NFL QB Index, Week 1: Ranking all 32 starters entering 2024 season

2023 stats: 16 games | 67.2 pct | 4,183 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 27 pass TD | 14 INT | 389 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 5 fumbles

He's an alien of a passer who has managed to lead the Chiefs to consecutive Super Bowl victories while also working out the kinks in an attack that gradually became less explosive. Time capsules might give us proof of the football world doubting Kansas City's potential along the way, but we all know how the past two seasons ended: in indisputable triumph. Mahomes is a bad man with incredible physical gifts and a command of Andy Reid's offense, which should open back up in 2024, thanks to the addition of rookie receiver Xavier Worthy (and, when he returns from a preseason shoulder injury, free-agent signee Marquise Brown). I expect fireworks from this group, with much less consternation from the talking heads about the NFL's best franchise -- and Mahomes will be the reason.

2023 stats: 16 games | 67.2 pct | 3,678 pass yds | 8.0 ypa | 24 pass TD | 7 INT | 821 rush yds | 5 rush TD | 11 fumbles

In Year 1 under coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens finally found reliable success through the air, leading to a career-best season (in terms of passing yards and completion percentage) for Jackson. Oh, and Baltimore was able to lead the NFL in rushing yards -- again -- even though Jackson didn't break 1,000 yards on the ground. A white-hot finish to the regular season by Jackson (and the Ravens) made the QB a runaway winner in an MVP race that lacked certainty for much of 2023. The only surprise came in the AFC Championship Game, when Baltimore's offense suddenly lost its bearings and mustered just 10 points in a defeat to the Chiefs, reigniting the same narrative surrounding Jackson: He can't win the big one. Will this year be different?

2023 stats: 17 games | 66.5 pct | 4,306 pass yds | 7.4 ypa | 29 pass TD | 18 INT | 524 rush yds | 15 rush TD | 7 fumbles

The Bills likely saved their 2023 season by making a change at offensive coordinator in mid-November. No disrespect intended toward Ken Dorsey, but replacing him with Joe Brady might have been the most important decision Buffalo could have made for Allen's career in the immediate future. Under Brady, Buffalo revived its run game, taking some of the (immense) burden from Allen's shoulders, and unsurprisingly ran the table to reach the playoffs. If that stretch is to be trusted as a precursor of what's to come, Allen should be set up for an excellent season -- except it will be his first without Stefon Diggs since 2019. Will rookie Keon Coleman replace enough of Diggs' output to keep the Bills afloat? Or will Allen have to carry them once again? As talented as Allen is, the path back to the postseason will be smoother if Brady can figure out a post-Diggs balance.

2023 stats: 15 games | 63.9 pct | 4,108 pass yds | 8.2 ypa | 23 pass TD | 5 INT | 167 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 8 fumbles

Stroud's rookie season was nothing short of spectacular, serving as a feather in the cap of those pounding the table to play first-round quarterbacks immediately. But it also set expectations high entering 2024. Luckily for Stroud and Houston, the gang (offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins) is back for another run, with some new additions (Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon) who should help the Texans reach new heights offensively. The key piece, though, is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Sure, it might seem outrageous to place a guy with one year of experience this high in the rankings, but I stand by it. Stroud is special.

2023 stats: 10 games | 66.8 pct | 2,309 pass yds | 6.3 ypa | 15 pass TD | 6 INT | 88 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 2 fumbles

We all know the big sticking point with Burrow at this point: Can he stay healthy? When Burrow is at 100 percent, he's one of the NFL's best, a truly elite quarterback with a sky-high trajectory who has already shown he can lead the Bengals to the sport's greatest stage. We saw how quickly things turned for the better for Cincinnati last season when Burrow healed from his early-season calf issue and hit his stride, only to be upended by a season-ending wrist injury. If Burrow (who also missed significant time as a rookie with a knee injury) can put the injury bug behind him for good, he'll be in the top five for most of his career.

2023 stats: 17 games | 69.5 pct | 4,516 pass yds | 7.7 ypa | 36 pass TD | 9 INT | 242 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 4 fumbles

I still believe that somewhere, in a parallel universe, Prescott and the Cowboys never delivered that clunker of a loss in Buffalo in December. In that universe, Prescott then won NFL MVP, and Dallas maybe even pushed past the Divisional Round for the first time since the 1995 season. That's how good Prescott was in 2023, when he showed how well he can play if things are going right. At his best, he's a top-five quarterback capable of delivering on Dallas' potential. But the stakes are higher than ever in 2024, with neither Prescott nor his coach, Mike McCarthy, having any contractual security beyond this campaign. The pressure is on. We'll see if Prescott stands up to it -- or crumbles like he did on Super Wild Card Weekend last season.

