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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape Week 1
Want to see the numbers behind the numbers? Next Gen Stats researcher Matt Reinhart dives into a fresh batch of Next Gen Stats and identifies figures that are helping to shape the NFL narrative entering Week 1 of the 2019 season.
![The 100th NFL season kicks off Thursday at Soldier Field with the 199th meeting between two legendary franchises, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. The Bears and head coach Matt Nagy are coming off a 12-4 season, but lost defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who took the head-coaching job in Denver in the offseason. New DC Chuck Pagano hopes to continue the Bears' defensive dominance from last season, when they recaptured some of the magic of the legendary 1985 squad. The 2018 Bears made a habit of shutting down opposing quarterbacks, ranking among the league's top three defenses in passer rating allowed when the QB was under pressure (33.2 passer rating allowed), on deep attempts (46.6), and when blitzing (70.5).](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/oogspyewszlmemumurcw.jpg)
The 100th NFL season kicks off Thursday at Soldier Field with the 199th meeting between two legendary franchises, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. The Bears and head coach Matt Nagy are coming off a 12-4 season, but lost defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who took the head-coaching job in Denver in the offseason. New DC Chuck Pagano hopes to continue the Bears' defensive dominance from last season, when they recaptured some of the magic of the legendary 1985 squad. The 2018 Bears made a habit of shutting down opposing quarterbacks, ranking among the league's top three defenses in passer rating allowed when the QB was under pressure (33.2 passer rating allowed), on deep attempts (46.6), and when blitzing (70.5).
![One of the many exciting matchups to watch in the Steelers-Patriots "Sunday Night Football" opener is T.J. Watt and the Steelers' aggressive pass rush vs. the Patriots' revamped offensive line and its ability to keep Tom Brady clean in the pocket. Brady was pressured at the lowest rate in the NFL last season, on just 17.4% of his dropbacks, but the Patriots lost offensive tackle Trent Brown to the Raiders in free agency and starting center David Andrews' season was over before it started due to a blood clot in his lungs. The Steelers employed one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the NFL last season, and were the only team to rank in the top five in blitz rate, pressure rate, and sack rate. The Steelers also pressured Brady on 11 of his 37 dropbacks in their Week 15 matchup last season, the most pressures Brady faced in a single game all season.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/vfj0t7uobqq6lulgrcjr.jpg)
One of the many exciting matchups to watch in the Steelers-Patriots "Sunday Night Football" opener is T.J. Watt and the Steelers' aggressive pass rush vs. the Patriots' revamped offensive line and its ability to keep Tom Brady clean in the pocket. Brady was pressured at the lowest rate in the NFL last season, on just 17.4% of his dropbacks, but the Patriots lost offensive tackle Trent Brown to the Raiders in free agency and starting center David Andrews' season was over before it started due to a blood clot in his lungs. The Steelers employed one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the NFL last season, and were the only team to rank in the top five in blitz rate, pressure rate, and sack rate. The Steelers also pressured Brady on 11 of his 37 dropbacks in their Week 15 matchup last season, the most pressures Brady faced in a single game all season.
![The Chiefs enter the 2019 season with the most explosive offense in the NFL, featuring reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, and a stable of quality running backs. The Jaguars upgraded the QB position this offseason with the signing of Nick Foles, and are hoping to pair an improved offense with an already stout defense led by their disruptive defensive line and playmaker Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey and Co. will have their hands full facing off against the Chiefs' offense, but they might have what it takes to limit Kansas City's potent attack. Mahomes had 13 deep (20-plus air yards) passing TDs last season, but the Jaguars have allowed an average of just 13 deep completions over the last two seasons (10 in 2017, 16 in 2018). In fact, the Jaguars are one of two teams that have held their opponents to under 200 pass yards per game in each of the last two seasons. The Chiefs' visit to Jacksonville has all the makings of a sneaky good matchup in Week 1.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/zvcrg0c7n7nwuy8e4zai.jpg)
The Chiefs enter the 2019 season with the most explosive offense in the NFL, featuring reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, and a stable of quality running backs. The Jaguars upgraded the QB position this offseason with the signing of Nick Foles, and are hoping to pair an improved offense with an already stout defense led by their disruptive defensive line and playmaker Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey and Co. will have their hands full facing off against the Chiefs' offense, but they might have what it takes to limit Kansas City's potent attack. Mahomes had 13 deep (20-plus air yards) passing TDs last season, but the Jaguars have allowed an average of just 13 deep completions over the last two seasons (10 in 2017, 16 in 2018). In fact, the Jaguars are one of two teams that have held their opponents to under 200 pass yards per game in each of the last two seasons. The Chiefs' visit to Jacksonville has all the makings of a sneaky good matchup in Week 1.
![Are expectations too high for the Browns in 2019? With a full season of Baker Mayfield as the QB1, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry at WR, and the play-calling of head coach Freddie Kitchens, the Browns are a hot pick to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002 (longest playoff drought in the NFL). After Kitchens took over as interim offensive coordinator in Week 9 last season, the Browns transformed into a dangerous downfield passing attack. Mayfield thrived in Kitchens' system, leading the NFL in a variety of deep passing (20-plus air yards) categories over Weeks 9-17 last season, including completion percentage (55.9), yards per attempt (19.3), and passing TDs (seven). Mayfield's newest target, OBJ, has just three deep receiving TDs since 2016 (T-44th in the NFL)! Up first for Cleveland: A visit from the Titans, who ranked third in scoring defense last season.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/kfrbydr7votmra4ms9gp.jpg)
Are expectations too high for the Browns in 2019? With a full season of Baker Mayfield as the QB1, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry at WR, and the play-calling of head coach Freddie Kitchens, the Browns are a hot pick to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002 (longest playoff drought in the NFL). After Kitchens took over as interim offensive coordinator in Week 9 last season, the Browns transformed into a dangerous downfield passing attack. Mayfield thrived in Kitchens' system, leading the NFL in a variety of deep passing (20-plus air yards) categories over Weeks 9-17 last season, including completion percentage (55.9), yards per attempt (19.3), and passing TDs (seven). Mayfield's newest target, OBJ, has just three deep receiving TDs since 2016 (T-44th in the NFL)! Up first for Cleveland: A visit from the Titans, who ranked third in scoring defense last season.
