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The NFL's playoff picture might still be shaping up, but it's officially fantasy playoffs season! Want to stay afloat in your league's bracket? See which three players should expose favorable matchups to give your team an edge in Week 15.
Jackson is squarely in the MVP discussion and could prove to be your squad’s most valuable player this weekend. Jackson leads all QBs in rushing, but the reigning MVP is making defenses pay through the air. Jackson’s 29 passing touchdowns rank second in the NFL, and he has been particularly effective at attacking downfield. Baltimore’s superstar has thrown a league-high 18 downfield TD passes (10+ air yards) this season, while throwing just one interception, per Next Gen Stats. On downfield passes to the seams, Jackson has generated +60.2 EPA, 20.9 more than the next-closest QB.
On the flip side, Jackson’s Week 15 opponents are stuck in a tailspin. The Giants, who find themselves riding an eight-game losing streak, are susceptible to big plays. New York is allowing a league-worst 18.7 passing yards per play on deep passes (20+ air yards). Big Blue's defense contained Derek Carr last Sunday, but entering Week 14, it had allowed a 69.2% completion rate on deep passes this season. That mark stood as the highest surrendered by any defense in a season during the Next Gen Stats era. Two losses in three weeks have stunted the hype on Jackson’s MVP campaign, but Week 15 has the makings of a major bounce-back opportunity. (Check out this All-22 Playlist of Jackson’s success throwing to the seams downfield.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Considering he’s the highest-scoring player in fantasy this season and has topped 22 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, there’s a good chance you’ve ridden Jackson all the way into the fantasy playoffs. If so, gear up for another week-winning performance. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and rank dead-last on NFL Pro against QB scrambles. Add on a 29-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio that ranks second in the NFL and Jackson should easily threaten 20-plus points once again.
Jones runs angry against the Bears. The Packer-turned-Viking has been a matchup nightmare for Chicago throughout his career, collecting 12 total TDs in 14 meetings. Jones has notched 120+ scrimmage yards in three straight clashes with Chicago’s defense and gashed the unit just last month. In Week 12, Jones turned 22 carries into 106 rushing yards, while generating +23 rushing yards over expected at Soldier Field, per Next Gen Stats. Minnesota’s workhorse back scored one TD in that game and would have added a second if not for a goal-line fumble.
The Bears’ rush defense woes extend beyond Jones, too. Chicago is giving up the second-most fantasy points to RBs over the past two weeks and answers to a new play-caller following Matt Eberflus’ firing. Defensive coordinator Eric Washington stumbled out of the gates in Week 14 as his unit gave up 26.8 fantasy points to RB Isaac Guerendo -- a rookie making his first start due to injuries higher on the depth chart. Barring an unprecedented turnaround, expect Jones to continue his brilliance over the Bears this Sunday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Jones’ Week 12 performance against Chicago.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
Jones has been on a slight downswing since the midpoint of the season, but his best game over that span -- 19.9 fantasy points with a season-high 106 rushing yards -- came against the Bears just three weeks ago. In that game, Jones averaged 7.2 yards per carry and rushed for 35 yards over expected on outside runs, exploiting a weakness in the Bears defense, which ranks 27th against outside runs, per NFL Pro. Jones and the Vikings should handle Chicago once again on Monday night, making him a strong RB2 play.
Robinson has been a bright spot amid Atlanta’s four-game skid. The second-year RB has scored four rushing TDs in the last four games, adding 100+ scrimmage yards in three of those four. And Atlanta is rewarding him with high usage: Robinson’s two highest career carry totals have come in the last two weeks. Robinson has also taken on a bigger role in the Falcons’ passing attack, so look for the team to continue to force-feed him the rock.
What’s more is Robinson possesses a high floor. The Falcons RB has put up double-digit fantasy points in all 13 of his games this season. Since Week 6, he’s scored 20+ fantasy points in all but one contest. And Robinson has chance to do even more damage in Week 15.
The Raiders have allowed +213 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, good for second-most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. That mark far exceeds the amount they’ve given up over the last two seasons combined (+132). Robinson, himself, has gained +83 rushing yards over expected on such plays this year. If QB Kirk Cousins’ recent struggles (0 TDs and 8 INTs in his last four starts) signal a shift toward running the football, Robinson will be off to the races. (Check out this All-22 playlist of all of Robinson’s 22 carries from Week 14.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
Robinson has been on an absolute tear since mid-October, scoring 20-plus fantasy points in seven of his last eight games and averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game over that span (just 0.04 PPG behind Saquon Barkley for most among running backs). That includes 45.6 fantasy points over the last two weeks against the tough Chargers and Vikings run defenses. The Raiders are a little less tough and Atlanta has a much better chance of grabbing a lead against them, so this has the makings of another high-end RB1 week from Robinson.