2023 stats: 1 game | 0 pct | 0 pass yds | 0.0 ypa | 0 pass TD | 0 INT | 0 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Remember Rodgers? You know, the four-time MVP who was supposed to lead the Jets to the promised land last season? Yes, it's been a long time since we've seen him take the field, and we've heard plenty about how he knows his time is running out. But Rodgers' resume is undeniable, even with the QB at 40 years old. When I built these rankings, I factored in reputation and what I think we can expect in 2024. It is a make-or-break (Super Bowl or bust) season for the Jets, and they have a quarterback who knows what it takes to get the job done. 

2023 stats: 17 games | 64.2 pct | 4,159 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 32 pass TD | 11 INT | 247 rush yds | 4 rush TD | 9 fumbles

Admittedly, this ranking comes with a ton of projection, because Love has played like an upper-tier quarterback for just 10 games (roughly) of his NFL career so far. But are we not viewing C.J. Stroud in a similar lens? And shouldn't Love's blossoming down the back half of the 2023 season carry plenty of weight? In the first half, Love self-destructed far too often to be trustworthy -- and then, suddenly, he figured it out. By the time he was done dismantling the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend, we were all left with the same collective realization: It looks like somehow, the Packers have yet again replaced one franchise legend with another in the making. That's an unfair expectation to place on a 25-year-old, but he's shown he's worthy of the hype.

2023 stats: 13 games | 65.1 pct | 3,134 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 20 pass TD | 7 INT | 228 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 4 fumbles

Like Rodgers, Herbert was, perhaps, pushed out of our consciousness by an injury-hampered 2023. In fact, reviewing my initial rankings from last season is what reminded me to slot him into this place. But we shouldn't hold one down year against an immensely talented quarterback like Herbert, who now has bookend tackles to protect him and a new coach (and a much-needed change in culture) guiding him and his teammates. I'm not sure what this Chargers offense is going to look like right now, but I know what a healthy Herbert can do. And the trying 2023 campaign isn't going to sink his stock in my book.

2023 stats: 17 games | 65.4 pct | 3,858 pass yds | 7.2 ypa | 23 pass TD | 15 INT | 605 rush yds | 15 rush TD | 9 fumbles

Here's where I'm going to end up drawing the ire of Dolphins fans (again), who, honestly, have a case for their QB being in the top 10. But I feel confident in placing Hurts here for one key reason: We still don't know what on earth happened with the 2023 Eagles. I firmly believe that, by the end of 2024, we'll be able to reach one of two conclusions: The back half of last season can be tossed out as an anomaly, or it was the first sign of the Eagles' downfall under Nick Sirianni. At this point, I'll rely on prior evidence and predict they'll get it right this season, with Hurts returning to the elite tier he occupied through 2022 and into the first half of 2023. When empowered and composed, Hurts is a special quarterback whose play is worthy of the $51 million he's making per year. He's only 26 years old and has his whole career ahead of him -- and I, for one, can't wait to watch it unfold.

2023 stats: 17 games | 67.3 pct | 4,575 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 30 pass TD | 12 INT | 21 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 6 fumbles

Detroit has been good to Goff, who has posted two consecutive 4,400-yard passing seasons while graduating from bridge quarterback to face of the franchise (for at least the next few years). Gone are the days when we thought Goff wasn't worth the No. 1 overall pick the Rams spent on him in 2016. It's heartwarming to see a quarterback who dealt with sky-high expectations and operated in an intense spotlight from Day 1 finally find happiness in the form of on-field success, even if it didn't happen in Los Angeles. Keeping offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was a boon for Goff, as we've learned it takes a certain type of offensive coach to maximize Goff's strengths and weaknesses. It's time for Goff and the Lions to set new high-water marks for the franchise, and he's never been in a better situation to do so than now.

2023 stats: 17 games | 69.3 pct | 4,624 pass yds | 8.3 ypa | 29 pass TD | 14 INT | 74 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 13 fumbles

I know, I know, Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last year as the arm behind the league's most explosive passing offense. He was excellent -- there's no debating that. But it was also only one season, and while Tagovailoa cleared an important hurdle by starting every game for the first time in his career, now he has to do it again, both to prove he can and to get the Dolphins to where they want to go. So far, all that offensive output has only carried Miami to the postseason -- the team is still looking for its first playoff win since the 2000 season. It will be up to Tagovailoa and coach Mike McDaniel to deliver on the hype. I'll end with this offer to Dolphins fans: I'll move Tua up these rankings (as I did plenty last season) if he proves it with his play. I'm just not sold enough, based on the arm talent and quarterbacking traits we've seen from him thus far, to put him there yet.