![While the headliners are at quarterback (Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan), the pass rushers could take center stage in the Falcons-Vikings matchup in Minneapolis. Both teams struggled to protect their franchise QBs last season, a big reason why they missed the playoffs after advancing to the postseason in 2017. Cousins was pressured on 217 dropbacks last season, the most pressures faced by any QB in the NFL. Matty Ice wasn't far behind Cousins, facing pressure on 203 dropbacks. Protecting the QB was an offseason priority for both teams, as evidenced by their selecting offensive linemen in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft (ATL: Guard Chris Lindstrom from Boston College and tackle Kaleb McGary from Washington; MIN: Center Garrett Bradbury from N.C. State). Fans in Atlanta and Minneapolis are hoping the additions are enough to keep their quarterbacks upright.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/hzwzn4awertqmx0bnpta.jpg)
While the headliners are at quarterback (Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan), the pass rushers could take center stage in the Falcons-Vikings matchup in Minneapolis. Both teams struggled to protect their franchise QBs last season, a big reason why they missed the playoffs after advancing to the postseason in 2017. Cousins was pressured on 217 dropbacks last season, the most pressures faced by any QB in the NFL. Matty Ice wasn't far behind Cousins, facing pressure on 203 dropbacks. Protecting the QB was an offseason priority for both teams, as evidenced by their selecting offensive linemen in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft (ATL: Guard Chris Lindstrom from Boston College and tackle Kaleb McGary from Washington; MIN: Center Garrett Bradbury from N.C. State). Fans in Atlanta and Minneapolis are hoping the additions are enough to keep their quarterbacks upright.
![The midseason acquisition of Amari Cooper had a profound impact on Dak Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys' offense in 2018. With Cooper in the mix, Prescott's receivers saw a drastic increase in average target separation (Weeks 1-8: 2.9, Weeks 9-17: 3.7) resulting in a decrease in tight-window throw percentage (Weeks 1-8: 23.3, Weeks 9-17: 14.1). Because of the Cowboys' jump from 30th to fourth in average target separation, Prescott's completion percentage rocketed from 62.1 in Weeks 1-8 to 71.3 in Weeks 9-17. In addition to their young QB's much-improved play, Cooper's impact also translated to the win column as the Cowboys went 7-2 to close out the regular season, capturing the NFC East crown. Dallas hopes the trend will continue into the 2019 campaign, beginning with its matchup against the Giants.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/ewz4pwonddafktai7pfw.jpg)
The midseason acquisition of Amari Cooper had a profound impact on Dak Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys' offense in 2018. With Cooper in the mix, Prescott's receivers saw a drastic increase in average target separation (Weeks 1-8: 2.9, Weeks 9-17: 3.7) resulting in a decrease in tight-window throw percentage (Weeks 1-8: 23.3, Weeks 9-17: 14.1). Because of the Cowboys' jump from 30th to fourth in average target separation, Prescott's completion percentage rocketed from 62.1 in Weeks 1-8 to 71.3 in Weeks 9-17. In addition to their young QB's much-improved play, Cooper's impact also translated to the win column as the Cowboys went 7-2 to close out the regular season, capturing the NFC East crown. Dallas hopes the trend will continue into the 2019 campaign, beginning with its matchup against the Giants.
![Deshaun Watson's ability to extend plays with his legs has given him the longest average time to throw (3.04 seconds) among all qualifying QBs since entering the league in 2017. But that same aggressive tendency has made his performance under pressure fall on the wrong side of variance, and he's been pressured often in his career (31.5%, fifth-highest in NFL). Watson has the fifth-worst yards per attempt (5.8) and also ranks in the bottom five in completion percentage and passer rating when under pressure since '17. The good news is that performance when not under pressure is more predictive of future performance overall, and Watson has excelled when he is kept clean. He ranks second in yards per attempt (9.1) and in the top five in completion percentage and passer rating when not under pressure. It's up to his O-line to protect him against the Saints in Week 1.](https://static.www.nfl.com/image/private/t_new_photo_album/t_lazy/f_auto/league/dkfdqygg4gqdtirfd8bh.jpg)
Deshaun Watson's ability to extend plays with his legs has given him the longest average time to throw (3.04 seconds) among all qualifying QBs since entering the league in 2017. But that same aggressive tendency has made his performance under pressure fall on the wrong side of variance, and he's been pressured often in his career (31.5%, fifth-highest in NFL). Watson has the fifth-worst yards per attempt (5.8) and also ranks in the bottom five in completion percentage and passer rating when under pressure since '17. The good news is that performance when not under pressure is more predictive of future performance overall, and Watson has excelled when he is kept clean. He ranks second in yards per attempt (9.1) and in the top five in completion percentage and passer rating when not under pressure. It's up to his O-line to protect him against the Saints in Week 1.