Fantasy football 2024 Week 1 sleepers: Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford to cook?

Death, taxes and Baker Mayfield learning a new playbook. Mayfield had a career year last season under Dave Canales. This year, Liam Coen takes over as Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator. The pieces remain the same but expect the scheme to change. The Bucs were bottom-10 in the league in pre-snap motion last year. Coen plans to improve upon that. As a Sean McVay disciple, expect Coen to have Tampa moving its pieces around to get guys open. 

Look for plenty of that this week against a Washington defense that was very generous to quarterbacks last season. No defense allowed more fantasy points per game to the position in 2023. The Commanders hope some of their offseason additions shore things up -- notably second-round corner Mike Sainristil. Still, it seems optimistic to expect major improvement immediately. In what could be a sneaky high-scoring game, look for the quarterbacks to sling the rock. Mayfield's a high-end QB2 in the season opener. 

Stafford ain’t as good as he once was. But he's as good once as he ever was. OK, that's not really fair. The veteran Rams signal-caller finished last season on a roll, scoring 20-plus points in four of his final six regular-season games. From Weeks 12 to 17, Stafford was the QB6, averaging 20.8 FPPG. 

He opens 2024 against the same Lions squad that ended the Rams’ 2023 season in the playoffs. Detroit did a lot of things well last season. Defending the pass wasn't one of them -- likely why Detroit stocked up on corners this offseason. Even in the postseason loss, Stafford went for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Don't be surprised if he dials up more of the same to open the new year and reaches a low-end QB1 ceiling. 

Full disclosure: I was unsure what to do about the Broncos offense for a long part of the offseason. As we've neared the start of the season, though, I've started to come around on this group. My Javonte Williams stanship has gained new life. Bo Nix's preseason performances make Courtland Sutton look like a viable option. And then there's this ... 

Spears was one of those backs who had five or more catches against Seattle last year (Week 16). At just 27 receiving yards, there wasn’t much to be excited about. But it confirmed that the Titans saw Spears as an asset in the passing game. Nearly 70 percent of his snaps came on passing downs last year. It was disappointing for fantasy managers when Tennessee added Tony Pollard in the offseason, but his arrival doesn’t mean Spears is going to be abandoned in the Titans’ revamped attack. 

Expect proof of that in Week 1. The Bears struggled against pass-catching running backs last season: They allowed the most receiving yards to the position while also giving up the second-most receptions and receiving scores.

Spears’ particular set of pass-catching skills also plays into Will Levis' wheelhouse. The Titans quarterback worked the short part of the field almost one-third of the time. Twenty percent of his targets were to running backs. With no clearly defined roles in the Titans backfield (for now), Spears should be on the field plenty in the early weeks and has RB3 upside. 

Of the three main Packers receivers, Doubs was the one who fell farthest in drafts. He doesn’t offer the kaboom of Christian Watson. Nor is he a jack-of-multiple-trades like Jayden Reed. But Doubs did lead Green Bay in total targets last year. He earned targets on 20 percent of his routes -- on par with Watson’s target rate and not far from Reed’s 25 percent.  

Enter the Philadelphia Eagles. No defense allowed more fantasy points to receivers last season. In response, Philly spent its first two picks in this year’s draft on defensive backs. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean could be busy against Matt LaFleur’s mix-and-match WR corps. The Pack was league average in using three receivers. But it was above average in yards per play from that package. Look for Green Bay to get Doubs on the field as added stress to a rebuilding secondary. He has a WR2 ceiling in Week 1. 

Would it surprise you that the Rams ran the highest percentage of 11 personnel last season? No. No it would not. There’s a reason that a Van Jefferson hive once existed. (I was a Van stan for a couple of years.) It’s the reason that a Demarcus Robinson hive is forming now. Also, because he finished last season on a tear. He scored four touchdowns over the final six weeks and went for a combined 174 yards on 12 catches in Weeks 16 and 17.  

Enter the Detroit Lions. They allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers in 2023. In response (as noted earlier), Detroit spent its first two picks in this year’s draft on cornerbacks. Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. could be busy against McVay’s relentless WR corps. Like Hollywood, the NFL isn’t immune to reboots, sequels and copycats. In what could be one of the higher-scoring games of the week, Matthew Stafford should take some downfield shots to Robinson. He could be a flex option. 

Robinson has always felt like a Giants attempt at a do-over for Kadarius Toney. Last season, Robinson was the proverbial extension of the running game. He averaged less than 5 air yards per target in 11 games last year. The idea was to give Giants quarterbacks an option to get the ball out quickly -- something necessitated by a poor offensive line and receivers who struggled to get open downfield. 

That’s a philosophy that worked well against the Minnesota Vikings in 2023. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores played against type and deployed a zone-heavy scheme. That strategy was dictated by a personnel group that couldn’t muster a consistent pass rush and struggled in coverage. It also ended up with the Vikes being picked apart by short, quick throws. Minnesota hopes a bevy of defensive-centered offseason moves can change their approach. Expect Malik Nabers to see the bulk of Big Blue’s Week 1 targets, but don’t be surprised if Robinson is heavily in the mix, too. The third-year receiver is worth a flex shot in deeper leagues. 

It seems like Fant often gets left out of the conversation when we talk about Iowa tight ends and their success in the NFL. His career has been spectacularly mediocre so far, though he can’t be fully blamed for the results. He spent the first three years of his career in a bad Broncos offense, though he was a low-end TE1 in 2020 and 2021. He was then traded to Seattle, which had a passing game that was as narrowly funneled as it gets. But the times, they are a-changing. Gone are Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, who commanded a sizable snap share. In comes Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. 

During his tenure at the University of Washington, Grubb’s offenses used the middle of the field and featured the tight end. That bodes well for a player who is still very athletic. It also bodes well against a Broncos defense that was a soft target for opposing fantasy tight ends last year. Denver surrendered the most yards and touchdowns to tight ends with 10 different players having a weekly top-12 finish. It makes sense for Grubb and the ‘Hawks to try to attack the middle of the Broncos defense, giving Fant low-end TE1 upside. 

Life comes at you fast. One day, you’re a top-tier fantasy tight end and running off a string of top-10 seasonal finishes. The next, you’ve been replaced by a young hotshot in the desert and are trying to restart your career with a rebuilding club in Washington. We’ve all been there. Ertz is here now. While the draftniks and devy devotees will tout the bona fides of rookie Ben Sinnott, his time has not yet come. Score one for the old guys in Week 1. 

If the Broncos were the best matchup for opposing tight ends last year, the Buccaneers weren’t far off. Tampa Bay conceded the third-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to the position in 2023. The old adage about tight ends providing a security blanket for young quarterbacks has been mostly debunked. But Ertz is still talented enough to earn targets in an offense looking for complementary pass-catching options to Terry McLaurin. Ertz might not have a long fantasy shelf life in 2024, but he does have low-end TE1 vibes to start. 

There were long stretches of the 2023 season when you could say the Falcons offense let the Falcons defense down. That’s a weird sentence to read (and type), but it’s true. Atlanta had a top-10 pass defense last season. It was also a top-10 unit in yards allowed per play. However, it was saddled with one of the least productive offenses in the NFL. That meant it was frequently on the field.  

That should change this year. An overhaul in the coaching staff and at quarterback should improve Atlanta’s offensive fortunes. In turn, the defense should be helped. What should also help the defense is a Steelers offense that has major questions at quarterback and a lack of a standout secondary wide receiver. Pittsburgh could also have one of its top two running backs playing at less than 100 percent. Atlanta could be a streamer’s dream this season.