2023 stats: 16 games | 69.4 pct | 4,280 pass yds | 9.6 ypa | 31 pass TD | 11 INT | 144 rush yds | 2 rush TD | 6 fumbles

This probably seems criminally low for Purdy, a quarterback who went from Mr. Irrelevant to NFC champion in a very short amount of time. Most QB compilations ahead of the season will probably include Purdy in the top 10, and that's reasonable. It's not that I don't believe in him; it's just a really tough group to crack at this stage, with players like Rodgers, Herbert, Burrow and other returning to action. Purdy delivered time and time again last season as the quarterback of the NFC's best team, but I'm not yet ready to give him most of the credit for San Francisco's success. He can change that with another strong season, of course, and will likely move up relatively quickly. For now, this is where he lands.

2023 stats: 15 games | 62.6 pct | 3,965 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 24 pass TD | 11 INT | 65 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Stafford's production last season was blissful for those hoping he'd be able to come back healthy and rediscover his talents after an injury-marred 2022. He did just that, finishing fifth in my final ranking after throwing for 4,332 yards and a 26:11 TD-to-INT ratio. I'm curious, though, if that was a last hurrah -- he was in Year 15, after all -- or if he can do it again in 2024. If Stafford and coach Sean McVay work together as well as they did last season, I'd expect more of the same, production-wise, which means Stafford will climb in these rankings. For now, though, he's a high-teens QB with tons of upside, even if we know he doesn't have another decade of football in him. 

2023 stats: 17 games | 64.3 pct | 4,044 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 28 pass TD | 10 INT | 163 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 8 fumbles

Mayfield's 2023 campaign was truly a joy to witness. He'd been through the ringer in his career, both physically and emotionally, and then we learned he and Tampa Bay were a perfect match. Mayfield threw for a career-high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, led the Buccaneers to a division title and smoked the Eagles on Super Wild Card Weekend, capping an unexpected renaissance. Now, though, I must wonder: Can he do it again? His offensive coordinator last season, Dave Canales, left to take the head coaching job in Carolina, and I'm not sold on the idea that he'll be able to just pick up where he left off with new OC Liam Coen. Consider me skeptical for now while hoping we see more of the fun we saw last season.

2023 stats: 8 games | 69.5 pct | 2,331 pass yds | 7.5 ypa | 18 pass TD | 5 INT | 25 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 7 fumbles

It seems like many folks forget that through eight games in 2023, Cousins was playing at a near-elite level for the Vikings, well enough to make a case for NFL MVP. Then an Achilles tear abruptly ended his season. Cousins is now being paid $45 million per year to be the new offensive leader of the Falcons, who also spent a first-round pick on star Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. No, I'm not about to analyze that decision in this space, because it doesn't matter -- unless Cousins isn't physically capable of playing at a high level. That's the key detail of which we're uncertain at this time, which is why I place him 16th. He's better than the Dalton Line, but I can't yet bank on the 36-year-old simply resuming his career seamlessly, even if he is in an admittedly better situation.

2023 stats: 16 games | 65.6 pct | 4,016 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 21 pass TD | 14 INT | 339 rush yds | 4 rush TD | 12 fumbles

A season filled with near-misses and underwhelming results has Lawrence opening 2024 at No. 17. While we've seen plenty to think Lawrence should be an upper-tier quarterback, he still hasn't performed consistently enough to make me invest all of my stock in him. This is a big year for coach Doug Pederson. It would also be a big year for Lawrence, if the Jaguars didn't feel it was necessary to pay him in June. To me, he's in that gray area, where his team seems to believe strongly enough that he's their guy, even though there's not an overwhelming amount of on-field evidence to support that status. Lawrence can change that -- and his ranking here -- with a stellar 2024 season.

2023 stats: 8 games | 65.7 pct | 1,799 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 10 pass TD | 5 INT | 244 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 7 fumbles

The Cardinals became a fun watch in the back half of the 2023 season because of Murray, the small-but-electrifying quarterback who quickly proved the importance of the quarterback position with his performance. In eight games, Murray averaged 224.9 passing yards, ran for another 244 yards (and three touchdowns) and led the Cardinals to a 3-5 mark, all while returning from an ACL tear. Now, he has Marvin Harrison Jr. at his disposal. I'm not saying the Cardinals are a legitimate contender, but I will guarantee they'll be worth watching, if for no reason other than the fact Murray and Harrison will be sharing a field.

