Through three weeks, we have a decent amount of data about the NFL season. We think we know enough about what we've seen to make more informed lineup decisions. But do we? Will Mark Andrews continue to be M.I.A.? Will J.K. Dobbins continue his career renaissance? Are the Vikings … good?
All these things and more have yet to be revealed. But you still need to set a lineup for this weekend. That's where the Sleepers column comes in. Consider this your insurance policy against players who are banged up or have unsavory matchups. However, you are not entitled to financial compensation if your lineup doesn't perform as expected. That's just how fantasy football works. This isn't an ad for mesothelioma.
Anyway … here are some names for Week 4.
QUARTERBACK
Let me be clear. This in no way suggests that the Bears have solved their offensive issues. Williams was sacked four times (13 times for the season) and pressured on 25 percent of his dropbacks last Sunday in Indy. But he did find some success throwing downfield for the first time in his young NFL career. Williams compiled 530 air yards (and 363 passing yards) across 52 attempts and connected with fellow rookie Rome Odunze six times for 112 yards and a touchdown.
This week, the Bears will welcome the Rams to the Windy City. Los Angeles is coming off a thrilling comeback win over the 49ers. But it didn’t come without issues. Brock Purdy threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings). That was a week after giving up 266 yards and three scores to Kyler Murray. The Bears’ passing operation isn’t likely to be as clean as either, but it could give fantasy managers their first real chance to consider using Williams in some lineups.
Three starts. Three wins. And steady improvement every week. At this point, it’s hard to imagine Fields being replaced as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback. In Week 3, the Steelers scored more offensive touchdowns (two) than they had in their first two games combined (one). This was also the first week that Steelers pass catchers made a notable impact. George Pickens posted his second game with at least five catches. And Calvin Austin III entered the chat with four receptions for 95 yards and a long touchdown.
The Colts defense is up next -- the same unit that gave Caleb Williams his first big passing yardage game. Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t typically have the same passing volume, so expecting Fields to throw for more than 300 yards is wishful. But where Fields could make up the difference is on the ground. Indy’s run defense was one of the worst in the NFL through the first two weeks. Even though Chicago didn’t test the Colts on the ground, Arthur Smith and the Steelers certainly will. Whether by air or ground, the arrow is pointing up for Fields in Week 4.
RUNNING BACK
I had few expectations for Singletary this season. That’s mostly because I had few expectations for the Giants offense. But it’s hard to argue that Singletary hasn’t performed well this season. He’s dominated New York’s backfield snaps with an 80 percent share and an increased number of touches every week. Rushing touchdowns in consecutive weeks haven’t hurt, either.
Another thing that won’t hurt is a matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas’ defense hasn’t done much to impede opposing running backs this season. They’ve allowed a league-worst 557 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Getting run over by Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry in back-to-back contests will do that to you. Singletary getting to 100 rushing yards might be too much to ask, but having flex appeal in Week 4 isn’t.
The Browns offense has been ungood. That’s putting it kindly. Deshaun Watson has been historically bad through the first three weeks. On the bright side, Cleveland’s run game has been average. Even a tarnished silver lining is still a silver lining. One week after it looked like D'Onta Foreman might be coming for his gig, Ford reasserted his grip on the RB1 job with more than 80 percent of the snaps.
That type of snap share could be useful against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas surrendered 114 yards to Chuba Hubbard -- just the fourth time in 52 career games that Hubbard had broken the century mark. Don’t let the Cowboys' terrible run defense distract you from the fact that the Raiders are allowing 5.4 yards per carry -- tied with Dallas for the league’s worst mark. Until the passing game improves, don’t be surprised to see Kevin Stefanski’s offense lean more on the run. Especially in a contest where game script isn’t likely to be an issue.
Clichés become clichés for a reason. If you need a reminder why “Any given Sunday” is a thing, check out the Carolina Panthers. After the first two weeks, the Panthers looked like a soft target for a fantasy manager wanting to rack up points. Then they made a quarterback change and reversed their entire fortunes en route to beating up the Raiders. It begs the question ... Was that more about the Panthers or the Raiders?
