NFL Photos | NFL Photography Gallery | NFL.com
Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape 2020 season
In Week 1's Next Gen Stats photo essay, NFL Research's Joseph Ferraiola dissects the numbers behind some of the most intriguing storylines heading into the 2020 season.
![Aaron Donald continued to dominate opposing offensive lines in 2019. The two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year led interior defensive linemen with 69 QB pressures (13.5% pressure rate, highest among interior DL, min. 200 pass rushes) and 12.5 sacks last season due to his explosiveness when getting off the ball. Donald's average pass-rush get-off time -- 0.88 seconds -- was tied for the fastest among interior defensive linemen with the Chiefs' Chris Jones.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/vqkzwo5f3og33xej1ov8.jpg)
Aaron Donald continued to dominate opposing offensive lines in 2019. The two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year led interior defensive linemen with 69 QB pressures (13.5% pressure rate, highest among interior DL, min. 200 pass rushes) and 12.5 sacks last season due to his explosiveness when getting off the ball. Donald's average pass-rush get-off time -- 0.88 seconds -- was tied for the fastest among interior defensive linemen with the Chiefs' Chris Jones.
![Ninety-seven of Michael Thomas' record-breaking 149 receptions came within 0-to-9 air yards of the line of scrimmage in 2019. That's 35 more receptions in the short area of the field than any other player. With the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model, we've discovered that a considerable amount of Thomas' production in the short area came on slant routes. Thomas caught 29 of 33 targets for 299 receiving yards and three touchdowns when running slants (most receptions, yards, tied for most TDs). Additionally, Thomas led the NFL with 162 yards after the catch on slant routes, in part due to him creating 2.4 yards of separation on such targets last season.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/lznqxl5bqnhmgvpcqbek.jpg)
Ninety-seven of Michael Thomas' record-breaking 149 receptions came within 0-to-9 air yards of the line of scrimmage in 2019. That's 35 more receptions in the short area of the field than any other player. With the Next Gen Stats Route Recognition Model, we've discovered that a considerable amount of Thomas' production in the short area came on slant routes. Thomas caught 29 of 33 targets for 299 receiving yards and three touchdowns when running slants (most receptions, yards, tied for most TDs). Additionally, Thomas led the NFL with 162 yards after the catch on slant routes, in part due to him creating 2.4 yards of separation on such targets last season.
![Quarterbacks in Bruce Arians' offense have not ranked outside the top five in air yards per attempt since Next Gen Stats began tracking such information in 2016. Carson Palmer finished third in 2016 (10.1 air yards per attempt) and fourth in '17 (9.4), while Jameis Winston ranked second in 2019 (10.5). (Arians did not coach in 2018.) Tom Brady averaged just 7.6 air yards per attempt in 2019 (eighth-fewest in NFL) and hasn't averaged more than 9.0 air yards per attempt in a season since 2017. But Brady was effective in limited attempts when going deep last season, posting seven touchdowns against two interceptions with a 107.6 passer rating on such attempts (seventh-highest passer rating in NFL). Now with a better wide receiver group in Tampa Bay than he had in New England in recent seasons, Brady may be more willing to air it out in 2020.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/ibcmhi7kaggod5xejkgl.jpg)
Quarterbacks in Bruce Arians' offense have not ranked outside the top five in air yards per attempt since Next Gen Stats began tracking such information in 2016. Carson Palmer finished third in 2016 (10.1 air yards per attempt) and fourth in '17 (9.4), while Jameis Winston ranked second in 2019 (10.5). (Arians did not coach in 2018.) Tom Brady averaged just 7.6 air yards per attempt in 2019 (eighth-fewest in NFL) and hasn't averaged more than 9.0 air yards per attempt in a season since 2017. But Brady was effective in limited attempts when going deep last season, posting seven touchdowns against two interceptions with a 107.6 passer rating on such attempts (seventh-highest passer rating in NFL). Now with a better wide receiver group in Tampa Bay than he had in New England in recent seasons, Brady may be more willing to air it out in 2020.
![After a very good rookie season in 2018 followed by a mediocre one in 2019, Baker Mayfield is at a pivotal point in his career entering Year 3. Much of his future depends on how well he meshes with Kevin Stefanski, his fourth head coach in three seasons. Stefanski, who served as the Vikings' offensive coordinator last season, employs a heavy run and play-action scheme (MIN: ran or used play-action on 63.6% of plays in 2019, third-highest in NFL) that routinely utilizes multiple-TE personnel groupings (MIN: used 2+ TE on 56.7% of plays, highest in NFL). Kirk Cousins thrived using play-action in 2019, especially play-action rollouts to the left (13.6 yards per attempt, most in NFL, min. 5 att) playing off the Vikings' outside-zone concept (MIN: 70.0 outside run percentage in 2019, highest in NFL) -- a staple of the Shanahan coaching tree. The scheme change should benefit Mayfield in 2020, as he averages 8.9 yards per attempt on play-action passes compared to 6.6 yards per attempt without play-action.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/aikzq2xcjpgbr3sifds9.jpg)
After a very good rookie season in 2018 followed by a mediocre one in 2019, Baker Mayfield is at a pivotal point in his career entering Year 3. Much of his future depends on how well he meshes with Kevin Stefanski, his fourth head coach in three seasons. Stefanski, who served as the Vikings' offensive coordinator last season, employs a heavy run and play-action scheme (MIN: ran or used play-action on 63.6% of plays in 2019, third-highest in NFL) that routinely utilizes multiple-TE personnel groupings (MIN: used 2+ TE on 56.7% of plays, highest in NFL). Kirk Cousins thrived using play-action in 2019, especially play-action rollouts to the left (13.6 yards per attempt, most in NFL, min. 5 att) playing off the Vikings' outside-zone concept (MIN: 70.0 outside run percentage in 2019, highest in NFL) -- a staple of the Shanahan coaching tree. The scheme change should benefit Mayfield in 2020, as he averages 8.9 yards per attempt on play-action passes compared to 6.6 yards per attempt without play-action.