2023 stats: 15 games | 64.7 pct | 3,624 pass yds | 7.3 ypa | 20 pass TD | 9 INT | 155 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 5 fumbles

Smith's magical 2022 season felt like a distant memory in 2023, when he battled through injury and had the unenviable task of trying to keep the Seahawks competitive despite the presence of a defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed. It felt like an unfortunate fall back to earth for Smith, who earned the trust of the organization with a 4,282-yard, 30-touchdown season in 2022, then followed up with a season that wasn't much worse statistically but surely wasn't as fun. Perhaps the departure of Dave Canales (his position coach in '22) had something to do with it; maybe it was just a product of a franchise speeding toward a change in leadership. Regardless, Smith doesn't have the benefit of the doubt in 2024 and will surely need to deliver with a team that is talented enough on offense to make noise if he wants to secure his future in Seattle beyond this season.

2023 stats: 17 games | 68.4 pct | 3,878 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 25 pass TD | 8 INT | 40 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 7 fumbles

If you paid attention to the Saints' preseason, you might know their fans are already trying to find a replacement for Carr (their August heartthrob was Spencer Rattler). I'll put this simply: The Saints were a really tough watch for much of 2023. That wasn't entirely Carr's fault, but he certainly shared in some of the blame. Dennis Allen managed to hang onto his job, but the pressure is on for everyone this season, and Carr no longer has room for error. I'm hoping he doesn't spend half of the season ignoring Chris Olave (as he did in 2023), but I'm also not foolish enough to believe an offseason cured the Saints of their ills.

2023 stats: 4 games | 59.5 pct | 577 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 3 pass TD | 1 INT | 136 rush yds | 4 rush TD | 3 fumbles

We saw one month of Richardson before injury ended his rookie season. The results were mixed but exciting: Richardson looked a whole lot like Cam Newton did in Carolina a decade ago, especially when coach Shane Steichen decided to use Richardson's athleticism to the Colts' advantage. But we need a greater sample size before we can start raising expectations, and the same accuracy issues that concerned me about Richardson when he entered the NFL out of Florida persist, at least through preseason action. We'll see if Richardson can prove his shoulder problem is behind him, because if he can, Colts games should be thrilling. If he can't, well ... let's not go to that dark place.

2023 stats: 9 games | 58.4 pct | 1,808 pass yds | 7.1 ypa | 8 pass TD | 4 INT | 57 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 7 fumbles

I have to give Levis a ton of credit, because he certainly exceeded my low expectations for him as a rookie last season. That's not to say it was anything near perfect, of course; Levis finished with a 3-6 mark as a starter, completed less than 59 percent of his passes and posted a passer rating of 84.2. But he showed more fight and grit in his play than I've seen from the average rookie quarterback, especially one playing for a team in transition. I'm intrigued to see what new coach Brian Callahan can do with the second-year pro, because he might have one of the wider ranges of potential outcomes entering 2024. That unknown is also why he lands 22nd: We just don't know enough right now.

2023 stats: 3 games | 78.3 pct | 224 pass yds | 9.7 ypa | 3 pass TD | 0 INT | 19 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 0 fumbles

Brissett is back in the place where his NFL career began, and things look vastly different now. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and most everyone else are gone, and the expectations for the Patriots are significantly lower than they were back in 2016. But Brissett knows his role: He's there to lead New England on a few scoring drives each week -- oh, and to keep the seat warm for Drake Maye. I don't expect Brissett to spend the whole season as the starter; in fact, his stint might not even last a full month. That's not his fault, but merely a product of circumstances for a team in transition. 

2023 stats: 15 games | 66.4 pct | 3,070 pass yds | 6.9 ypa | 26 pass TD | 8 INT | 341 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 10 fumbles

Wilson's flop in Denver was so dramatic, the Broncos willingly ate a massive amount of dead money just to move on from him. Pittsburgh happily scooped him up at a much cheaper rate, but so far, the results aren't very promising. People in Pittsburgh are stuck between Wilson and backup Justin Fields while knowing neither has the highest ceiling, which speaks more to where Wilson is at this stage in his career. Is he washed up? Or was the situation in Denver the cause of his struggles? I lean toward the former, but I'll let this situation -- which could become one of the more fascinating ones in the NFL -- play out first.

2023 stats: 6 games | 61.4 pct | 1,115 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 7 pass TD | 4 INT | 142 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 5 fumbles

The vibes are eerie in Cleveland right now regarding Watson, who didn't play in the preseason and isn't fueling many sunny narratives entering Week 1. It doesn't help that 2024 is yet another season that is dependent on the same question we've been asking for some time: What do the Browns have in Watson? Frankly, nobody knows. Watson appeared to be turning a corner when he led the Browns to a comeback win over Baltimore in Week 10 last season, then disappeared to injured reserve because of a season-ending shoulder injury, and those typically don't bode well for quarterbacks. Either Watson will prove doubters wrong, or he'll put the Browns in an uncomfortable (and, unfortunately, familiar) situation regarding the position entering 2025.