I’m willing to bet last Sunday was more about the Silver and Black. This is still a Carolina defense that is short on talent. It was gashed by Alvin Kamara and the Saints in Week 1. And it was trampled even further by J.K. Dobbins and the Chargers in Week 2. Now, Cincinnati’s offense is going to be more pass-heavy than either New Orleans' or Los Angeles'. But when the Bengals have run it, Moss has been their guy. With Cincy at 0-3 and in desperate need of a win, it might behoove them to #establish the run and control the tempo of the game.
WIDE RECEIVER
Through three games, it feels like we can erase the frustrating memory of Smith-Njigba’s rookie season. Under Shane Waldron, JSN was a short king. And by that, I mean the depth of his routes. His average depth of target (ADOT) has jumped more than 2.5 yards with Ryan Grubb at the controls of the Seahawks offense. In addition, Smith-Njigba has moved up the pecking order to overtake Tyler Lockett as Seattle’s WR2.
That is the backdrop to the Seahawks' Week 4 game against the Lions. Detroit’s secondary has improved from last season, but it has faced a high volume of pass attempts. Teams are throwing the ball 63 percent of the time versus the Lions and finding success in the short part of the field. With DK Metcalf taking the top off defenses, Smith-Njigba should have space to operate underneath. If Geno Smith can be patient, his young receiver could have a big day.
One thing is certain in Arizona: Marvin Harrison Jr. is looking every bit the stud receiver we expected him to be. As for who’s in the Trust Tree after him, well ... we’re still figuring that out. In the preseason, we thought Greg Dortch could be Kyler Murray’s go-to option. But aside from an adequate Week 1, Dortch hasn’t been lighting it up. Now a new challenger has entered the arena.
Michael Wilson had deep sleeper vibes last year as a rookie. He posted a couple of nice outings but struggled with consistency in an offense that was equally uneven. In Week 3, he made his first notable statement of the season with a team-high eight catches for 64 yards. More importantly, he’s second to Harrison in routes run. This week, he and the Cardinals take on a Commanders secondary that was good enough to get a win on Monday night, but still isn’t actually good. Look for Harrison to stay hot and Wilson to take another step forward.
TIGHT END
You’ve probably noticed by now that the fantasy tight end position has been, uh ... thin. Most of the guys we drafted early have either been injured (Evan Engram, David Njoku) or absent (Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews). That means a lot of fantasy managers have gone the streaming route.
Consider Kmet one of those options this week. With Keenan Allen out of the lineup in Week 3, Kmet had one of his best days as a pass catcher. He tied a career-high in receptions and fell just short of his second career 100-yard game. If Allen is unable to go again in Week 4 -- or is less than 100 percent -- Kmet should get plenty of opportunities against a Rams defense still looking for help in the middle of the field.
DEFENSE
The Jaguars offense is broken. That was on full display Monday night against the Buffalo Bills. Through three games, Jacksonville is 30th in scoring. Trevor Lawrence has just two touchdown passes and two games with fewer than 180 passing yards. The Jags have been slightly better on the ground. Don’t tell that to Travis Etienne managers, who are starting to worry that Tank Bigsby is coming for his touches.
Look for the Texans defense to take advantage of that chaos. Houston ran through Chicago’s porous offensive line for seven sacks in Week 2. It could have similar results with a Jaguars front that has already conceded a dozen sacks this season. Add in Lawrence’s historical fumbling issues (34 in 53 career games) and the Texans could come up with a few takeaways, as well.
Let’s try this again, shall we? Last week, I recommended the Packers defense because ... Will Levis. That worked to the tune of 21 fantasy points. Eight sacks, three takeaways and a defensive touchdown will do that for you. So far, Levis has been the gift that keeps on giving (the ball away).
Miami’s defense is adequate. The problem is an offense that will struggle to move the ball. The good news is that Tennessee isn’t sustaining a lot of long drives either. This game might be tough to watch. But if the Titans quarterback continues to donate possessions to the opposition, the Dolphins could be a deep dive streaming option.
