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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape Week 4
Want to see the numbers behind the numbers? NFL Research's Matt Reinhart dives into a fresh batch of Next Gen Stats and identifies figures that are helping to shape the NFL narrative entering Week 4 of the 2019 season.

Two of the NFL's most dynamic QBs square off in an exciting AFC North battle this Sunday in Baltimore. Last season, Baker Mayfield averaged 359 passing yards in his two starts against Baltimore, but matched his four TD passes with four INTs in those games. Lamar Jackson was Joe Flacco's backup in the first Cleveland game last year, but added two rushing TDs to give Baltimore a 26-24 win over the Browns in Week 17, clinching a playoff berth. The players have trended in opposite directions since the start of this season, though, with Jackson earning much of the attention that Mayfield was getting coming into 2019. Some of the disparity in production can be attributed to each player's decision-making, as Mayfield has thrown into double coverage on 6.4% of his attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL. So far this year, Jackson has as many throws into double coverage as he has interceptions: zero.

Since the arrival of Sean McVay in Los Angeles, offenses have taken center stage in most Rams games. But in the Week 4 matchup between the Buccaneers and Rams, two ferocious pass rushes might grab the spotlight. The Tampa Bay pass rush is led by offseason acquisition Shaquil Barrett, who has been nothing short of dominant in 2019. Barrett leads the NFL with 8 sacks and 21 QB pressures, after racking up 14 pressures in the Week 3 matchup with Daniel Jones and the Giants (seconnd-most in a game since 2016). Barrett also forced two Jones turnovers as a result of his pressures in Week 3. (Side note: Barrett's old team, Denver, has zero sacks and 13 pressures in 2019 as a team.) The Rams have a more balanced attack defensively, and are the only team in the NFL with three players (Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler, Clay Matthews) with 10 or more QB pressures on the season. While the QBs will be on display, the guys chasing them might get the last laugh Sunday in La La Land.

One of the most underrated matchups in Week 4 is a battle of two undefeated teams, as Patrick Mahomes and the 3-0 Chiefs will visit Ford Field to take on an upstart 2-0-1 Lions squad led by head coach Matt Patricia and his better-than-expected defense. The Chiefs have been nearly unstoppable again this season, as Mahomes leads the NFL in deep passing yards (436), deep TDs (6), and deep completions (11). The Lions hope to counter the Chiefs with a cohesive defensive back group, as their top five DBs have all played 85% or more of the Lions' snaps and have combined to allow a 35.6 passer rating on deep attempts this season. The Lions' first three opponents have avoided targeting Quandre Diggs altogether. Diggs, who aligns at deep safety 63% of the time, has been targeted on just 6 of his 122 coverage snaps (4.9%), the sixth-lowest rate among all defensive backs in the NFL. It will certainly take a collective team effort to slow down the Chiefs in Week 4.

With the release of Antonio Brown last week, along with news that Julian Edelman is dealing with a rib injury, Tom Brady and the Patriots are counting on some other receivers to step up and keep the offense moving. Phillip Dorsett is certainly making a case for an expanded role, as the former first-round pick leads the Pats with three receiving TDs, and recently snapped a streak of 26 straight targets caught, the second-longest such streak since 2009 (Michael Thomas had 27 straight in 2018). According to the Next Gen Stats Completion Probability model, which measures a pass' difficulty based on target-receiver location and the condition of the QB at the pass, Dorsett had a 0.002% chance of hauling in those 26 straight targets. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Brady target Dorsett more going forward.

The 2019 NFL season has seen 40 different QBs start a game (the most different starting QBs through Week 3 since 1950), and the most dynamic and exciting addition might be Jaguars rookie QB Gardner Minshew. The Jaguars have been relatively conservative with the mustachioed, headband-wearing sixth-round pick from Washington State, as Minshew is averaging just 6.3 air yards per attempt and has thrown behind the line of scrimmage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (26.1% of attempts). However, the deeper the pass attempt, the more successful Minshew has been. Minshew's passer rating and yards per attempt increase at every level of the defense, with Minshew's highest passer rating coming on deep (20-plus air yards) pass attempts: 146.8. The Denver defense has allowed a 129.2 passer rating on deep targets so far in 2019 (tied for fifth highest in the NFL), so look for Minshew to go deep more often starting in Week 4.

First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has changed the Cowboys' approach through the air, increasing their 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE) usage, and allowing Dak Prescott to throw further downfield, but he's also made an impact on the ground. Dallas has run into fewer stacked boxes (8 or more defenders in the box) this season and increased its light box (6 or fewer defenders in the box) rush percentage (2018: 35.2; 2019: 49.0). The Cowboys are averaging 1.2 more yards per rush vs. light boxes this season than last, the fourth-largest increase in that span (2018: 5.2; 2019: 6.4). Ezekiel Elliott has flourished against light boxes, rushing for 180 yards with 7 rushes of 10-plus rush yards (both most in the NFL). The change in rushing approach bodes well for the Cowboys' backfield moving forward, as Elliott and his rookie teammate, Tony Pollard, did not run into a stacked box in Week 3 vs. Miami (ran into stacked boxes on 20.8% of rushes in Weeks 1-2).

Daniel Jones defied expectations in the first start of his NFL career, spearheading an incredible 18-point comeback and injecting life into an anemic Giants offense. "Danny Dash" brought a new dimension to the Giants' QB position with his athleticism, scrambling for first downs and touchdowns, and opening up coach Pat Shurmur's playbook to whip out a zone read keeper on his first TD. Jones reached a max speed over 19 mph on 3 of his 4 rushes, and now has 3 of the top 6 max speeds reached by a QB as a ball carrier this season. What made Jones' performance even more incredible was the fact that he was under pressure on 51.2% of his dropbacks. Jones completed 12 of his 16 passes under pressure for 192 yards and a TD, the most yards under pressure in a game since Tom Brady had 239 yards vs. Houston in 2017.