![No team passed more than Mike McCarthy's Packers did in his final five seasons as Green Bay's head coach (65.4% of offensive plays). McCarthy now teams up in Dallas with second-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose play calling in 2019 allowed Dak Prescott to average the most air yards per attempt of his young career and the sixth-highest among qualified QBs (9.3 air yards per attempt). Those two aggressive tendencies are a recipe for success, as Prescott and his WR1 (Amari Cooper) excel on downfield attempts. Prescott completed 58.6 percent of passes traveling 10-plus air yards (fourth in NFL) for an average of 13.0 yards per attempt on such throws. Meanwhile, Cooper caught 57.1% of his deep targets (second-highest in NFL, min. 15 deep targets), +24.6% above expectation (highest in NFL, min. 15 deep targets) a season ago.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/g11joqegmvfgggzrjtor.jpg)
No team passed more than Mike McCarthy's Packers did in his final five seasons as Green Bay's head coach (65.4% of offensive plays). McCarthy now teams up in Dallas with second-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, whose play calling in 2019 allowed Dak Prescott to average the most air yards per attempt of his young career and the sixth-highest among qualified QBs (9.3 air yards per attempt). Those two aggressive tendencies are a recipe for success, as Prescott and his WR1 (Amari Cooper) excel on downfield attempts. Prescott completed 58.6 percent of passes traveling 10-plus air yards (fourth in NFL) for an average of 13.0 yards per attempt on such throws. Meanwhile, Cooper caught 57.1% of his deep targets (second-highest in NFL, min. 15 deep targets), +24.6% above expectation (highest in NFL, min. 15 deep targets) a season ago.
![Josh Allen struggled to complete deep passes to receivers not named John Brown in 2019. Allen completed 10 of 26 deep attempts (38.5%) to Brown, while connecting on just four of his 37 deep attempts (10.8%) to all other receivers. This caused Allen to have the lowest completion percentage on deep passes (22.2%) in the NFL last season. The Bills hope that the acquisition of Stefon Diggs will increase Allen's deep completion percentage in 2020 and beyond. Diggs led the NFL in receptions (15), receiving yards (624) and reception percentage (57.7%, min. 15 deep targets) and was tied for the lead with five TDs (Kenny Golladay) on deep targets.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/kh4tnouh0fzdksgueqrf.jpg)
Josh Allen struggled to complete deep passes to receivers not named John Brown in 2019. Allen completed 10 of 26 deep attempts (38.5%) to Brown, while connecting on just four of his 37 deep attempts (10.8%) to all other receivers. This caused Allen to have the lowest completion percentage on deep passes (22.2%) in the NFL last season. The Bills hope that the acquisition of Stefon Diggs will increase Allen's deep completion percentage in 2020 and beyond. Diggs led the NFL in receptions (15), receiving yards (624) and reception percentage (57.7%, min. 15 deep targets) and was tied for the lead with five TDs (Kenny Golladay) on deep targets.
![In July, we debuted the Next Gen Stats Expected Rushing Yards Model, explaining how the model works and displaying which running backs best outperformed their expected yards per attempt. Both Josh Jacobs (+0.81 yards per rush over expected) and Christian McCaffrey (+0.74 yards per rush over expected) made the top five at third and fourth, respectively. Jacobs, in particular, was expected to gain 3.9 yards per rush but had an actual yards per rush of 4.8. While McCaffrey gained an actual 4.8 yards per rush when expected to gain just 4.1. Both running backs will look to outperform their yards per rush once again when they take the field against each other in Week 1.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/tciamq0uqll4fqimdcni.jpg)
In July, we debuted the Next Gen Stats Expected Rushing Yards Model, explaining how the model works and displaying which running backs best outperformed their expected yards per attempt. Both Josh Jacobs (+0.81 yards per rush over expected) and Christian McCaffrey (+0.74 yards per rush over expected) made the top five at third and fourth, respectively. Jacobs, in particular, was expected to gain 3.9 yards per rush but had an actual yards per rush of 4.8. While McCaffrey gained an actual 4.8 yards per rush when expected to gain just 4.1. Both running backs will look to outperform their yards per rush once again when they take the field against each other in Week 1.