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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures that could shape Week 8
Want to see the numbers behind the numbers? NFL Research's Joseph Ferraiola dives into a fresh batch of Next Gen Stats and identifies figures that are helping to shape the NFL narrative entering Week 8 of the 2019 season.

One of the biggest concerns when Drew Brees went down with a thumb injury was the potential drop in production from Saints star WR Michael Thomas with Teddy Bridgewater under center. After five straight wins, and with Thomas tied for the NFL lead in targets with Cooper Kupp (77), the cause for concern in New Orleans is gone. In fact, Thomas has been equally as productive with Teddy at QB. Regardless of who's throwing him the ball, Thomas averages nearly the same exact air yards per target (8.5 with Brees, 8.2 with Bridgewater), catch rate (77.3% with Brees, 77.9% with Bridgewater) and passer rating when targeted (115.8 with Brees, 118.9 with Bridgewater) over his career. Thomas has also averaged more separation with Bridgewater at QB (2.9 yards per target) than with Brees (2.6). The Saints and Thomas hope the trend continues this week against Arizona and shutdown CB Patrick Peterson.

Pass rush and coverage are symbiotic elements -- if one group fails, the whole pass defense can break down. Look no further than the Motor City to see a Lions D that was just gashed for 42 points by Minnesota. Kirk Cousins had all the time in the world (3.38 seconds to throw), being pressured on just one of 34 dropbacks. Detroit's inability to generate any pass rush this season (17.9% pressure rate, second-lowest in the NFL) has put stress on their stellar secondary, which is asked to play tight man coverage. Opposing QBs have averaged 3.04 seconds time to throw, 0.17 seconds more than any other defense. The Lions have only allowed 3.0 yards of separation per target (third-lowest in NFL) and forced throws outside the numbers (49% of attempts, highest in NFL) and deep (10.8 air yards per attempt, highest in NFL). Increasing the NFL-low 15.1% blitz rate could help force quicker passes.

Zac Taylor will face his mentor, Sean McVay, in London this week. During Taylor's tenure in Los Angeles (2017-18), the Rams' offense ranked first in 11 personnel percentage (85.7%), shotgun pass percentage (84.2%), and bunch percentage (13.2%). Now in Cincinnati, Taylor has replicated that Rams' offense, using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 86.1% of offensive plays (highest in NFL), passing out of shotgun 84.2% of the time (fourth-highest in NFL), and using bunch formations on 11% of plays (highest in NFL). Yet, the 0-7 Bengals have not been as effective at these staples of McVay's offense. Cincinnati is below average in yards per play in 11 personnel (CIN: 5.2; NFL average 5.8), shotgun pass (CIN: 5.8; NFL average: 6.1), and bunch (CIN: 3.5; NFL average 4.7). Meanwhile, the Rams ranked in the top 10 in each of the aforementioned metrics from 2017-18.

Even after losing his defensive coordinators (Matt Patricia and Brian Flores) to head-coaching jobs in back-to-back offseasons, Bill Belichick hasn't missed a beat on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots' defense has been outstanding defending the pass on blitzes, under pressure and on deep passes (20-plus air yards) this season. New England is allowing the lowest passer rating (blitz: 32.9; under pressure: 0.0; deep: 11.4) and has the most interceptions (blitz: 6; under pressure: 7; deep: 5) in each of these Next Gen Stat categories. The Patriots' five INTs on deep passes is one more than the amount of completions they've allowed on deep passes this season.

Josh Allen attempted deep passes at the highest rate (18.1%) a season ago but has attempted deep passes on just 13.8% of passes in 2019 (eighth-highest in NFL). Allen's dip in deep-pass percentage may be justified, as the second-year QB has the fewest yards per attempt (6.5) and lowest passer rating (27.4) among qualifying QBs on deep passes this season. However, his struggles throwing downfield may turn around this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed five TDs on deep passes this season, tied for the second-most in the NFL. Philly's secondary struggled to defend the deep pass the last two weeks, allowing 214 yards (second-most in that span) and two TDs (tied for most in that span) on deep passes, leading to back-to-back losses against the Vikings and Cowboys.

Patrick Mahomes' knee injury has a major impact on the Chiefs' offense, especially in terms of target depth. Mahomes averaged 9.8 yards per attempt this season (fifth-most air yards per attempt in the NFL). Matt Moore averaged 7.1 air yards per attempt after replacing Mahomes in Week 7 against the Broncos, and attempted just one deep passes on 19 attempts in that game. Mahomes attempted a deep pass on 17.4% of attempts (second-highest in NFL) and has thrown eight TDs on deep passes (most in NFL) this season. Yet, through the small sample so far, Moore has averaged 15.0 air yards per attempt targeting Tyreek Hill, which is only 0.5 fewer air yards per attempt than when Mahomes has targeted Hill this season.

Kliff Kingsbury and his unique offense have clawed their way back to .500 with three straight wins. The Air Raid play-caller's latest W came on the back of what has become one of the NFL's most effective and diverse rushing attacks. The Cardinals have used 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR) at an outlier rate this season: 42.9% (no other team is over 10%). Combined with plus splits by their WRs, the Cards have been presented with favorable box counts. Arizona averages just 6.05 blockers in the box on run plays, and subsequently, is matched with just 6.25 defenders in the box (both lowest in the NFL). As a result, the Cards attack light boxes on the ground (six or fewer defenders) at the highest rate in the NFL (61.2%), up from 34.7% of rushes in 2018 (22nd). Likewise, Arizona has increased its yards gained before close-in from 0.5 in '18 (25th) to 1.8 this year (No. 1).