2023 stats: 16 games | 62.2 pct | 3,305 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 15 pass TD | 9 INT | 100 rush yds | 3 rush TD | 8 fumbles

Antonio Pierce's tone when announcing his starter is all you needed to hear to understand the state of the Raiders' situation under center right now. Pierce challenged Minshew and second-year passer Aidan O'Connell to earn the job in a preseason game, then watched them both stumble through the Saturday night affair in Las Vegas. It was almost as if Pierce said, "Well, this is the best we've got," when choosing Minshew. That isn't to say Minshew isn't a solid veteran, because he proved he was last season in Indianapolis, keeping the Colts afloat without hurting them -- he was a plus backup. But that's essentially his ceiling, leaving me feeling uncomfortable about the entire situation, with fans in Las Vegas hoping their defense will keep them competitive. Not great!

2023 stats: 10 games | 60.9 pct | 297 pass yds | 6.5 ypa | 2 pass TD | 1 INT | 15 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 3 fumbles

Darnold is another quarterback we don't have pinned down right now. He started one game last season for the 49ers (a meaningless Week 18 contest), completed 60.9 percent of his passes and threw two touchdown passes for the season, then earned himself a spot elsewhere. J.J. McCarthy might have won this job had he not suffered a season-ending meniscus injury, but now, it's Darnold's to lose. Some folks are making grand predictions for Darnold as this year's renaissance quarterback, but I'm not sold. I've seen too much of Darnold (and his imaginary ghosts) to think a year in San Francisco just fixed him. It would be a fun story, though, and the Vikings don't have a better option right now, so why not see where it goes?

As is customary, we've reached the rookie quarterbacks portion of the ranking; I can't justify placing someone who's never played an NFL regular-season game any higher than this bottom section. Having said that, Williams' preseason was fun to watch. I enjoyed his poise in the pocket, freakish athleticism and creative playmaking. I also know those traits were on display against largely vanilla preseason defenses. The regular season will be a different beast, but Williams is built for it. We'll see if he's strong enough to carry the weight of a franchise through his first season, too.

Nix probably had one of the better preseasons you'll see from a rookie battling for a job. He was sharp, confident, poised and efficient, and by the time he'd wrapped up his final preseason action, it was clear who Sean Payton was going to choose as his starter. Nix represents the future of the Broncos under Payton, who could prove to all of us that all he needed to find success in the Mile High City was his preferred quarterback (and not Russell Wilson). That's a lot to ask of a rookie, though, so I'll wait for Nix to prove it first.

Count Daniels with Williams and Nix as those who put together impressive preseason performances, albeit with limited snaps. Daniels looked very comfortable operating an NFL offense and cruised to the starting job in Washington, where he'll take over as the face of the future under new coach Dan Quinn. It likely won't be without challenges, but the physical traits and abilities that powered Daniels to the Heisman Trophy at LSU seem to have carried over to the NFL. He's also arriving with a ton of playing experience after beginning his college career as a freshman at Arizona State in 2019. We'll see if he can thrive at the NFL level quicker than the average rookie.

2023 stats: 16 games | 59.8 pct | 2,877 pass yds | 5.5 ypa | 11 pass TD | 10 INT | 253 rush yds | 0 rush TD | 11 fumbles

Yes, Young isn't a rookie, but he might as well be when considering the trainwreck that was Carolina's 2023 season. The Panthers did the former No. 1 overall pick zero favors and mismanaged the entire situation so poorly, I'm willing to toss it out entirely. This is a fresh start for Young, upon which he'll embark with a much more capable, quarterback-friendly coach in Dave Canales, who still has to prove himself as a head coach. Don't expect an overnight success, but also don't be surprised if Canales gets Young back on track. The Panthers' future depends on it.

2023 stats: 6 games | 67.5 pct | 909 pass yds | 5.7 ypa | 2 pass TD | 6 INT | 206 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 4 fumbles

Injuries ended Jones' first season as a $40 million quarterback before it really got going, and he's returned to a situation that certainly isn't ideal. He also didn't look comfortable in his limited preseason action. If you need a barometer for his current reputation, just watch Jets corner Sauce Gardner stumble through his response when asked for his thoughts on Jones' performance during their joint practices. That matches my confidence in Jones at this point. I'd love to be proven wrong.