just 63 passes and scored just five touchdowns. Unfortunately, it was hard to expect much better with a QB room of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph that posted the league’s third-lowest touchdown rate and third-fewest completions as a team.
Now, with Diontae Johnson in Carolina, Pickens is the No. 1 target for either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. Both were more efficient than Pittsburgh’s passers last season, with Wilson facilitating 2.0 fantasy points per target for Denver’s wideouts, fourth-most by any QB in the league. Pickens should undoubtedly log more targets and catches in 2024, and a few extra touchdowns could even make him a WR1.
Rashid Shaheed flashed in spurts last season, logging five games with 65-plus yards and a touchdown but falling short of both marks in the other 10 contests. That said, it was only his second pro campaign, Michael Thomas had 61 targets through the first eight games, and Shaheed was a bit busy making first-team All-Pro as a returner.
With Thomas currently a free agent, Shaheed is primed for a boost in opportunity and a more consistent role on the offense. My colleague Adam Rank tagged him as a breakout candidate earlier this summer and other reports state Shaheed is “primed for a big year.” As a sleeper in the double-digit rounds of drafts, Shaheed has a sneaky shot at WR2 upside.
In two career seasons with an ugly hodgepodge of Jets quarterbacks, Garrett Wilson, the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, has finished as the WR21 and WR26 in fantasy. Now, entering 2024, he’s slated as the WR8 in ADP, sometimes in the first round of drafts. What gives?
Aaron Rodgers gives, and he keeps on giving. Over the years, Rodgers’ receivers have averaged 1.92 fantasy points per target, while Wilson has managed just 1.36 points per target under Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and others. If you instead drop that 1.92 average onto Wilson’s 315 career targets, he would have 604.8 fantasy points -- third-most in the league, behind Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb over the last two seasons. Yeah. He’s a stud in the making and a great pick at the 1-2 turn.
TIGHT ENDS
Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers was No. 5 in my top 10 tight end values article last week and is the first and only rookie I’m including here. Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects in NFL history -- maybe even the best. He’s been frequently compared to George Kittle but is likely a more pro-ready player than Kittle was back in 2017.
Tight end breakouts are typically reserved for Year 2, but after watching Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid in their respective 2023 rookie campaigns, I’m willing to break the mold (again) heading into 2024. Bowers is a fringe TE1 with the upside to crack the top five or six quicker than you can say, “Just win, baby!"
Despite being a rookie tight end with another solid pass catcher on the depth chart in Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid put together 150 fantasy points to finish as the TE11 last season. Some will point out he scored nearly half those points in the five games Knox missed with an injury. While that’s true, Kincaid also scored 52.5 points from Week 17 through the Divisional Round (with Knox active), a 17-game pace of 223 points that would have made him the TE3 overall.
Now, Kincaid enters his sophomore campaign with the 241 targets that once belonged to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis up for grabs in Buffalo. The 24-year-old tight end could very well be Josh Allen’s No. 1 option and challenge for a position high in targets and catches.
